2014 SE TX/ SW LA Weather

[CajunMama]

It's definitely not winter out today! What a pleasant break from the cold we've had this winter.

[vbhoutex]

Yep a welcome change. I even wore shorts the last two days since our highs were 79f both days. We still need rain bad though. I need to resod my yard, but am not going to spend that kind of money if rain continues to be an issue.

[CajunMama]

The north winds yesterday helped ignite that massive apartment fire at W. Dallas/Montrose. The windows and doors had not yet been installed in all the apartments and the wind got in there and just ignited the fire and it went crazy.

On a related but not weather related note my daughter lives one block from the Heights Presbyterian Church fire that occurred today. Of course the wind was blowing the smoke right towards her house.

[vbhoutex]

Latest from Jeff:

SPC has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch effective until 200pm for the northern ½ of SE TX.

Slow moving upper level trough over New Mexico is spreading increasing lift across both a surface warm front over the middle and upper TX coastal waters and a 850mb front located from near Austin to Liberty. Elevated severe thunderstorms producing large hail have developed in the last hour from north of Huntsville ESE to San Jacinto County. Surface low pressure will be re-developing ESE from the Big Bend region toward the middle TX coast by early this afternoon and helping to surge the low level warm front northward to along a line from Victoria to Tomball to Livingston. Air mass south of this front is very moist with dewpoints in the lower 70’s.

For the next 3-6 hours expect elevated thunderstorms above the near surface cool layer to continue to develop mainly along and north of HWY 105 and move northward and northeast out of the area. Think the best severe threat for large hail will be north of HWY 105 and really north of a line from Madisonville to Lake Livingston. South of this line scattered showers, light rain, drizzle, and sea fog will spread northward from the Gulf. Offshore platforms indicate sea fog bank has once again formed as low 70 degree dewpoints spread across mid to upper 60 degree water temperatures. Winds are fairly gusty over the Gulf waters and should only increase today as the surface low develops east of Corpus Christi, so not overly confident that sea fog will be widespread.

This afternoon:

Surface warm front moving northward will bring a warm sector moist and increasingly unstable air mass into the southeastern ½ of the region. Low clouds and some fog will likely prevent much surface heating of the warm sector and jet dynamics aloft look only marginally favorable for good lift. SE TX lies near the eastern edge of warm mid level temperatures being advecting eastward from the higher terrain of NE MX (capping). Looking at both the HRRR and TX TECH meso modeling really does not show much development in the warm sector this afternoon as the surface low moves nearly directly over the area. Appears surface temperatures will need to warm into the mid to upper 70’s to break the capping inversion and this is likely a bit of a stretch given the overcast and light rain/drizzle that will be found in the warm sector. SPC forecasters are a little more aggressive with the threat for surface based severe weather in the warm sector this afternoon…but some many events recently have seen similar set ups with no convective results.

The concern is that if the cap does break favorable low level shear and moderate amounts of instability would support all severe threats south of the warm front (large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes). Low level shear will be maximized along the warm frontal boundary and such boundaries are notorious for producing supercells with tornadoes. Will have to watch trends and the warm front very closely this afternoon for convective development.

Heavy Rainfall:

Moisture levels will rapidly increase today, but best forcing and training cells look to be focused over far east TX into LA and MS where 3-7 inches will be common. Most of SE TX will be at the far SW edge of a more significant flood/flash flood threat over LA today and this threat has shifted more northward and northeast overnight. Would not be surprised to see some 1-2 inch totals quickly in the stronger storms and the best area for this will be across those northern counties this morning where elevated convection is showing some signs of banding and brief training.

[CajunMama]

It's kinda fun but scary to follow Dominator2 in the Lafayette Parish area. If they follow Ambassador Caffery Parkway the way I they SHOULD they'll pass within 3/4's of a mile from my house. They're not going the way they should. They are SO lost! LOL

[PTrackerLA]

Received some pea to dime sized hail as a very brief thundershower moved through this afternoon which didn't surprised me at all give the very cold mid and upper level temperatures. 1/2" hail was reported east of my area. This is the type of cold low we needed all winter to produce actual SNOW instead of all the freezing rain and sleet!

