U.S. Drought Monitor

[Ed Mahmoud]

Good news- 12Z GFS and Canadian both suggest super-mondo Canadian front stalls across Texas mid-late week, with generous rains across much of the state.

[cycloneye]

The drought situation in Florida is turning bad.Here is the latest update:



http://drought.unl.edu/dm/pdfs/fl_dm.pdf

[cycloneye]

Eastern Puerto Rico was taken out of the yellow color in this latest drought update,Yes!!

National Drought Summary -- March 10, 2009

The discussion in the Looking Ahead section is simply a description of what the official national guidance from the National Weather Service (NWS) National Centers for Environmental Prediction is depicting for current areas of dryness and drought. The NWS forecast products utilized include the HPC 5-day QPF and 5-day Mean Temperature progs, the 6-10 Day Outlooks of Temperature and Precipitation Probability, and the 8-14 Day Outlooks of Temperature and Precipitation Probability, valid as of late Wednesday afternoon of the USDM release week. The NWS forecast web page used for this section is: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/forecasts/.

Beneficial precipitation again fell on central and northern California and into the Northwest, east of the Cascades. Little to no precipitation fell across in from southern California to the Southeast resulting in intensifying drought particularly in the southern Plains. Storm systems brought beneficial precipitation across parts of the Midwest and into the Northeast.

The East: Moderate to locally heavy precipitation (2 inches or more) fell in the Northeast with the heaviest precipitation falling in western New York. Northern New England also benefited from above normal precipitation while southern New England saw near-normal conditions.

Rain and snow that fell last week across Alabama and Georgia had no impact on the drought this week. Long-term drought impacts are still being felt in the area. Well levels have remained at extremely low conditions and streamflow, which pulsed following the storm, continues to subside. Many locations are already back to well below normal streamflow conditions. Additionally, the level of Lake Lanier has stabilized following a small pulse from the surface runoff.

Continued drier-than-average conditions in Florida resulted in expansion of severe drought (D2) in west-central Florida to the east coast and in southern Florida. Continued drying occurred through south and southeast Florida with increases in the extent of severe drought (D2) there as well. Additionally, wildfires are being reported in the area. In southern Florida, Lake Okeechobee continues to fall (12.56 feet on March 8). If precipitation does not increase, further degradation may be necessary in this area in the coming weeks.

The Great Lakes Region: Most of the drought-affected areas of the region missed the beneficial precipitation that fell just to their south. Continued long-term deficits resulted in unchanged drought classification in this region.

The Plains and Mississippi River Delta: A week of much below-average precipitation from Mississippi to the southern Plains led to expansion of abnormally dry conditions and moderate, severe, and extreme drought.

Abnormal dryness (D0) increased through south-central Mississippi due to increasing short-term precipitation deficits. In Louisiana, the extent of moderate drought (D1) increased northward from the Gulf Coast. Mounting deficits in the area are showing up in streamflow and well levels which are beginning to run below to well below normal.

In Texas, moderate drought conditions (D1) expanded in the east, to the south along the Mexico border, and in the west, running up into New Mexico. Severe (D2) and extreme (D3) drought both expanded from the core drought area in the south-central part of the state. According to the US Department of Agriculture, the majority acreage of the state is suffering from short topsoil moisture. Likewise, most of the wheat, oats, and range and pasture land is in poor to very poor condition.
In Oklahoma, abnormal dryness expanded slightly northeastward, as did moderate drought (D1). Severe drought (D2) expanded northward to the Canadian River. Wildfires are beginning to affect the area but are nowhere near as extreme as the 2005-2006 winter season.

Abnormal dry conditions (D0) expanded northward again this week through western Kansas and into southern Nebraska in keeping with 30 to 90-day precipitation totals that have been less than 25 to 50% of average.

The West: Heavy precipitation once again fell on central and eastern California and into western Nevada further helping to ameliorate drought in the hardest hit areas of these states. Reports of one to three plus inches of precipitation were common through the area early in this US Drought Monitor period. Extreme drought (D3) was eliminated. Severe drought (D2) improved in the Sacramento and San Joaquin Basins, as well as in the Russian, Yuba, and American River watersheds and through much of western Nevada. Reservoir storage continued to increase on many rivers with Shasta Reservoir in the Sacramento Basin increasing its elevation over 10 feet this week.

Moderate drought (D1) eased slightly in southern Idaho and northwest Montana but built into northern Cascades of Washington. Abnormally dry conditions (D0) expanded in eastern Washington.

Hawaii, Alaska and Puerto Rico: Drought conditions remained unchanged across the Hawaiian Islands. Recent rains in windward locations were significant and will contribute to easing drought conditions if they continue. Above normal precipitation alleviated abnormal dryness in Alaska. Recent heavy precipitation and ensuing high streamflow eased the abnormal dryness in eastern Puerto Rico.

Looking Ahead: The northern tier states are anticipated to receive the bulk of precipitation during March 12 – March 16, 2009. Much needed precipitation is expected for much of Texas in the upcoming days. Over an inch of rain is possible in central Texas with lesser amounts falling in the Plains, across the Gulf Coast, and into the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. Additional, lesser amounts are possible in the Southwest as well as through the Midwest and into the Northeast. The Northwest may also see some relief. Much of the upper tier of the country, as well as the Southwest, is expected to see little to no precipitation.

For the ensuing 5 days (March 17 – 21, 2009), the odds favor cooler-than-normal conditions along the entire country east of the Mississippi River. Most of the Plains and the West are likely to see normal to above normal temperatures. Normal to below normal precipitation is likely over most of the country with the exception of the Northwest and the Northeast. Odds favor dry and cool for Alaska.

http://drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html

[vbhoutex]

Next update should change for a lot of Texas even though it will not take us out of a drought situation. At least it will be a nice break for a few days.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I don't expect any significant rain in Tampa Bay until late June 2009...La Nina is simply
too dry

[Stephanie]

Next update should change for a lot of Texas even though it will not take us out of a drought situation. At least it will be a nice break for a few days.

