Severe Weather-Fat Tues./Ash Wed.

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Severe Weather-Fat Tues./Ash Wed.

#1 Postby cyclogenesis » Mon Mar 07, 2011 9:42 pm

March 7, 2011
this Monday night
830 PM CST


Gang ~~ I have placed a NEW weather writing on to my website concerning the *IMPORTANT* weather in Southeast Louisiana BETWEEN Tuesday afternoon thru Wednesday morning, March 8 & 9th. It's an intermediate writing before my full, complete writing scheduled for Tuesday morning the 9th. You can read the writing by clicking the following weblink appearing down below:



http://cvamagic.tripod.com/








-- cyclogenesis
Last edited by srainhoutx on Tue Mar 08, 2011 3:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Edit Title: Areas Beyond SE LA Are Now Involved
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Re: Severe Weather-Fat Tues./Ash Wed. SE Louisiana

#2 Postby cyclogenesis » Tue Mar 08, 2011 7:53 am

March 8, 2011
this Fat Tuesday morning!
644 AM CST




Hey Gang ~~ I have added another NEW weather writing that has comprehensive in-depth coverage of the upcoming weather I expect for later today, tonight, & your Ash Wednesday morning. This writing is for Southeast Louisiana primarily from today, March 8, thru Wednesday March 9th. You can read the detailed writing down below by clicking-on the following weblink appearing below:



http://cvamagic.tripod.com/









-- cyclogenesis
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#3 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Mar 08, 2011 2:57 pm

Watch issued recently. Probs are 60/40 and strong tornadoes mentioned. Since it only runs until 8 pm and the main threat is later, it might be replaced by a PDS watch this evening.

SEL2

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 42
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
110 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

LARGE PART OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA
LARGE PART OF SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 110 PM UNTIL
800 PM CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF
FORT POLK LOUISIANA TO 10 MILES EAST OF PINE BELT MISSISSIPPI.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS SPREADING INLAND LWR MS
VALLEY WHERE SHEAR PROFILES ALREADY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS.
EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY THRU THE AFTERNOON AS
UPPER TROUGH AND STRONG JET APPROACH THE REGION. SUPERCELLS
INCLUDING TORNADOES ARE LIKELY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG
TORNADO BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22035.


...HALES
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#4 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Mar 08, 2011 2:59 pm

Farther west for the initial activity.

SEL3

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 43
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
135 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PARTS OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 135 PM UNTIL
800 PM CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
MCALESTER OKLAHOMA TO 85 MILES SOUTH OF PARIS TEXAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 42...

DISCUSSION...AIR MASS ALONG AND E OF N/S DRY LINE HAS DESTABILIZED
WITH MLCAPES AOA 1500 J/KG WITH FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES IN PLACE
FOR SUPERCELLS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG DRY LINE AND
WILL INCREASE IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY THRU THE AFTERNOON AS THEY
MOVE EWD. WHILE LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY WITH ANY SUPERCELL...A TORNADO
THREAT IS ALSO EXPECTED GIVEN THE STRONG MID/UPPER SHEAR ACROSS THE
AREA AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24030.


...HALES
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Re: Severe Weather-Fat Tues./Ash Wed.

#5 Postby srainhoutx » Tue Mar 08, 2011 3:02 pm

Edited the title. We do have other areas beyond SE LA under Severe Weather Threats at this time.
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#6 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Mar 08, 2011 3:04 pm

SPC AC 081956

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0156 PM CST TUE MAR 08 2011

VALID 082000Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF LA AND SRN MS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF EAST TX/OK
INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

...LA/MS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
A 40 KT SLY LOW-LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED WAA REGIME WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER LA/WRN MS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WILL ALSO AID IN NWD TRANSPORT OF HIGHER THETA-E
AIRMASS. AS A RESULT...DESTABILIZATION AND INCREASING MLCAPE VALUES
/UPWARDS OF 1000-1500 J PER KG/ WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA...AND
SHOULD LEAD TO STORM INTENSIFICATION THROUGH EVENING. AREA VWP/S AND
RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PROFILES ARE
ALREADY IN PLACE...FAVORING SUPERCELLS POSING A THREAT OF
TORNADOES/DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS LARGE HAIL. REF WW 42 FOR SHORT
TERM SVR WEATHER THREAT OVER THIS AREA. OTHERWISE...PREVIOUS
FORECAST REMAINS VALID FOR OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