[vbhoutex]

Jeff's email. We may have to hit the winter thread for a day or two :

Impressive cold front will cross the area Monday bringing near record low temperatures.

This afternoon:

Warm air advection continues to pump low level moisture into the area from the Gulf of Mexico this morning. Surface dewpoints have risen into the upper 60’s to near 70 over much of the region along with a thick deck of low clouds and some fog. Short wave currently over the Big Bend region will move across N TX this afternoon. SW flow in the mid levels of the atmosphere has advected a warm capping later eastward from the higher terrain of northern MX across much of SE TX this morning and this is confirmed on the CRP and DRT soundings showing a large warn nose in the 850-700mb layer. Main thrust of lift with the incoming short wave will be aimed north of SE TX and suspect this will be another event where the capping wins out and any storms that develop will be up north mainly along and north of a College Station to Lake Livingston line. Would not be surprised to see a few showers across a larger portion of the area…but rainfall amounts will be light.

Tonight-Monday:

Strong late season cold front will cross the region between 600am and noon Monday. Short term models show the capping inversion weakening as a secondary short wave brings lift and mid level cooling to the region near the time the surface cold front arrives. This should help weaken the capping inversion enough to allow at least a line of showers and thunderstorms along the front. Short term meso models agree with this and show showers/thunderstorms developing early Monday morning either along or just behind the frontal boundary as it crosses the region. Instability looks to be enough to include a slight risk of severe weather for hail and wind damage, but think this threat is on the low side given the time of day that the system will be crossing the region.

Strong north winds will develop behind the front and temperatures will quickly fall into the 50’s and even the 40’s by late Monday afternoon. It will definitely feel much colder Monday afternoon/evening compared to the last few days.

Tuesday-Wednesday:

850mb 0C line pushes close to our northern counties by Tuesday morning. Think winds will stay up enough to keep temperatures in the mid to upper 30’s on Tuesday morning, but those usual cold spots could drop into the low to mid 30’s if winds weaken just before sunrise. Tuesday will be chilly by mid April standards with highs only in the low to mid 60’s. Clear skies and calm winds Tuesday night will result in a cold Wednesday morning. Guidance currently showing upper 30’s north of I-10, but we could get into the mid 30’s with some frost potential given the near clam winds. Could see a few of the colder location drop to or below freezing on Wednesday morning. Will have to keep a close watch on the temperature trends as a freeze this time of year would be fairly significant for this region.

Late week-next weekend:

GFS shows a potent looking system moving into the plain on Thursday and the ECMWF model has started to trend in that direction some over the past few runs. Not sure moisture will have returned by Thursday, but may need to add low rain chances on Thursday. Weak front looks to push into the area with this storm system and linger into next weekend. GFS has a fairly active pattern over TX for next weekend, but I have seen this time and time again this spring only to have the capping inversion squash any “real” chances of significant rainfall.

[vbhoutex]

I ended up with a very welcome 1.54" of rain from our storms yesterday. Temps went from 75f at 11:30am to 45f at 1:30pm and stayed in the 40s the rest of the day.

[ravyrn]

This thread is awfully quieter than I recall it being when I lived in SWLA! Anyone in Vernon Parish able to confirm this image? That looks like an awful lot of rain, and when I noticed that, I went to check for flood warnings on the Anacoco, but couldn't find any. Then saw that Bayou Anacoco had hardly risen any. So is the rainfall estimate an error? I don't understand how that much rain could fall in Vernon Parish and the Anacoco only rise a couple inches?

[Jagno]

Oh dear sweet Texas Rain Gods, please feel free to continue your track eastward into SW Louisiana. My grass was literally dying by the middle of last week so I had to break out the sprinklers and put them to work overtime. We need some rain and hopefully I'll get every drop of the 60% projected rainfall.

I attended the Bayou Country Superfest at Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge this past weekend and the heat and humidity was absolutely unbearable by Sunday afternoon between 3-7pm. I'm ready for a little cool down and it's not even August yet.

Cajun Mama, I stopped in your area Memorial Day to eat at Jolie's or Blue Dog and both were closed. LOL

[vbhoutex]

Dumped 3.20" out of the gauge this morning and it is still raining. We sure do/did need the rain, but I wish it wouold be more spread out instead of all at once. I would like a nice smokey gouda with that whine please.
Rains are continuing to regenerate to our West and move this way so it probably won't be over for quote a while. Maybe it will stay a steady rain as opposed to flooding rains. problem is that most of the bayous are at or over bankful so they will continue to rise slowly or at least stay steady state for a while.
Jagno were pushing this East as hard as we can.

