Texas Spring-2015

[DonWrk]

Latest Euro paints the heavy rains straight up and slightly west of I-35.

[Ntxw]

Dangerous flooding potential for the heart of Texas. The models are coming together with stronger agreement anyone along and near I-35 and I-45 are at risk for excessive rainfall. We have seen in the past when large rain bands sets up over the state from south to north they can become deadly.

[gboudx]

We're in San Antonio vacationing. Today is a nice day but leery of tomorrow. If no lightning we should still be able to enjoy the waterpark here on the resort. Hopefully this moves out for the drive back to DFW on Thursday.

[Portastorm]

We're in San Antonio vacationing. Today is a nice day but leery of tomorrow. If no lightning we should still be able to enjoy the waterpark here on the resort. Hopefully this moves out for the drive back to DFW on Thursday.

Heh ... if this thing moves up I-35 like the 12z Euro suggests, you'll have one big slip-and-slide from San Antonio to Dallas!

Be safe.

[JDawg512]

Has anyone been watching what's going on out to the west between Ozona and San Angelo? Are my eyes deceiving me or is that circulation forming out there?
Like some sort of developing low??
Things are getting really interesting.

[Texas Snowman]

Starting to look like Texoma may go over the spillway again.

Twice in one year is new territory.

[aggiecutter]

Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 2h2 hours ago
ECMWF 12z puts very heavy rain bands (8-15'') along Dallas longitude. All of E Texas should be wary of potential of major tropical flooding

[opticsguy]

Interesting thread. X-post from 91L forum. Wet soil and sun can create enough heat energy to keep a tropical system going.

http://mashable.com/2015/06/15/texas-floods-brown-ocean-storm/?utm_cid=mash-com-Tw-main-link

[gboudx]

We're in San Antonio vacationing. Today is a nice day but leery of tomorrow. If no lightning we should still be able to enjoy the waterpark here on the resort. Hopefully this moves out for the drive back to DFW on Thursday.

Heh ... if this thing moves up I-35 like the 12z Euro suggests, you'll have one big slip-and-slide from San Antonio to Dallas!

Be safe.

Even on Thursday? I thought it was moving fast enough to be clearing out of here on Thursday? I'll have to check the tropics thread when I get time.

I was hoping to stop at Louis Muellers for lunch too. For a Q-head, it's a must.

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 2h2 hours ago
ECMWF 12z puts very heavy rain bands (8-15'') along Dallas longitude. All of E Texas should be wary of potential of major tropical flooding

Gadzooks. And the one thing I hadn't thought of until I read the FWD AFD is the potential for tornadoes. Going to be a wild few days for all of us!

[weatherdude1108]

Has anyone been watching what's going on out to the west between Ozona and San Angelo? Are my eyes deceiving me or is that circulation forming out there?
Like some sort of developing low??
Things are getting really interesting.

The San Angelo office mentioned it. It looks like an MCV left over from last night's convection. They predicted it slowly moving east, losing its convective coverage after sunset.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1220 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

Showers and thunderstorms may impact all terminals this evening.
Currently, an MCV was meandering near KOZA. Numerical models
slowly trek this system east through the evening with convection
developing across much of West Central Texas. Convective coverage
will diminish significantly after sunset, although a stray
shower/thunderstorm remains possible overnight. For now, have kept
VCTS mention at all terminals for the afternoon/evening when
coverage will be highest. Overnight, stratus around 1000 feet is
expected to develop at KSOA, KJCT, and KBBD.

[TheProfessor]

The Afternoon FWD AFD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
331 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WEEK OF WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.
THE TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE GULF CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED AND IS SET TO IMPACT OUR AREA BEGINNING ON TUESDAY AND
LASTING POSSIBLY THROUGH THURSDAY. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN LEADING
TO FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND AS A
RESULT... A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS BEING ISSUED WITH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE AREA-WIDE FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA AGAIN TODAY WITH AN UNCAPPED UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE.
STRONGER UPPER FORCING COUPLED WITH A REMNANT MCV HAVE LED TO
INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN OUR WESTERN ZONES. THE
MAJORITY OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING BUT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL STILL
BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. DESPITE RELATIVELY LIGHT APPEARANCE ON
RADAR REFLECTIVITY...THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE BEEN EFFICIENT
RAINFALL PRODUCERS WITH SOME SITES PICKING UP A QUICK 0.10 TO 0.20
INCHES OF RAIN. THIS IS NOT SURPRISING GIVEN THE VERTICAL PROFILE
IN PLACE SHOWN BY OUR MORNING SOUNDING WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ALREADY IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES AND A DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTH.

THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK AND TIMING OF OUR
UNNAMED TROPICAL SYSTEM...AND THEREFORE WILL AVOID DELVING INTO
SPECIFIC TIMING/LOCATION IMPACTS...BUT IT DOES APPEAR SET TO MAKE
LANDFALL ON TUESDAY MORNING ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONVERGING TOWARD A SLOWER AND MORE WESTWARD
TRACK WHICH WOULD TAKE THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WEST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR. GIVEN THIS SOLUTION...THIS IMPLIES THE HEAVIEST RAIN
AXIS WILL BE NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR WITH A FAIRLY LARGE EAST-WEST
BUFFER AREA.

