Plains Tornado Outbreak 4/14-15

[CrazyC83]

All thunderstorm warnings are holding at winds less than 50 & hail 1.0 to 1.75" in diameter. Anything at or above 70 mph I can post if wanted but so far nothing to that extent..its early.

Note: will mainly stay with tornado warnings though.

Later on, we will need to stick to high-end tornado warnings.

[Dave]

All thunderstorm warnings are holding at winds less than 50 & hail 1.0 to 1.75" in diameter. Anything at or above 70 mph I can post if wanted but so far nothing to that extent..its early.

Note: will mainly stay with tornado warnings though.

Later on, we will need to stick to high-end tornado warnings.

I agree.

[CrazyC83]

No 60% yet but 45% extended southward...still, POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC...

SPC AC 141620

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1120 AM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

VALID 141630Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NEBRASKA...KANSAS...AND OKLAHOMA...

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NEBRASKA...WESTERN
IOWA...KANSAS...WESTERN MISSOURI...AND OKLAHOMA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...A SIGNIFICANT TORNADO OUTBREAK IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA...KANSAS...AND OKLAHOMA...

A LARGE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS PLACED OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
TODAY...WITH A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL JET EXTENDING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST STATES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
MORNING MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST SEVERAL SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
EMBEDDED IN THE FASTER FLOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY.

THE FIRST CLUSTER OF SEVERE STORMS HAS NOW FORMED OVER SOUTHWEST KS
AND WILL LIKELY SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD INTO NEB THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL BE IN AN INCREASINGLY VOLATILE AIR MASS
AS DAYTIME HEATING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION DESTABILIZE THE
REGION. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE EARLY THREATS...BUT
AN INCREASING RISK OF SURFACE-BASED SUPERCELLS WILL POSE A THREAT OF
TORNADOES BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AS THE ACTIVITY MOVES INTO SOUTHERN
NEB...EVEN STRONGER LOW LEVEL SHEAR SUGGESTS THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE ENHANCED.

STRONG HEATING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG THE DRYLINE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER WESTERN KS INTO WESTERN OK. MODEL
SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE CAP WILL BE WEAK BUT CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS REGARDING THE EXTENT OF LARGE SCALE FORCING THIS EVENING.
AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS COULD BE WIDELY SPACED. HOWEVER...
PARAMETERS TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE WILL BE EXTREMELY FAVORABLE
FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LONG-TRACK... DAMAGING/VIOLENT
TORNADOES /4000 J/KG MLCAPE...50-60 KNOTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR...AND
0-3KM SRH VALUES OF 300-500 M2/S2/. THOSE STORMS THAT FORM MAY
PERSIST FOR SEVERAL HOURS AND TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL KS/OK AND INTO
SOUTHERN NEB.

FARTHER SOUTH...CONVECTIVE INITIATION BECOMES INCREASINGLY
UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER...WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE COUPLED
WITH A WEAK CAP AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST SOME THREAT
OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH TX.

..HART/COHEN.. 04/14/2012

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1627Z (12:27PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

[cycloneye]

No 60% yet but 45% extended southward...still, POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC...

SPC AC 141620

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1120 AM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

VALID 141630Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NEBRASKA...KANSAS...AND OKLAHOMA...

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NEBRASKA...WESTERN
IOWA...KANSAS...WESTERN MISSOURI...AND OKLAHOMA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...A SIGNIFICANT TORNADO OUTBREAK IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA...KANSAS...AND OKLAHOMA...

A LARGE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS PLACED OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
TODAY...WITH A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL JET EXTENDING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST STATES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
MORNING MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST SEVERAL SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
EMBEDDED IN THE FASTER FLOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY.

THE FIRST CLUSTER OF SEVERE STORMS HAS NOW FORMED OVER SOUTHWEST KS
AND WILL LIKELY SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD INTO NEB THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL BE IN AN INCREASINGLY VOLATILE AIR MASS
AS DAYTIME HEATING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION DESTABILIZE THE
REGION. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE EARLY THREATS...BUT
AN INCREASING RISK OF SURFACE-BASED SUPERCELLS WILL POSE A THREAT OF
TORNADOES BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AS THE ACTIVITY MOVES INTO SOUTHERN
NEB...EVEN STRONGER LOW LEVEL SHEAR SUGGESTS THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE ENHANCED.