I was happy to see the Southern Jet Stream provide the southern states with some rain this past week.

[HouTXmetro]

Well SE Texas is getting drenched... Can't say the same for Central Texas... I know they gotsome rain but it appears no where near what we got and it has ended for them while the drenchingrains continue to saturated SE Texas.

[jinftl]

Can't seem to squeeze out more than an isolated shower in the morning or evening on the ocean breeze in central and south florida....some areas have received a trace to a few hundrdths of an inch....with no significant rain chances in the forecast.

kbdi numbers continue to deteriorate to unprecedented readings for such a large area of the state...



Month after month of rainfall totals like this have led us to the start of what could be a record-breaking brushfire season:

Fort Lauderdale (airport) Rain Totals:
November 2008 = 0.59" (-3.98" below normal)
December 2008 = 0.13" (-2.52" below normal)
January 2009 = 0.04" (-2.90" below normal)
February 2009 = 0.22" (-2.48" below normal)
March 2009 to date = 0.02" (-1.19" below normal)
5-month Total (11/1/08 - 3/14/09) = 1.00" (-13.07")

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Pretty cool animation from Austin American Statesmen showing the progression of the current Texas drought.

http://www.statesman.com/news/content/w ... ought.html

[cycloneye]

Latest Drought Update

National Drought Summary -- March 17, 2009

The discussion in the Looking Ahead section is simply a description of what the official national guidance from the National Weather Service (NWS) National Centers for Environmental Prediction is depicting for current areas of dryness and drought. The NWS forecast products utilized include the HPC 5-day QPF and 5-day Mean Temperature progs, the 6-10 Day Outlooks of Temperature and Precipitation Probability, and the 8-14 Day Outlooks of Temperature and Precipitation Probability, valid as of late Wednesday afternoon of the USDM release week. The NWS forecast web page used for this section is: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/forecasts/.

Texas, North Carolina and Virginia received beneficial rainfall this week, with some areas greening up just in time for St. Patrick’s Day. Colorado’s Front Range and Florida are among the regions that experienced worsening drought conditions.

The Plains: Drought relief finally came in the form of significant rainfall to areas of eastern, central, and northern Texas into Oklahoma. One-category improvements were made in a swath from west of San Antonio to southeastern Oklahoma. Weekly precipitation totals of three to five inches were common throughout this region. In the Big Bend, moderate drought was reduced to abnormally dry conditions (D0) in Presidio and western Brewster counties, with over an inch of rainfall this week. In eastern Texas, wet conditions also prevailed east of Interstate 45, expanding the area of D0.

The South: Florida’s drought conditions continue to degrade and a lack of rainfall pushed the east coastal counties into the severe category from Kennedy Space Center to West Palm Beach. On the west coast north of Naples, another dry week caused a one-category deterioration to moderate, or D1 conditions. The Suwanee and Santa Fe river basins in the north have had consistently low streamflow. In combination with little or no precipitation, this region fell into moderate drought as well. The central coast of Louisiana continues to experience a deficit of precipitation over the last 90 days, and moderate drought was introduced. The southwest counties of the state locally received two inches or more of precipitation, bringing a one-category improvement there. Rainfall amounts as heavy as four to six inches locally fell this week in central Alabama and east into Georgia, but this was primarily in the drought-free region so no change was made in these states.

The East: Southeastern Pennsylvania, northern Maryland and northern Delaware are still dry after one of the driest Februarys on record in the region. For the last 90 days, locations in this area have measured about half of normal precipitation, with deficits of four to six inches. Abnormally dry, or D0, was introduced. In southwestern Virginia, the extent of moderate drought was reduced due to significant rainfall. The steady, multi-day rainfall event was welcome and brought 1.5 to 3.5 inches of precipitation across this area. In southern Virginia and North Carolina, drought conditions improved this week, also reflecting a four-day rainfall event that increased streamflow and raised groundwater levels. Two to three inches fell in central North Carolina into Virginia, as abnormally dry conditions improved to near normal. Western North Carolina also experienced improvement in the region of moderate drought, and the D1 region was scaled back.

The West: In California, an expansion of moderate drought (D1) was introduced in eastern Fresno and Tulare counties over the Sierra Nevada crest, due to lack of precipitation over recent weeks and low reservoir storage. Colorado’s Front Range continues to experience dry conditions. Pueblo has received just .08 inch of precipitation since January 1, and Colorado Springs has measured .26 inch in the same period. As a result, moderate drought conditions are depicted on the map. The area along the Yellowstone River in Montana, between Miles City and Sidney, has been abnormally dry this winter. The last major winter storm to reach this region was in mid-October, and there is little snow cover on the ground. D0 was introduced in Prairie, Dawson and Richland counties. Abnormally dry conditions have also expanded in central Montana due to low winter precipitation and no snow cover.

Hawaii, Alaska and Puerto Rico: Rainfall over the last two weeks on the Big Island has improved drought in the southern area. The severe and moderate drought regions have reduced in extent this week. Alaska and Puerto Rico had no change this week.

Looking Ahead: Early in the next drought monitoring period, a front is forecast to push its way through the southern Plains and off the east coast. Moisture from the Gulf of Mexico could produce some precipitation from the central United States into the northeast. Over the weekend a system will move onshore in the West. Coastal regions are projected to receive heavy rainfall with snow at higher elevations. Orographically enhanced precipitation will fall on the western slopes of the mountains from the Sierra Nevada to the Rocky Mountains. Early next week, the eastern states will have a strong ridge following the weekend cold front that could prevent much rainfall. In the longer range overall, the six to ten day forecast calls for above average temperatures throughout the Plains states from North Dakota to western Tennessee, and below normal temperatures over all of Alaska and the southern tip of Florida. For the same period, precipitation is projected to be below normal in northwest Alaska, the Intermountain region and Southwest, and East Coast. Above normal precipitation for the six to ten day period is expected in the Pacific Northwest and central states.

http://drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html

[vbhoutex]

The rains in this area didn't help as much as I thought they might. Ah well, some is better than none.