[Jagno]

Vbhoutex, I'm so sorry that you are dealing with a flooding situation. I prefer it in gentle waves, not flooding downpours which doesn't give our rock hard dry soil time to absorb the liquid gold resulting in quickly rising water like what you are experiencing. I do pray that today is much kinder to you.

[HouTXmetro]

So this should get us out of drought conditions? Or are we that far behind?

[vbhoutex]

After dumping 3.66" from the early am deluge we are definitely out of the short term drought here in Houston. Flooding ongoing in some areas of Houston, but I haven't heard of any getting into structures yet. Just hoping that the ULL causing this isn't stalled over the Arklatex region and/or drifting S towards us. If it is that could give it a chance to go warm core and possibly cause some nighttime core rain events which would definitely lead to more flooding in our area.

[PTrackerLA]

Significant flooding occurring all across Lafayette right now 5"-10"+ has fallen area wide. Many roads are flooded/closed and water is entering homes in some neighborhoods. We've effectively eliminated our year to date rainfall deficit in just a few hours . If we have another round this afternoon or tonight things could get really ugly.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

We got hammered pretty good over here in Gonzales today. Had a couple houses with water in them down the street from me. Lots of neighborhood s and business's flooded around town. The usgs gauge in Gonzales was just under 13 inches.

[ravyrn]

Here's some photos from facebook out of Lake Charles.

[PTrackerLA]

Flood warnings flying again for Lafayette today as a line of storms continues to train over the same area. So far 1.25" at the airport giving us over 8" now in the past 36 hours.

[PTrackerLA]

Just when we needed it we received 3.38" officially with over 4 inches in some parts of town this morning. Even had a tornado warning but no damage reported. The river is back in flood stage (2.5' over) but with the end of the rain this shouldn't be a big issue.

[vbhoutex]

Looks like a wet week ahead for SE TX. From Jeff Lindner:

Period of prolonged high rain chances appear in the offering over the next several days and possibly beyond.

Upper air pattern supportive of past majoring flooding events in TX appears to be shaping up for most of this week across the state. 500-300mb ridging has been unable to gain a strong foothold over the state as in the past several summers and will weaken/break down even more over the next 48 hours. Upper level weakness (trough of low pressure) between an upper level high over the SW US and a second upper level high over the SW Atlantic Ocean will result in a favorable atmospheric profile for widespread showers and thunderstorms Tuesday into next weekend. Tropical tap of mid and high level moisture is seen streaming NNE across MX from the eastern Pacific while a pool of deep tropical moisture over the central Caribbean Sea (PWS at or above 2.0 inches) is moving WNW and will landfall on the TX coast by Tuesday afternoon.

Global models are in fair enough agreement suggesting a trough or shear axis will actually become increasingly better defined along and east of I-35 during the week and begin to interact with the surging Caribbean moisture. Forecasted profiles show the atmosphere becoming saturated with time as the air mass takes on strong tropical characteristics.

First will see an increase in seabreeze generated convection Tuesday as the moisture surges inland and the lack of capping from upper level ridging allows low trigger temperatures (mid 80’s). Extremely tropical air mass will be in place by mid week and threat will then focus on potential overnight/early morning speed convergence near/along the coast to enhance thunderstorms. Rainfall rates will be fairly high in such an air mass and there appears to be little change in the pattern through next weekend so daily shots of heavy rainfall appear at least possible.

Patterns such as this in the past (July 2012 and July 2002) have resulted in significant rainfall amounts and major flooding across portions of TX as weak vort centers tend to focus much like dying tropical systems in such a tropical like air mass and storm motions tend to be on the very slow side. The CMC model was hinting at such a feature developing over SE TX in the Wed-Thurs time period and lifting north into N TX by late week, but it is the only global model showing such a well defined feature at the moment and is likely on the extreme end of the spectrum.

Regardless additional rainfall appears likely helping to reduce drought conditions and hopefully generate some run-off into area lakes.