STRONG HEATING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG THE DRYLINE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER WESTERN KS INTO WESTERN OK. MODEL
SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE CAP WILL BE WEAK BUT CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS REGARDING THE EXTENT OF LARGE SCALE FORCING THIS EVENING.
AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS COULD BE WIDELY SPACED. HOWEVER...
PARAMETERS TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE WILL BE EXTREMELY FAVORABLE
FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LONG-TRACK... DAMAGING/VIOLENT
TORNADOES /4000 J/KG MLCAPE...50-60 KNOTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR...AND
0-3KM SRH VALUES OF 300-500 M2/S2/. THOSE STORMS THAT FORM MAY
PERSIST FOR SEVERAL HOURS AND TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL KS/OK AND INTO
SOUTHERN NEB.

FARTHER SOUTH...CONVECTIVE INITIATION BECOMES INCREASINGLY
UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER...WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE COUPLED
WITH A WEAK CAP AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST SOME THREAT
OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH TX.

..HART/COHEN.. 04/14/2012

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1627Z (12:27PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

Uploaded with imageshack.us

[CrazyC83]

New PDS watch, likely with HUGE numbers, coming soon...

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0522
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1127 AM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL THROUGH SERN NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 141627Z - 141830Z

INITIAL THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A
TORNADO THREAT THIS AFTERNOON. A PDS TORNADO WATCH WILL BE NEEDED BY
EARLY AFTERNOON AS CONDITIONS BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES...A
FEW OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG.

LATE THIS MORNING STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING WITHIN BROAD ZONE OF
WARM ADVECTION FROM NCNTRL THROUGH SERN NEB. WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS
ARE SLOWING BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION AND STORMS REMAIN
ELEVATED ABOVE A SFC STABLE LAYER WITH AN INITIAL PRIMARY THREAT FOR
LARGE HAIL. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS ALREADY SHOWS MODERATE MUCAPE
OVER CNTRL AND SRN NEB. WARM FRONT NEAR THE KS/NEB BORDER WILL LIFT
NWD...AND AS SFC DEWPOINTS INCREASE AND LOW CLOUDS BEGIN TO MIX OUT
FROM THE SW...AN AXIS OF 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE SHOULD EVOLVE IN THIS
REGION...PROMOTING DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE BASED UPDRAFTS. SOME OF
THE STORMS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH NCNTRL KS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO
SHIFT INTO SCNTRL NEB BY EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP
FARTHER WEST ALONG THE DRYLINE/TRIPLE POINT LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
THE 50-60 KT LLJ WILL STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT NWD THROUGH KS AND INTO
SRN NEB LATER TODAY WITHIN EXIT REGION OF APPROACHING UPPER JET
CONTRIBUTING TO VERY LARGE HODOGRAPHS. THE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES
AND THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
LONG TRACK TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL.

..DIAL.. 04/14/2012


ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...

LAT...LON 40969692 40349634 40039723 40049995 41049978 41629860
40969692

[Extratropical94]

Has anyone noticed the moderate risk for tomorrow?


SPC AC 141629

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1129 AM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF CNTRL WI...AS WELL
AS EXTREME SERN MN AND NERN IA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN TX TO MI...

...SYNOPSIS...
A POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD OUT OF THE PLAINS AND INTO THE
MS VALLEY DURING THE DAY...WITH A 100+ KT MID LEVEL JET STREAK
EXTENDING FROM ROUGHLY ERN KS INTO SRN WI BY 00Z. AT THE SURFACE...A
DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM SD/NEB INTO SRN MN...WITH A
COLD FRONT TRAILING ALONG THE MN/WI BORDER EXTENDING SWD ACROSS ERN
IA AND INTO ERN TX. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...STRONG SLY FLOW WILL RESULT
IN AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS...WITH BOUNDARY
LAYER DEWPOINTS NEAR 60 AS FAR N AS NRN WI. THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE
OF THIS TROUGH AND INTENSE WIND FIELDS SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT WIND
DAMAGE POTENTIAL...AS WELL AS A FEW TORNADOES OVER THE UPPER MS
VALLEY.

FARTHER S ALONG THE COLD FRONT...CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE
FOR EPISODES OF DAMAGING WINDS WITH A LINES OF STORMS ALONG THE
FRONT...MAINLY FROM TX INTO AR.

...MUCH OF WI...FAR SERN MN AND NERN IA...
A BROAD WARM SECTOR WILL ALREADY BE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA EARLY IN
THE DAY WITH STRONG SLY FLOW MAINTAINING DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER
60S F. AREAS OF HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN ABOUT 1000 J/KG MUCAPE
WHICH WILL BE AMPLE FOR SEVERE STORMS GIVEN INTENSE WIND FIELDS AND
FORCING.