[cycloneye]

Below is the latest update of the drought situation in the U.S.

National Drought Summary -- March 24, 2009

The discussion in the Looking Ahead section is simply a description of what the official national guidance from the National Weather Service (NWS) National Centers for Environmental Prediction is depicting for current areas of dryness and drought. The NWS forecast products utilized include the HPC 5-day QPF and 5-day Mean Temperature progs, the 6-10 Day Outlooks of Temperature and Precipitation Probability, and the 8-14 Day Outlooks of Temperature and Precipitation Probability, valid as of late Wednesday afternoon of the USDM release week. The NWS forecast web page used for this section is: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/forecasts/.

The Southeastern and Mid-Atlantic States: Short-term dryness continued to intensify across the middle Ohio Valley and the Mid-Atlantic States, resulting in a broad expansion of abnormal dryness (D0) and moderate drought (D1). In the region of D1, Baltimore, Maryland, has endured its driest start to a calendar year during the nearly 140-year period of record. Through March 24, Baltimore’s year-to-date precipitation stood at 3.79 inches, just 40% of normal.

Meanwhile, more information about the impact of the previous week’s 2- to 6-inch Southeastern rainfall totals resulted in additional reductions in drought coverage in intensity. Extreme drought (D3) was removed from the southern Appalachians, and the coverage of severe drought (D2) was reduced. Much of the remaining moderate drought (D1) in east-central and southeastern Alabama was also removed, as stream flows in this area remained robust in the wake of mid-March downpours.

Heavy rain fell in southeastern Florida, mainly in and near some of the east coast cities, but largely bypassed the remainder of the parched peninsula. March 17-21 rainfall totaled 2.81 inches in Ft. Lauderdale, with nearby amounts locally ranging from 6 to 10 inches. However, Ft. Lauderdale recently completed its driest winter on record, with a December-February rainfall total of just 0.39 inch (5% of normal). Nevertheless, some severe drought (D2) was removed from the hardest-hit areas of southeastern Florida, replaced by abnormal dryness and moderate drought (D0 and D1). Elsewhere, there was some modest expansion of severe drought (D2) deeper into interior southern Florida, including all of Lake Okeechobee. The level of Lake Okeechobee has been falling steadily since a few weeks after the August 2008 passage of Tropical Storm Fay, and the lake’s average surface elevation on March 24 stood at 12.32 feet (about 2 feet below the 1965-2007 average for the date).

The Great Lakes Region: Precipitation associated with a major spring storm moved into the upper Great Lakes region toward the end of the monitoring period. Rainfall totals in excess of 1 inch resulted in the removal of abnormal dryness (D0) from northeastern Minnesota, and a slight reduction in the coverage of abnormal dryness and moderate drought (D0 and D1) in south-central Minnesota.

The Plains: A strong, early-spring storm brought a variety of weather conditions to the nation’s mid-section from March 22-24. Blizzard conditions engulfed the High Plains from eastern Wyoming and western Nebraska into the western Dakotas, while severe thunderstorms raked portions of the east-central and southeastern Plains. More than a dozen tornadoes were spotted on March 23 from the middle Missouri Valley southward into Oklahoma.

Abnormal dryness (D0) was eliminated from western North Dakota, where snowfall totals of 1 to 2 feet were observed. The coverage of D0 was reduced in some snow-affected areas, including central and east-central Wyoming. However, the storm brought little or no precipitation to the central and southern High Plains, where pastures, rangeland, and winter grains continued to suffer. Moderate drought (D1) was introduced across much of eastern New Mexico and west-central Texas, and expanded in southeastern Colorado. Severe drought (D2) was expanded slightly in western Oklahoma, while abnormal dryness (D0) was lifted northward to near the Kansas-Nebraska border. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, topsoil moisture across the western one-third of Kansas ranged from 86% very short to short in the northwest to 100% in the southwest. USDA also reported that more than half (57%) of the Texas winter wheat crop was rated in very poor to poor condition on March 22. Elsewhere, Oklahoma’s wheat was rated 40% very poor to poor on March 22, along with 19% of the crop in Colorado and 18% in Kansas.

The West: During February, California’s water-supply situation improved slightly, with the state’s 151 intrastate reservoirs collectively gaining 2.365 million acre feet (771 billion gallons). On March 1, the state’s cumulative water storage stood at 18.046 million acre feet (5.9 trillion gallons), 72% of average for the date, according to the California Department of Water Resources.

Improvements in storage were due to stormy weather in February and early March that more than doubled the water content of the Sierra Nevada snow pack from 10 to 25 inches. During an average year, the Sierra Nevada snow pack contains an average of approximately 29 inches of liquid by April 1. The mountain snow, which melts during the spring and is captured by a network of reservoirs, provides a crucial source of water for northern and central California. (The Colorado River basin, which includes Lakes Powell and Mead, is also an important source of California’s water.)

A 2004 report by the Department of Interior indicated that at the beginning of the 21st century, 79% of California’s water was used for agricultural purposes, 17% went to municipal requirements, and the remaining 4% was directed toward industry. Of California’s total water use in 2000, 40% came from wells and other ground sources, while 60% came from surface supplies such as rivers and reservoirs. From 1950 to 2000, California’s annual water use nearly doubled, from 25.0 to 43.1 million acre feet (MAF). During the same period, the state’s annual agricultural water consumption climbed from 23.1 to 34.2 MAF, while domestic use surged from 1.6 to 7.2 MAF.