...OK/TX/AR/NRN LA...
DEEPENING CUMULUS IS OBSERVED IN LATEST VIS SATELLITE LOOP FROM THE
TRIPLE POINT OVER CNTRL OK SWD INTO N-CNTRL TX. THICK STRATUS IS
PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF ERN OK...BUT CLOUD EROSION IS NOTED FROM THE
RED RIVER SWD...WHICH IS ALLOWING STRONGER SURFACE HEATING AND
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 70S F. NARROW ZONE OF DESTABILIZATION
EXTENDING NWD INTO CNTRL OK MAY ALLOW BRIEF STORM INTENSIFICATION
AND A THREAT FOR MAINLY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
HOWEVER...BETTER INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED ALONG AND S OF THE WARM
FRONT OVER NERN TX. HERE...STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR AROUND 60 KT WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL
/PERHAPS ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT HAIL OVER SRN OK AND NRN
TX/...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND TORNADOES. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
NWD TOWARD THE LA/AR BORDER...EXPANDING WARM SECTOR MAY ALLOW STORMS
TO PERSIST EWD INTO SRN AR/NRN LA WITH A CONTINUED SVR THREAT. REF
WW 43 FOR SHORT TERM SVR WEATHER POTENTIAL OVER THE AREA.

..GARNER/EDWARDS.. 03/08/2011

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM CST TUE MAR 08 2011/
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Re: Severe Weather-Fat Tues./Ash Wed.

#7 Postby cycloneye » Tue Mar 08, 2011 3:05 pm

Good Steve that you edited the title to not post watches and warnings on two different threads. :)

TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 43
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
135 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2011

TORNADO WATCH 43 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CST FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

ARC081-091-133-090200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0043.110308T1935Z-110309T0200Z/

AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

LITTLE RIVER MILLER SEVIER
$$
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 42
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
110 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2011

TORNADO WATCH 42 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CST FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

MSC001-005-021-029-031-035-037-045-049-061-063-065-067-073-077-
085-091-101-109-113-121-123-127-129-147-149-157-090200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0042.110308T1910Z-110309T0200Z/

MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ADAMS AMITE CLAIBORNE
COPIAH COVINGTON FORREST
FRANKLIN HANCOCK HINDS
JASPER JEFFERSON JEFFERSON DAVIS
JONES LAMAR LAWRENCE
LINCOLN MARION NEWTON
PEARL RIVER PIKE RANKIN
SCOTT SIMPSON SMITH
WALTHALL WARREN WILKINSON
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Re: Severe Weather-Fat Tues./Ash Wed.

#8 Postby cycloneye » Tue Mar 08, 2011 3:47 pm

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
236 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2011

MSC037-085-082100-
/O.CON.KJAN.SV.W.0051.000000T0000Z-110308T2100Z/
FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN MS-
236 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM CST
FOR NORTHWESTERN LINCOLN AND EASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTIES...

AT 234 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A SECOND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR BUDE MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO MCCALL
CREEK...VAUGHN...CASEYVILLE AND LOYD STAR

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WINDS OF 60 MPH CAN BRING DOWN TREES...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN INJURY
AND PROPERTY DAMAGE. ROOFS OF MOBILE HOMES AND OUTBUILDINGS COULD BE
DAMAGED...AND MINOR ROOF DAMAGE TO WELL BUILT HOMES AND STRUCTURES
COULD OCCUR.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CST TUESDAY EVENING
FOR NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

&&

LAT...LON 3170 9067 3170 9044 3136 9070 3139 9093
TIME...MOT...LOC 2034Z 228DEG 31KT 3149 9075
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Re: Severe Weather-Fat Tues./Ash Wed.

#9 Postby cyclogenesis » Tue Mar 08, 2011 4:07 pm

305 PM, Tuesday, March 8, 2011 --->> I have to say, the severity of storms is starting a lot quicker, and ahead of my schedule, about 4 - 5 hours sooner, than I prescribed, but it *IS* happening, just as I said it would -- just ahead of schedule.


I knew that the BTR area up thru the Felicianas (parishes) would get hard-hit, and I mentioned them in my graphic, visual attachment in e-mails and on my website.


I'm going to also look in to the progression of the disturbance, too, to see if a smaller lobe piece of it may have pinched-off from the parent disturbance and taken a trek further South.


Understand folks that the severe weather threat and TORNADO threat will only INCREASE with TIME.


If you think this looks bad, just you wait!! You ain't seen nothin' yet!


I STRONGLY advise folks to keep up with the weather throughout the NIGHT -- even when there are down-times, and even when there are respites or lull's in the activity. Don't let your guard down, because I certainly expect it to get worse as time moves on, especially Northshore.


There will be a rather LENGTHY extended period overnight whereby I see conditions will remain very favorable for tornadoes in the next 18 hours to come. There will be breaks from time to time and lulls, but understand we have the next 18 hours to go where I see conditions favorable for tornadoes.





-- cyclogenesis
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Re: Severe Weather-Fat Tues./Ash Wed.