AN ARC OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO MATERIALIZE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...FROM SRN MN INTO NRN IA...DEVELOPING EWD ACROSS WI BY
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME CAPPING
AHEAD OF THE LINE...WHICH MAY TEND TO LIMIT WARM SECTOR DEVELOPMENT
AWAY FROM THE FRONT. HOWEVER...STRONG LIFT NEAR THE FRONT WILL
EASILY REMOVE ANY INHIBITION...WITH AN ORGANIZED QLCS POSSIBLE.
TREMENDOUS WIND FIELDS WILL BE IN PLACE AND SHOULD EASILY RESULT IN
SEVERE WINDS AT THE SURFACE ONCE STORMS GET ORGANIZED. AREAS OF
ROTATION WITHIN THE LINE...AND PERHAPS TORNADOES...WILL BE POSSIBLE
AS WELL...WITH SWATHS OF PARTICULARLY DAMAGING WINDS. HAIL WILL
OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER CORES AS WELL. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT EARLY
CONVECTION REMAINS DISCRETE ALONG THE LINE AS SUPERCELLS...WITH AN
ENHANCED TORNADO THREAT...ALTHOUGH THIS IS LESS CERTAIN.

...ERN TX INTO AR AND SRN MO...
A SEVERE LINE OF STORMS MAY BE ONGOING SUNDAY MORNING FROM ROUGHLY
SERN KS INTO ERN OK AND INTO CNTRL TX. AMPLE MOISTURE WILL EXIST
AHEAD OF THE LINE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DOWNSTREAM. THE STRONGEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE FROM TX INTO AR. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR
ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE FRONT SUGGESTS NEWD MOVING LINE SEGMENTS
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS. SOME OF THESE WINDS MAY BE
SIGNIFICANT...FROM NERN TX INTO SRN MO. THE THREAT SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH EVENING TO THE MS RIVER...AT WHICH TIME SOME STABILIZATION
WILL OCCUR AND THE THREAT WILL DECREASE.

..JEWELL.. 04/14/2012

[apocalypt-flyer]

Plain(s) BONKERS. (awful pun, I know)

That 45% area is HUGE though. Same goes for everything else.

[cycloneye]

First report (Hail) on the graphic. (See here) I am scared about how much the graphic will be filled.

[Dave]

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1144 AM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
151645-
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-
SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-
GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-
WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
1144 AM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

...SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
WITHIN THE OUTLOOK AREA...AND MOVE NORTHEAST AT 30 TO 40 MPH.
STORMS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL MAINLY POSE A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL
UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE. HOWEVER...AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS
ON...ESPECIALLY AFTER 3 PM...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER AS A SURFACE DRY LINE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH.
THROUGH THIS EVENING...SOME OF THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL TO AROUND BASEBALL SIZE AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS OF 70 MPH...AND OF GREATER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG...LONG TRACKED TORNADOES. THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES
ENCOMPASSES ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS.

IN ADDITION TO SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES...A WIND ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM FOR NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...FOR SUSTAINED
SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 30 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME...SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA...ESPECIALLY THROUGH 11 PM.

&&

[apocalypt-flyer]

Sunday got an upgrade, too:

[Dave]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0523
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1144 AM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/WRN KS...NWRN OK...OK/TX PANHANDLES

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 165...

VALID 141644Z - 141745Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 165 CONTINUES.

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION
TORNADO WATCH 165 WILL BE EVOLVING WITHIN TWO SPATIAL REGIMES
THROUGH 1730Z:

1. ONGOING ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...NORTH A
OF A DODGE CITY TO GARDEN CITY KANSAS LINE...WILL SHIFT NEWD. WITH
THE DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS REMAINING RELATIVELY COOL OWING TO THE
STRATUS DECK...MODIFIED 12Z DDC RAOB SUGGESTS THAT THESE STORMS WILL
REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AND POSE MAINLY
A THREAT FOR SEVERAL HAIL...SOME POSSIBLY VERY LARGE.
HOWEVER...STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR MAY SUPPORT THE THREAT FOR ONE OR
TWO TORNADOES WITH THIS INITIAL ROUND OF STORMS AS THE INHIBITION
ERODES WITH AT LEAST SOME DIURNAL HEATING.