Much of the increase in California’s water consumption has been due to a population explosion. According to the California Water Plan, the state’s population between 1950 and 2004 surged from 10.7 to 36.5 million, with annual growth rates in recent years around 600,000 people. Another issue complicating the assessment of drought in California is environmental requirements. The California Water Plan (2005 Update) estimated 39.4 MAF of water is used for environmental flows, which are defined to include in-stream requirements, wild and scenic river flows, required Delta outflow, and managed wetlands water use. Some of the environmental water is re-used by urban and agricultural water users.

During the March 17-23 monitoring period, light to occasionally moderate amounts of precipitation (mostly 2 inches or less) fell from the Pacific Northwest eastward into the northern Rockies and southward into the Sierra Nevada. In all locations, totals were not sufficient to appreciably change the water-supply outlook for the spring and summer of 2009.

Farther south, precipitation continued to largely bypass eastern Utah and neighboring areas, where abnormal dryness (D0) was introduced. In the new D0 region, water year-to-date (October 1 – March 24) precipitation averaged just 70 to 80 percent of normal, while the water equivalent of the high-elevation snow pack ranged from 60 to 75 percent of normal. Elsewhere, moderate drought (D1) was expanded in parts of southern New Mexico, where both seasonal precipitation and snow water content are below 50 percent of normal in some river basins.

Alaska, Hawaii, and Puerto Rico: Alaska and Puerto Rico remained free of dryness and drought. Meanwhile, no changes were introduced in Hawaii, despite locally heavy showers in windward locations. Hawaiian drought persists primarily in leeward sections of Molokai, Maui, and the Big Island.

Looking Ahead: For the remainder of the week, a major spring storm system crossing the U.S. will produce heavy snow in the central and southern Rockies on March 26-27 and the southern Plains on March 27-28. Snowfall accumulations in excess of 8 inches may occur from the Rockies of Colorado and New Mexico southeastward into parts of Oklahoma and Texas’ northern panhandle. Farther east, torrential rainfall could result in March 26-30 rainfall totals as high as 3 to 9 inches from the lower Mississippi Valley to the southern Appalachians. Severe thunderstorms, bearing high winds, large hail, and isolated tornadoes, could accompany the Southeastern downpours. Meanwhile, as much as 1 to 2 inches of rain will fall from the Ohio and middle Mississippi Valleys into the Northeast. Elsewhere, mostly dry conditions will persist through March 30 in southern Florida and from California to the lower Rio Grande Valley, while cool, showery weather will persist in the northern Rockies and the Pacific Northwest.

The CPC 6- to 10-day forecast for March 31 – April 4 calls for cooler-than-normal weather across the western half of the U.S., while near- to above-normal temperatures will prevail in the East. Meanwhile, above-normal precipitation from the Pacific Northwest to the upper Great Lakes region will contrast with drier-than-normal conditions from California to the southern Plains.

http://drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html

[Stephanie]

We're getting some decent rain today and then over the weekend. I REALLY don't want to go into the summer with a drought - I know noone does.

[cycloneye]

Below is the latest update of the drought situation.Texas remains as the state with the most intense drought conditions.

The Southeastern and Mid-Atlantic States: After expansion into the region last week, most of the Mid-Atlantic stays as is this week, with the heavier rains falling more to the south. As a result, some minor improvements are noted in Virginia with a slight trimming of the D0-D1 in the extreme southwestern reaches of the state where the best rains (2 to 3 inches) were reported. The region still bears watching as we enter into the higher demand seasons of spring and summer.

It was a completely different story, however, in the Southeast this past week as heavy rains pounded the region and altered the landscape from one of drought to one of deluges. Widespread totals of 3 to 6 inches or more were reported across the Gulf Coast states from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle and up into northern Georgia and the western Carolinas as well. Marked changes of improvement are noted on the heels of this drought-breaking rain, with removal of D1-D2 in Louisiana, D1 in southern Mississippi and Alabama, and D2 in northeastern Georgia and western North Carolina. A large chunk of the D1H remaining in Georgia has been pushed to the northeast corner and to the east in the central and southern parts of the state. This reflects the lagging recovery of hydrologic drought (below-normal streamflow and groundwater levels), which is typically slower to come out of drought, much in the same way it is slower going into drought. A reduced pocket of D2 remains in upstate South Carolina where streams and groundwater levels are still lagging behind in their recovery at this time. In addition, D0 was removed from all but extreme northern Louisiana, all of Mississippi, and all but a sliver of extreme east-central Alabama along with the Florida Panhandle, with the potential for more heavy rains over the next week. The rest of Florida remains unchanged this week. Abnormally dry (D0) conditions in central and southern Tennessee have been eroded away and pushed east. Worth noting is the fact that this is the first time since February 2007 that Alabama has been drought free.

The Great Lakes Region: Status quo across Minnesota and Wisconsin this week, with no changes being made in the region.

The Plains: Most of the heaviest rains fell across eastern Oklahoma and eastern Texas last week, bringing with them improvement and a westward shift of moderate drought (D1) and abnormal dryness (D0). Amounts of 3-5 inches were common across southeastern Kansas, eastern Oklahoma, and eastern Texas.

Not everyone shared in the rain, though. Deep southern Texas hasn’t seen ample rains for more than six months now, leading to a deterioration and expansion of D2 and D3 into the Brownsville area.

The West: It was a relatively quiet week all in all over the drought-affected areas of the West, leading to no changes this week. Seasonal and water year (since October 1) deficits still bear watching as the dry (demand) season is just around the corner now. Of additional benefit is the fact that all but California saw a cooler-than-normal week.

Alaska, Hawaii, and Puerto Rico: Recent wetness in the central part of Maui has led to improvement there, but D1 still remains. The rest of the Hawaii remains unchanged this week.

Looking Ahead: For the next five days (April 2-6), cooler temperatures are expected across most of the United States except for the upper Northeast and the extreme southern reaches of Texas and Florida. As for precipitation, the best chances for significant precipitation in this period seem to be centered over the Pacific Northwest, the central Rockies, and the deep Southeast, with several systems lined up and ready to go.