#10 Postby cycloneye » Tue Mar 08, 2011 5:15 pm

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
TXC147-277-082245-
/O.NEW.KFWD.SV.W.0008.110308T2150Z-110308T2245Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
350 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EASTERN FANNIN COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
LAMAR COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 445 PM CST

* AT 350 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES
NORTHWEST OF HONEY GROVE...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
HONEY GROVE AROUND 355 PM
PARIS AROUND 430 PM
BLOSSOM AROUND 445 PM

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO A STURDY SHELTER AND STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE...SEEK SHELTER IN A STRONG BUILDING AND
STAY INSIDE...AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM TUESDAY EVENING FOR
NORTHEASTERN TEXAS.

&&

LAT...LON 3388 9545 3387 9534 3390 9534 3390 9531
3345 9532 3346 9554 3349 9564 3347 9610
3385 9608 3385 9602 3388 9600 3386 9597
3389 9595 3385 9583 3386 9578 3391 9575
3390 9568 3395 9560
TIME...MOT...LOC 2150Z 261DEG 32KT 3364 9595

$$
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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Re: Severe Weather-Fat Tues./Ash Wed.

#11 Postby cycloneye » Tue Mar 08, 2011 5:16 pm

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
410 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2011

TXC277-082245-
/O.CON.KFWD.TO.W.0001.000000T0000Z-110308T2245Z/
LAMAR TX-
410 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2011

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM CST FOR CENTRAL
LAMAR COUNTY...

AT 408 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
DEVELOPING TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF
ROXTON...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO THIS
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS PRODUCING HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLFBALLS.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
TOCO AROUND 420 PM CST...
PARIS AROUND 430 PM CST...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE TO AN INTERIOR BATHROOM...CLOSET...OR HALLWAY ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF YOUR BUILDING. COVER YOURSELF WITH BLANKETS...PILLOWS...OR A
MATTRESS FOR PROTECTION.

&&

LAT...LON 3351 9554 3351 9568 3353 9585 3371 9585
3377 9557 3363 9545
TIME...MOT...LOC 2208Z 270DEG 31KT 3361 9575

$$


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Re: Severe Weather-Fat Tues./Ash Wed.

#12 Postby cycloneye » Tue Mar 08, 2011 5:27 pm

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
LAC103-105-117-082245-
/O.NEW.KLIX.SV.W.0017.110308T2200Z-110308T2245Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
400 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN ST. TAMMANY PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
CENTRAL TANGIPAHOA PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
WASHINGTON PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...FRANKLINTON...BOGALUSA...

* UNTIL 445 PM CST

* AT 357 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 21 MILES WEST OF ENON...OR 7
MILES SOUTHEAST OF AMITE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL
AREAS OF THE INDICATED PARISHES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. IF A TORNADO
IS SPOTTED... ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY
STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CST TUESDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

&&

LAT...LON 3101 8996 3079 8982 3055 9045 3071 9054
TIME...MOT...LOC 2200Z 243DEG 30KT 3067 9040

$$

95/DM
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Re: Severe Weather-Fat Tues./Ash Wed.

#13 Postby srainhoutx » Tue Mar 08, 2011 5:37 pm

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
429 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2011

TXC277-082245-
/O.CON.KFWD.TO.W.0001.000000T0000Z-110308T2245Z/
LAMAR TX-
429 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2011

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM CST FOR CENTRAL
LAMAR COUNTY...

AT 427 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
RADAR INDICATED TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR 4 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF DOWNTOWN PARIS...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. WIND DAMAGE HAS
BEEN REPORTED WEST OF PARIS WITH THIS STORM THAT MAY HAVE BEEN FROM
A TORNADO.


THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
SOUTH SIDE OF PARIS AT 430 PM CST
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Re: Severe Weather-Fat Tues./Ash Wed.

#14 Postby cyclogenesis » Tue Mar 08, 2011 6:10 pm

March 8, 2011
this Tuesday afternoon
450 PM CST


Gang ~~ I have placed one more weather writing on to my website at 445 PM, this Tuesday afternoon, March 8th. You can have a read down below by clicking on the following weblink appearing below:



http://cvamagic.tripod.com/






-- cyclogenesis
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Re: Severe Weather-Fat Tues./Ash Wed.

#15 Postby cyclogenesis » Tue Mar 08, 2011 6:13 pm

At 454 PM CST, Tuesday, March 8th,



Let's see.... The count of warnings IN MY SERVICE AREA OF SE LA & SW MS is up to, as of 454 PM Tues. PM:


3 Tornado Warnings already issued;

2 Severe Thunderstorm Warnings already issued.

1 Flood Warning issued.



That's a good diversity of warnings!




-- cyclogenesis
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Re: Severe Weather-Fat Tues./Ash Wed.

#16 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Mar 08, 2011 6:38 pm

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
528 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2011

TXC387-090015-
/O.CON.KSHV.TO.W.0003.000000T0000Z-110309T0015Z/
RED RIVER TX-
528 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2011

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM CST FOR RED RIVER
COUNTY...