2. INCREASING CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN SWRN KS SWD INTO THE ERN TX
PANHANDLE WILL MOVE NEWD BEHIND THE INITIAL ROUND OF STORMS. VERY
LITTLE CINH FOR A SFC-BASED PARCEL INTO THE TX/OK PANHANDLES PER 12Z
AMA RAOB SUGGESTS THAT SURFACE-BASED SUPERCELLS MAY QUICKLY EVOLVE
FROM THIS ACTIVITY DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...WITH THE THREAT FOR
TORNADOES INCREASING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

..COHEN.. 04/14/2012


ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...AMA...

[Dave]

2nd Tornado Watch being issued now....prelimary information:

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 166
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1200 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

TORNADO WATCH 166 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

NEC001-003-011-019-021-023-025-035-037-039-047-053-055-059-061-
065-067-073-077-079-081-083-093-095-097-099-109-119-121-125-127-
129-131-133-137-139-141-143-147-151-153-155-159-163-167-169-173-
175-177-179-181-185-150000-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0166.120414T1700Z-120415T0000Z/

NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ADAMS ANTELOPE BOONE
BUFFALO BURT BUTLER
CASS CLAY COLFAX
CUMING DAWSON DODGE
DOUGLAS FILLMORE FRANKLIN
FURNAS GAGE GOSPER
GREELEY HALL HAMILTON
HARLAN HOWARD JEFFERSON
JOHNSON KEARNEY LANCASTER
MADISON MERRICK NANCE
NEMAHA NUCKOLLS OTOE
PAWNEE PHELPS PIERCE
PLATTE POLK RICHARDSON
SALINE SARPY SAUNDERS
SEWARD SHERMAN STANTON
THAYER THURSTON VALLEY
WASHINGTON WAYNE WEBSTER
YORK


ATTN...WFO...GID...OAX...

[cycloneye]

Here are live streams by the stormchasers.

http://www.tornadovideos.net/pages/full_screen/

[Dave]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 166
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1200 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM NOON UNTIL 700
PM CDT.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 4 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
BROKEN BOW NEBRASKA TO 10 MILES SOUTH OF OMAHA NEBRASKA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 165...

DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL KS IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AND INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN
NEB THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION AND A WEAK CAP MAY RESULT IN OTHER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE WATCH AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LOW LEVEL VERTICAL
SHEAR IS VERY IMPRESSIVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...SUGGESTING
AND INCREASING RISK OF SURFACE-BASED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF STRONG
TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 4 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25035.


...HART

[Dave]

Back in a few hours, storms approaching my area but nothing severe, lightning, small hail, & rainfall but do need to keep an eye on them for a little while.

[Dave]

(1:09 PM) NWS HASTINGS NE - GID issues Tornado Warning for Jewell, Mitchell, Osborne, Smith [KS] till 12:45 PM CDT ...* AT 1204 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTH OF OSBORNE...OR 30 MILES WEST OF BELOIT...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

[Dave]

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1210 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-150000-

...REVIEW OF SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES...
AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATER TODAY. RESIDENTS ACROSS THE
REGION SHOULD MONITOR THIS SITUATION VERY CLOSELY. WATCHES
AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY. HERE ARE SOME
SAFETY RULES TO KEEP IN MIND WHEN SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED OR
IS OCCURRING.

BEFORE SEVERE WEATHER STRIKES...ENSURE THAT YOU AND YOUR FAMILY
ARE FULLY PREPARED. IN A HOME OR BUILDING HAVE A PRE-DESIGNATED
SHELTER...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM OR HALLWAY. HAVE ON
HAND A DISASTER SUPPLY KIT...INCLUDING A NOAA WEATHER
RADIO...FLASHLIGHT...RADIO AND A GOOD SUPPLY OF BATTERIES.

IF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED...SEEK SHELTER
INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS DEFINED AS PRODUCING
QUARTER SIZE OR GREATER HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR MORE. IN
EXTREME CASES...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE WINDS TO OVER
100 MPH AND HAIL LARGER THAN GRAPEFRUITS WHICH CAN CAUSE
EXTENSIVEPROPERTY DAMAGE.

TORNADOES OFTEN FORM VERY RAPIDLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. IF
YOU ARE IN A TORNADO WATCH...AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING IS
ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA...MONITOR LOCAL CONDITIONS CLOSELY AND BE
READY TO TAKE QUICK ACTION TO SAVE YOUR LIFE.