The CPC 6- to 10-day forecast (April 7 – April 11) is showing a better chance for the cooler trend to continue across the country’s mid-section, with better odds of above-normal temperatures in southern Florida and the chain of islands rimming the Gulf of Alaska. The best chance for above-normal precipitation mirrors the cooler temperatures across the country’s mid-section. The areas expected to see below-normal precipitation include northeastern Alaska and the states along the U.S./Canada border from Washington to Wisconsin and Michigan’s western Upper Peninsula. This is certainly a bit of good news for those flood-affected folks in the Red River basin in North Dakota and Minnesota.

http://drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html

[cycloneye]

Here is the latest update of the drought situation in parts of the U.S.Some good news for parts of Texas.

National Drought Summary -- April 7, 2009

The discussion in the Looking Ahead section is simply a description of what the official national guidance from the National Weather Service (NWS) National Centers for Environmental Prediction is depicting for current areas of dryness and drought. The NWS forecast products utilized include the HPC 5-day QPF and 5-day Mean Temperature progs, the 6-10 Day Outlooks of Temperature and Precipitation Probability, and the 8-14 Day Outlooks of Temperature and Precipitation Probability, valid as of late Wednesday afternoon of the USDM release week. The NWS forecast web page used for this section is: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/forecasts/.

Special Announcement: This week marks the 500th release of the weekly U.S. Drought Monitor.

The Southeastern and Mid-Atlantic States: Another round of heavy rains tracked across the Southeast, bringing totals of 3 to 6 inches or more across southern Alabama, southern Georgia and northern Florida. This has led to some marked changes in southern Georgia and northern Florida on this week’s map. Both D0 and D1 have been removed from these areas, leaving eastern Tennessee and the western Carolinas in D0 and D1 after the removal of D2 from upstate South Carolina. After good rains only a few weeks ago, southern Florida has slipped back again with the expansion of D2 for all areas below Lake Okeechobee except for the extreme southeastern coast around Ft. Lauderdale, which remains in D1 for now. Temperatures also ran well above normal across southern Florida last week. This, coupled with the drought, has also served to exacerbate the fire potential across this region.

To the north in the Mid-Atlantic, the rains were welcomed, but were much more modest with totals running on the order of 1 to 3 inches across parts of western and northwestern Virginia, with lesser amounts reported in Maryland, New Jersey and Pennsylvania. Changes this week include a trimming of the D0 in northeastern Kentucky, southern Ohio and southwestern West Virginia. As a result, D1 has retreated northward out of southwestern Virginia and up into northern Virginia and eastern Maryland and has spread across into Delaware. A slight reduction of D0 occurred this week across northern Pennsylvania, but D0 expanded slightly up into southern New England via Connecticut. In addition, the entire Mid-Atlantic is now in an “AH” designation because the past 30 days have been quite dry as we move deeper into spring, carrying year-to-date deficits along as well.

The Great Lakes Region: Dryness continues to persist in the upper Great Lakes region as we move forward with the spring thaw. This pattern results in a slight expansion of D1 in the western Upper Peninsula of Michigan. Abnormally dry (D0) has also pushed eastward across the Upper Peninsula and down into the northern reaches of the lower Michigan peninsula.

The Plains: After a pretty active pattern the past couple of weeks, it was a bit quieter across most of the Plains last week. A reassessment of the heavy snows and rains that tracked through the region before this period has resulted in a few improvements to the depiction in parts of Kansas, Colorado, western Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. Severe drought has been pushed out of the Oklahoma Panhandle and D0-D1 have been trimmed in these parts as well. More rain will be needed to keep the area from slipping right back into severe drought (D2). The status quo holds this week across Texas. Areas that bear watching as we head deeper into spring are central Kansas and central and eastern Nebraska, which are quite dry for the year. This week we see a slight push of D0 into southeastern Nebraska, but larger changes could be in store if spring rains continue to miss these areas.

The West: The Pacific NW was the recipient of cooler temperatures and more than ample precipitation this past week as heavy snows fell in the northern Cascades. This has brought up some of the basins’ snowpack, but there are still some lingering pockets of D0-D1 in northern Washington state where basins are still only running at 70-89% of normal for the winter, according to USDA-NRCS. The good news is that these numbers reflect a positive increase in projected streamflow compared to a month ago. In fact, this is the case across much of Oregon, Washington, Idaho, Montana and northwestern Wyoming. On the flip side, March wasn’t as kind to the Southwest, where projected streamflows have been adjusted lower for the remainder of the runoff season, particularly in Arizona and New Mexico where snowpack has only been running at around 50% or less in most cases. Reductions in streamflow volume forecasts are also expected in basins across southern Utah and Colorado.

This has resulted in several changes to this week’s map. Of note, D0 and D1 have been significantly reduced in Montana and western Idaho. This is also the case in northern Washington state on the western slopes of the northern Cascades where precipitation was abundant and a slight trimming of D0 and D1 is noted. Pockets of dryness and drought remain, though, including an introduction of D1 in eastern Idaho where streamflows along the Big Lost and Little Wood rivers are running at historical or near-historical lows.

Improvements are noted this week in both Wyoming and Colorado where cooler temperatures and good precipitation are bringing a late boost to the snowpack there. Both D0 and D1 have been trimmed slightly in western Wyoming, and even more so in extreme southeastern Wyoming near Cheyenne, where they are not in drought as of this week. To the south, conditions have also improved on the water year in central and western Colorado with the trimming of D1 and a reduction of D0 in the west as well.