AT 524 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS AND STORM
SPOTTERS WERE TRACKING A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO.
THIS
TORNADO WAS ON THE GROUND IN CITY OF CLARKSVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 35
MPH.

RESIDENTS IN AND NEAR CLARKSDALE...TAKE COVER NOW!!!!


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OBSCURE THIS TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW! IF YOU WAIT
TO SEE OR HEAR IT COMING...IT MAY BE TOO LATE TO GET TO A SAFE PLACE.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

&&

LAT...LON 3376 9515 3370 9475 3334 9474 3337 9482
3339 9483 3339 9485 3354 9526
TIME...MOT...LOC 2327Z 284DEG 32KT 3363 9503

$$

VII
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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srainhoutx
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Re: Severe Weather-Fat Tues./Ash Wed.

#17 Postby srainhoutx » Tue Mar 08, 2011 6:42 pm

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
534 PM CST TUE MAR 08 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0530 PM TORNADO 2 N CLARKSVILLE 33.64N 95.06W
03/08/2011 RED RIVER TX TRAINED SPOTTER

CHASERS AND SPOTTERS CONFIRM TORNADO ON THE GROUND...RAIN
WRAPPED. SEMI ON A CAR...TRAILERS FLIPPED...POWERLINES
DOWN...MANY ROOFS DAMAGED TO HOMES.
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#18 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Mar 08, 2011 7:12 pm

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0207
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0546 PM CST TUE MAR 08 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX...LA...SRN MS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 42...

VALID 082346Z - 090045Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 42 CONTINUES.

...TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF LA AND SRN MS. A LONGER
TERM THREAT WILL NECESSITATE A NEW TORNADO WATCH BETWEEN 01-02Z...

WARM SECTOR IS GRADUALLY SPREADING NORTH ACROSS WW42 WITH 70F SFC
DEW POINTS NOTED SOUTH OF WARM FRONT. THIS WARM FRONT HAS SERVED TO
FOCUS A FAIRLY LARGE MCS WITH A SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED MCV LIFTING
ENEWD AT ROUGHLY 25KT OVER MARION COUNTY MS. NUMEROUS CELLULAR
UPDRAFTS AND ISOLATED EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS HAVE EVOLVED WITHIN THE
LARGER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
SHIFT EAST OF THE WATCH ACROSS SRN MS WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS YET
TO RECOVER SIGNIFICANTLY. WITH TIME THE WARM FRONT SHOULD GRADUALLY
LIFT NWD ALLOWING MARITIME TROPICAL AIRMASS TO ENHANCE THE PROSPECT
FOR SFC-BASED SUPERCELLS.

UPSTREAM...NEW UPDRAFTS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED ALONG THE LOWER
SABINE RIVER REGION AND THESE STORMS ARE GRADUALLY MATURING AS THEY
SPREAD NEWD INTO WRN PORTIONS OF WW42. THIS AREA IS NOT
PARTICULARLY FOCUSED/CONVERGENT BUT AIRMASS IS VERY MOIST AND
SUFFICIENTLY SHEARED FOR A CONTINUED TORNADO THREAT.

..DARROW.. 03/08/2011


ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON 32109365 32708915 30238915 29649364 32109365
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#19 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Mar 08, 2011 8:39 pm

New watch coming. I wonder how high the numbers will go? My early guess: 80/50. It might be a PDS though.
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Re: Severe Weather-Fat Tues./Ash Wed.

#20 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Mar 08, 2011 8:43 pm

Probs are 60/40 once again.

SEL4

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 44
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
735 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

FAR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
LOUISIANA
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 735 PM
UNTIL 300 AM CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTHWEST OF
NATCHITOCHES LOUISIANA TO 55 MILES NORTHEAST OF GULFPORT
MISSISSIPPI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 42...WW 43...

DISCUSSION...BI-MODAL SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE ONGOING FROM THE
ARKLATEX INTO MS/AL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS WEDNESDAY ALONG AND SOUTH OF WARM FRONT LIFTING NWD THROUGH
THE REGION. 00Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS WITHIN SYSTEM WARM SECTOR
SAMPLED A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH WHEN COUPLED WITH RATHER
STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WAS RESULTING IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. WHILE SOME DECREASE
IN INSTABILITY WILL OCCUR WITH THE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING...MORE
THAN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL PERSIST TO SUSTAIN ONGOING STORMS.
AREA VWPS/PROFILERS INDICATE THAT LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD HAS VEERED
ACROSS ERN TX...HOWEVER RATHER STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST FARTHER E INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY /IN CONJUNCTION WITH 50+
KT LLJ/ WITH EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES OF 300-600 M2/S2. AS
SUCH...ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF TORNADOES /SOME POSSIBLY STRONG/...DAMAGING WINDS AND
HAIL.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25035.


...MEAD
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