REMEMBER THAT LIGHTNING IS A THUNDERSTORMS MOST UNDERRATED KILLER.
POSTPONE OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES IF THUNDERSTORMS ARE IMMINENT. THIS
IS THE BEST WAY TO AVOID BEING CAUGHT IN A DANGEROUS SITUATION.
AUTOMOBILES OFFER GOOD PROTECTION FROM LIGHTNING...ALTHOUGH MOVING
INDOORS IS BEST. EVEN INSIDE...LIGHTING CAN KILL BY COMING THROUGH
THE PHONE LINES...PLUMBING AND ELECTRIC LINES. THEREFORE DO NOT
USE COMPUTERS...TELEPHONES OR OTHER HAND HELD APPLIANCES DURING A
STORM.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO OR TELEVISION
FOR THE LATEST ON THIS DEVELOPING SEVERE WEATHER EVENT. ADDITIONAL
WEATHER INFORMATION...INCLUDING RELATED GRAPHICS CAN BE FOUND AT
WEATHER.GOV/NORMAN.

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0524
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1211 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN/S-CNTRL KS AND NERN OK

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 165...

VALID 141711Z - 141815Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 165 CONTINUES.

WICHITA WSR-88D RADAR DATA INDICATE CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER ERN
KINGMAN COUNTY AND SURROUNDING AREAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOBE OF
ASCENT TRANSLATING NEWD FROM NRN OK PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. WITH
DEEPENING BOUNDARY-LAYER CIRCULATIONS AMIDST STRENGTHENING
INSTABILITY AND WEAKENING CINH /SBCINH ALREADY LESS NEGATIVE THAN
-10 J PER KG ACCORDING TO MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS/...CONVECTION MAY
RAPIDLY DEEPEN AND BECOME TORNADIC GIVEN THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL AND
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. AS SUCH...THE PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION
TORNADO WATCH 165 MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED EWD INTO MORE OF SERN KS
AND POSSIBLY NERN OK IF THIS THREAT CONTINUES TO INCREASE.

..COHEN.. 04/14/2012


ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON 38309805 38809759 39239658 38729560 37119528 36239636
36409740 37179826 37919827 38309805

[CrazyC83]

ZCZC SPCPWOSPC ALL
WOUS40 KWNS 141625
KSZ000-NEZ000-OKZ000-150200-

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1125 AM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT OUTBREAK OF STRONG TO VIOLENT TORNADOES IS EXPECTED
OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERAL STRONG TO VIOLENT...LONG-TRACK TORNADOES OVER
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE

CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA

ELSEWHERE...SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM...NORTH TEXAS TO
IOWA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.

A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD FROM OKLAHOMA TO
KANSAS AND NEBRASKA TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A POTENT STORM SYSTEM.
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF DANGEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPACT THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS...OVER PARTS OF WESTERN KANSAS INTO NEBRASKA LATE THIS
MORNING...ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS THEY
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD/EASTWARD. ADDITIONAL INTENSE STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP NEAR A SURFACE LOW IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST EDGE OF THE HUMID AIR MASS
INTO CENTRAL KANSAS AND WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. STRONG WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR POWERFUL
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO VIOLENT
TORNADOES...AS WELL AS VERY LARGE HAIL OVER LONG PATHS FROM THIS
AFTERNOON UNTIL AT LEAST MIDNIGHT. FAST-MOVING TORNADOES CONTINUING
AFTER DARK WILL HEIGHTEN THE RISK TO LIFE AND PROPERTY. SOME OF THE
LARGER CITIES THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE OMAHA AND LINCOLN
NEBRASKA...TOPEKA AND WICHITA KANSAS...AS WELL AS OKLAHOMA CITY AND
TULSA OKLAHOMA.

STATE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE MONITORING THIS POTENTIALLY
VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO
REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO
RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE
WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.

..COHEN.. 04/14/2012

$$

[Fyzn94]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1252 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WESTERN JEWELL COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...
NUCKOLLS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...

* UNTIL 130 PM CDT

* AT 1251 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR IONIA...OR 23 MILES NORTHWEST OF BELOIT...
AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ESBON...MANKATO...BURR OAK...BOSTWICK...SUPERIOR...NELSON AND NORA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS TORNADO WARNING REPLACES THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING THAT
WAS IN EFFECT FOR THE SAME AREA.

&&

LAT...LON 3960 9834 3967 9851 3976 9850 4001 9835
4001 9828 4012 9828 4029 9817 4017 9788
TIME...MOT...LOC 1753Z 205DEG 33KT 3973 9839
HAIL 2.75IN