California has taken a step back this week after a month of very little in the way of precipitation across the valleys and coastal areas. The snows and rains in the eastern part of the state have been enough to stave off a worsening of conditions thus far. This is noted in an encroachment of D2 to the south and a connection of the D2 in the south with the D2 north of San Francisco on the northwest coast and up into the northern Sacramento Valley. Precipitation deficits of 6-16 inches (25-75% of normal) of rain have accumulated since October 2008 in these parts. This is on top of longer-term deficits going back almost three years now.

Alaska, Hawaii, and Puerto Rico: Conditions across Hawaii remain unchanged this week after some improvement last week on Maui. Both Alaska and Puerto Rico are not showing signs of any significant dryness or drought at this time.

Looking Ahead: For the next five days (April 9-13), the best chances for significant precipitation seem to be found along the coastal reaches of both Oregon and Washington, northern California, the northern and central Rockies, the central and southern Plains, and the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Temperatures are expected to be below-normal for almost the entire country over this time period as well.

The CPC 6- to 10-day forecast (April 14 – April 18) is calling for better odds of below-normal precipitation across California, the Upper Great Lakes, and the Northeast. The prospects for rain are brighter across the Rockies, most of the Great Plains, the Southeast and the Mid-Atlantic. Temperatures are expected to be above normal across southern Florida and the Upper Great Lakes region. Cooler temperatures are forecasted for the central and southern Plains, the central Rockies, the Southwest, the Great Basin and California.

http://drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html

[WeatherLovingDoc]

cycloneye,

I believe the District of Columbia has officially been lifted from moderate drought to abnormally dry with the last weeks of chronic, low amounts of rain. Do Northern to Mid Virginia remain in moderate drought?

Thanks for starting this interesting and on topic thread. I'm reminded that the Great Depression's Dust Bowl weather effect had intense influence on the length of US suffering.

[jinftl]

Extreme Drought showing up for the first time in interior south florida...



From report:

The rains largely missed central and southern Florida during this USDM week. In southern Florida, D2 expanded and a spot of D3 was added to reflect worsening rainfall deficits and groundwater levels, and growing fire danger. The South Florida Water Management District on April 10 issued an emergency burn ban order for campfires and other open burning on District lands open for recreation. Dry season (starting November 1) rainfall through April 12 was 3.72 inches at Miami (which is 9.62 inches below normal), 4.08 inches at Fort Lauderdale (12.98 inches below normal), and 2.57 inches at Belle Glades (9.80 inches below normal).

[cycloneye]

The latest Update of the drought areas

National Drought Summary -- April 21, 2009

The discussion in the Looking Ahead section is simply a description of what the official national guidance from the National Weather Service (NWS) National Centers for Environmental Prediction is depicting for current areas of dryness and drought. The NWS forecast products utilized include the HPC 5-day QPF and 5-day Mean Temperature progs, the 6-10 Day Outlooks of Temperature and Precipitation Probability, and the 8-14 Day Outlooks of Temperature and Precipitation Probability, valid as of late Wednesday afternoon of the USDM release week. The NWS forecast web page used for this section is: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/forecasts/.

As one weather system exited the Northeast at the beginning of this U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) week, another system entered the country from the west. The second large, strong, wet low pressure system slowly moved across the country during the week, dumping beneficial precipitation over many drought areas from the central Rockies to the East Coast. Much of the country, from the central and southern Plains to the Atlantic coast, received an inch or more of precipitation, with locally heavier amounts.

The Eastern States: While an inch or more of rain fell over the northern and western portions of the drought area in Florida during this USDM week, the southern areas received considerably less rain. About two-thirds of the topsoil and two-thirds of the subsoil, statewide, remained in the very short to short categories, with 40 percent of the pasture rated very poor to poor by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) as of April 19. Lake Okeechobee continued to drop, down to a level of 11.56 feet as of April 20 (normal is 13.89 feet). D0-D1-D2 were pulled back in the northern and west central drought areas of Florida, while D2 and D3 expanded in southern Florida.

An inch or more of rain fell across Ohio and the D1 area of the Mid-Atlantic States. The wet conditions of this week and last week resulted in the elimination of the D1. D0 was pulled back in southern Virginia, West Virginia, and Ohio, but spots of D0 were left in southwest Ohio and western West Virginia where long-term precipitation deficits remained. Streamflow and soil moisture improved, with only 6 percent of topsoil moisture short and 9 percent of pasture rated very poor to poor in Virginia. While soil moisture improved, the USDA rated 22 percent of pasture land still very poor to poor in West Virginia. Groundwater levels improved but remained low at some wells, and widespread year-to-date precipitation deficits of 4+ inches, with 6 inches or more in some areas, persisted. D0 remained over much of the Mid-Atlantic area to reflect long-term precipitation deficits, and the impacts designator was changed to H to reflect lingering hydrological concerns.

Rains fell over the southern Appalachian drought area this week. But the 1+ inch rains were not enough to eliminate long-term deficits. Eleven percent of North Carolina’s pasture was rated very poor to poor, and 90-day precipitation deficits ranged from 3 to 6 inches and 12-month deficits exceeded 10 inches, and some wells indicated continued low ground water, in the southern mountains of western North Carolina. While precipitation deficits have been reduced and streamflows improved in northeast Georgia, lake levels (Lanier and Hartwell) continued low. Lake Hartwell’s level was 654.13 feet, or 5.87 feet below full pool, as of April 16. No change was made to the depiction across the Carolinas and Georgia to reflect continuing hydrological drought impacts.

The Great Lakes and Upper Mississippi Valley Region: The half-inch or more of precipitation that fell across parts of the Minnesota to Michigan drought area had little impact on the long-term deficits. D2 was pulled back from the Minneapolis-St. Paul area, but no other changes were made this week. April 19 USDA reports rated 38 percent of soil moisture very short to short and 43 percent of pastures very poor to poor in Wisconsin, and 18 percent of topsoil and 17 percent of subsoil moisture very short to short in Minnesota. In Iowa, 21 percent of the range and pasture land was rated very poor to poor.

The Plains: The slow-moving low pressure system dropped an inch or more of precipitation over a widespread area of the central to southern Plains this week, with very heavy rains deluging parts of the drought areas. Two to four inches of rain and melted equivalent of snow fell over parts of western Kansas, western Nebraska, and northeast Colorado. Southeast Texas was deluged with over 6 inches of rain over large areas. Locally heavier amounts were recorded, with the station at Schulenberg, Texas, reporting 12.15 inches. The Harris County Flood Control station measured 6.26 inches of rain in one hour, which is comparable to the hourly rainfall rates that occurred with Tropical Storm Allison. After the rains, College Station, Texas, was above normal for 2009 and had the third wettest spring, so far, based on data going back to 1951. As of April 19, the USDA rated Texas crops in very poor to poor condition for 58 percent of the range and pasture land, 73 percent of oats, 74 percent of wheat, and 40 percent of sorghum. USDA ratings for Oklahoma topsoil moisture improved from 34 percent very short to short last week to 27 percent this week, and from 61 percent very short to short for subsoil last week to 55 percent this week. Oklahoma crops were rated 32 percent very poor to poor for pasture and range land, 60 percent for winter wheat, 65 percent for oats. Pasture and range land was rated 46 percent very poor to poor in Colorado and 17 percent very poor to poor in Kansas.

D0 was eliminated from southwest South Dakota, western Nebraska, and southeast Wyoming, and pulled back over Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma, and the Texas panhandle. D1 contracted over Colorado, western Oklahoma, and the Texas panhandle. D2 shrunk in western Oklahoma and adjacent Texas. D1, D2, and D3 were shaved in Texas from the Pecos River region across parts of the Edwards Plateau. D0 to D4 were dented in southeast Texas. The A impacts designator was pulled down to the vicinity of the Colorado-New Mexico and Kansas-Oklahoma state lines. The remaining D0-D1 in Colorado and D0 triangular wedge in north central Kansas were given an H impacts designator.

In North Dakota, D0 was expanded over the western counties where 30-90 day precipitation deficits were growing and which were farthest removed from the recent flooding in central and eastern North Dakota. The lack of snowfall, increasing temperatures, low humidity, and windy weather were drying out the western grasslands and increasing fire danger. D4 was expanded slightly in southern Texas to better reflect long-term severe moisture shortages.

The West: An inch or more of precipitation fell from this week’s weather system over the coastal and Cascade mountains of the Pacific Northwest, and over pockets of the interior West. Parts of Nevada received up to 3 feet of snow, with snowpack water content increasing to 110 to 160 percent of average at some eastern and northern basin SNOTEL stations. The snow will help with soil moisture and ground water recharge in the weeks ahead. But the system failed to deliver widespread areas of heavy rain and snow across the West this week. Nevertheless, soil moisture and pastures continued to improve in Wyoming, with April 19 USDA ratings 7 percent short for topsoil and 15 percent poor for pasture and range land. D2 in Nevada was shaved, D1 was pulled back in northeast Nevada, southern Idaho, southwest Wyoming, and northwest Utah, and D0 was dented in northern Utah where beneficial snow improved snowpack conditions and water year (October-present) precipitation deficits.

The southern areas of the West were largely missed by the system. The USDA reported April 19 that some dryland grain fields in California were showing poor development due to lack of rainfall. In Arizona, 37 percent of the range and pasture land was rated very poor to poor, while in New Mexico, 53 percent of the range and pasture land and 61 percent of wheat were rated very poor to poor, and 89 percent of the soil moisture was rated very short to short. D1 and D2 were expanded in southern California, southeast Arizona, and southern New Mexico, and D0 expanded in Arizona and New Mexico, to reflect the precipitation deficit pattern of the last 30 days to 6 months. An H impacts designator was added to southern Arizona.

Alaska, Hawaii, and Puerto Rico: Pastures and general vegetation improved this week over parts of Hawaii, so the D3A over the Big Island was improved to D2A. In Alaska, some streams along the southern coast were below normal, and several stations in the area had below-normal precipitation over the last 7 days out to the last 12 months. D0 was introduced to the southern Alaska coast at the driest stations. Puerto Rico was not showing signs of any significant dryness or drought at this time.

Looking Ahead: Another slow-moving weather system is expected to track across the country during the next USDM week (April 23-27), bringing half an inch or more of precipitation to a large area from the northern and central Rockies to the Great Plains and western Great Lakes. Heavier amounts are expected from central Kansas to central Wisconsin. Above-normal temperatures are forecast for the eastern two-thirds of the Lower 48 States, with below-normal temperatures moving in from the northwest as the weather system progresses across the country.

According to the CPC 6- to 10-day and 8- to 14-day forecasts (covering the period April 28-May 6), precipitation chances will be above normal over Alaska and the central Plains to Mid-Atlantic States, but below normal across the Southwest. The period should start out dry in the Southeast and Northwest, but precipitation chances might improve later in the period. Warmer-than-normal temperatures are expected over Alaska and the southern Plains to Mid-Atlantic States, with colder-than-normal temperatures forecasted from parts of the West into the northern and central Great Plains to western Great Lakes.

http://drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html

[cycloneye]

The latest weekly drought update

The East: Light rain continued to chip away at long-term precipitation deficits in the Mid-Atlantic region through April 22, followed by an early-season heat wave from April 25-28. Locations such as Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, and Virginia’s Dulles Airport reached or exceeded 90 degrees F on 3 consecutive days from April 25-27. However, Dulles Airport’s year-to-date precipitation deficit through April 28 stood at just 3.15 inches, down from 4.88 inches on March 25.

Meanwhile, abnormal dryness (D0) expanded both northward into southern New York and western New England, and southward through eastern North Carolina and into northeastern South Carolina. The northward expansion of dryness was driven by low streamflows and precipitation deficits during the last 3 months. In Scranton-Wilkes Barre, Pennsylvania, the year-to-date precipitation through April 28 was just 5.52 inches (54% of normal). Farther south, the Highway 31 fire near Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, charred more than 19,000 acres of vegetation and claimed more than six dozen structures.

Florida’s peninsula continued to suffer through an unusually dry cool season, resulting in additional expansion of severe to extreme drought (D2 to D3). Through April 28, dry-season precipitation (since November 1, 2008) totaled just 2.31 inches (20% of normal) in Naples and 4.74 inches (25%) in Fort Lauderdale. The Deep fire near Miles City, Florida, 30% contained by April 28, charred at least 24,000 acres of vegetation and resulted in closures of I-75 (Alligator Alley) across the Everglades.

Farther west, short-term precipitation deficits led to the introduction of abnormal dryness (D0) in parts of central Mississippi and northeastern Louisiana. Through April 28, month- and year-to-date totals in Monroe, Louisiana, stood at 2.85 and 12.59 inches, respectively—both 64% of normal.

The Upper Midwest: Heavy snow lingered early in the drought-monitoring period across northeastern Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, followed by soaking rains across much of the upper Midwestern drought area. Marquette, Michigan (10.6 and 9.9 inches), and Rhinelander, Wisconsin (6.9 and 3.3 inches), both netted consecutive daily-record snowfall totals on April 20-21. La Crosse, Wisconsin, received 2.39 inches of rain from April 24-27, accounting for 44% of its January 1 – April 28 sum of 5.38 inches. As a result of the heavy precipitation, coverage of moderate to severe drought (D1 to D2) was significantly reduced across northern Michigan, southeastern Minnesota, and northern, western, and central Wisconsin.

The Plains: Showers and thunderstorms dotted the central and southern Plains, erasing dryness (D0) from parts of Kansas and easing moderate to exceptional drought (D1 to D4) in central Texas and environs. However, rain bypassed several areas, resulting in the expansion of D0 from north-central Kansas into eastern Nebraska and the introduction of extreme drought (D3) into parts of north-central Texas. Across the south-central U.S., winter wheat and other fall-sown grains continued to suffer due to drought and a severe early-April freeze. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, nearly two-thirds (64%) of Oklahoma’s winter wheat crop was rated in very poor to poor condition on April 26, along with nearly three-quarters (73%) of the Texas crop.

The West: With the end of the 2008-09 winter wet season approaching, there were only a few changes in the West. Nevertheless, late-season storms continued to produce some snow across the northern Rockies and the Intermountain West. Season-to-date (since October 1, 2008) precipitation totals as high as 100 to 130% of average resulted in the elimination of moderate drought (D1) and a reduction in the coverage of abnormal dryness (D0) across much of western Utah.

A period of record-setting heat affected portions of the West from April 19-22. In California, USDA reported that “high temperatures resulted in rapid dry down on rangeland” and that “additional rainfall was needed to help [pasture] growth.” In the San Francisco Bay area, monthly record highs were attained on April 20 in locations such as San Jose (95 degrees F; tied 95 degrees F on April 9, 1989, and April 30, 1996) and the Oakland Airport (91 degrees F; previously, 88 degrees F on April 23, 1966, and April 26 and 27, 2004). Additional monthly records were set in California on April 21, when highs soared to 104 degrees F in King City (previously, 102 degrees F on April 29, 1981, and April 26, 2004) and 101 degrees F in Gilroy (previously, 100 degrees F on April 30, 1981). In California’s San Joaquin Valley, Bakersfield notched consecutive daily-record highs (99 and 97 degrees F) on April 21-22.

Alaska, Puerto Rico, and Hawaii: Little or no precipitation fell in abnormally dry (D0) areas of southern Alaska, resulting in no change to the depiction. Meanwhile, Puerto Rico remained free of dryness and drought, despite a gradual drying trend across northern and eastern portions of the island during the last month. In northeastern Puerto Rico, San Juan’s April 1-28 rainfall totaled 2.56 inches (76% of normal). Finally, locally heavy showers in Hawaii were mostly confined to windward locations, which have already emerged from drought. As a result, Hawaii’s drought depiction was unchanged. Interestingly, Hawaii has been experiencing unusually cool weather this spring, with April temperatures averaging 3 to 4 degrees F below normal in locations such as Lihue, Kauai, and Hilo, on the Big Island. In fact, Lihue last experienced an above-normal daily average temperature on February 13.

Looking Ahead: During the next 5 days (April 30 – May 4), showery weather will shift from the nation’s mid-section into the South, East, and Midwest. Five-day precipitation totals could reach 4 to 8 inches from the southeastern Plains into the Mid-South, including some of the drought areas in the Red River Valley along and near the Texas-Oklahoma border. More than an inch of rain could fall in areas experiencing dryness or drought in the East, excluding Florida. Some rain will also dampen the upper Midwestern area of lingering drought. Meanwhile, some late-season storminess will arrive along the Pacific Coast on May 1 and quickly encompass the remainder of the West. Total precipitation will exceed an inch in several areas, including parts of the Sierra Nevada and the Pacific Northwest.

The CPC 6- to 10-day outlook for May 5-9 calls for above-normal precipitation in the Pacific Northwest and most of the East, South, and Midwest, while drier-than-normal conditions will be limited to the Southwest. Above-normal temperatures will accompany wet weather in the East and mostly dry weather in the Southwest, but cooler-than-normal conditions will prevail across the nation’s northern tier from Washington into the upper Midwest.

http://drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html

[WeatherLovingDoc]

Rain forecasted here in the Washington DC area for the entire workweek, and it rained all day today, Sunday. This is good news for allergy sufferers as Washington area pollen has been intense. I do believe someone will post the updated drought images, which might show we are closer to a D1 (?) level than the severe drought level. I'm glad we're catching up on rain and hope Carolinas/Florida/Texas are as fortunate soon.