RAIN AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP AND ARRIVE AS MULTIPLE BANDS OF
CONVECTION BEGINNING ON TUESDAY MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING AND WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. HEAVY
RAINFALL IS CERTAINLY STILL A POSSIBILITY OVERNIGHT...BUT OVERALL
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL LIKELY BE LESS DURING THIS TIME. ALL
RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE REMARKABLY EFFICIENT RAIN
PRODUCERS WITH ALL GUIDANCE POINTING TOWARD PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES NEAR 2.5 INCHES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH THE
COLUMN SATURATED TO 300MB. IT WILL NOT TAKE LONG FOR LOCATIONS TO
PICK UP IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL TOTALS...AND AS A RESULT...FLOODING
ISSUES ARE LIKELY TO BE REAGGRAVATED IN MANY LOCATIONS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. FLASH FLOODING WILL BE LIKELY WHERE CELL
TRAINING OCCURS.

MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR OUR SOUTHEAST
ZONES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS OUR ENTIRE CWA REMAINS
IN A FAVORABLE ZONE FOR TROPICAL CONVECTION. THE HEAVIEST AND MOST
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS LIKELY TO OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER TRAVERSES OUR CWA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.

SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES IN GUIDANCE BEGIN TO OCCUR BY LATE
WEDNESDAY REGARDING THE SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT CONTINUES TO
PUSH NORTHWARD. WITH RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW ALOFT...THERE IS NOT A
STRONG MECHANISM TO USHER THIS SYSTEM OUT OF OUR AREA. INSTEAD IT
WILL BE FORCED TO ROUND THE RIDGE POSITIONED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS BEFORE BECOMING INGESTED IN THE STRONGER UPPER
FLOW WHICH IS DISPLACED WELL TO THE NORTH. AS A RESULT...WE HAVE
CARRIED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING SINCE IT IS
POSSIBLE LINGERING CONVECTION FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL STILL BE
IMPACTING PORTIONS OF OUR CWA.

CHANGES CAN AND WILL BE MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST AS NEW DATA
IS ACQUIRED AND ANALYZED...BUT THESE ARE SOME OF THE EXPECTATIONS
AT THE CURRENT TIME. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
ACROSS THE CWA ARE LIKELY BY THURSDAY EVENING. AN AXIS OF 2-4
INCHES IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR...OR JUST EAST OF WHERE
THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL TRACK. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT SOME
VERY LOCALIZED AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE MULTIPLE STRONGER STORMS
PICK UP AMOUNTS MUCH HIGHER THAN 4 INCHES IN OUR CWA...BUT DO NOT
HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO ADVERTISE ANY SPECIFIC LOCATIONS OR
SPECIFIC HIGHER AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME.

ONE THREAT THAT CANNOT BE OVERLOOKED ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IS
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE /TC/ TORNADO THREAT. THE THREAT FOR TC TORNADOES
IS HIGHEST IN THE RIGHT-FRONT QUADRANT WITH RESPECT TO THE TC
MOTION VECTOR...SO GENERALLY NORTHEAST OF THE LOW IN THIS CASE. GIVEN
THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK THIS PLACES THE HIGHEST THREAT ALONG
AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR...WHICH DOES CURRENTLY APPEAR TO
HAVE A TYPICAL TC TORNADO ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY TALL THIN
CAPE AND STRONG SHEAR YIELDING LOW BULK RICHARDSON NUMBERS. THE
MAIN TIME FRAME I AM CONCERNED WITH RIGHT NOW IS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS SOME OF THE INITIAL OUTER BANDS STREAM NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE CWA. THE THREAT FOR LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS IS
GENERALLY LARGEST IN THE OUTER BANDS WHERE HIGHER INSTABILITY IS
POSSIBLE DUE TO THE CHANCES FOR A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS LEADING
TO LARGER SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY WIND
FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MAY BE IN EXCESS OF 50
KTS....AND WHEN COUPLED EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS...WILL CREATE
PREFERABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND LARGE LOOPING HODOGRAPHS WITH 0-3
KM HELICITY VALUES NEAR 300-400 M2/S2. THIS THREAT WILL CERTAINLY
BEAR WATCHING ON BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

[weatherdude1108]

Here we go!

FXUS64 KEWX 152037
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
337 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN AREAS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

NEARLY STATIONARY REMNANT MCV ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS IS AIDING
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION...AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON FOCUS FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS
NORTHERN VAL VERDE...EDWARDS...REAL...AND KERR COUNTIES. FARTHER
EAST...DE-STABILIZATION AND VERY MOIST CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA WORKING INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND EASTERN HILL
COUNTRY. SHOULD SEE A TEMPORARY LULL IN ACTIVITY ACROSS MOST OF
THE CWA AFTER SUNSET WITH LOSS OF HEATING.

ACROSS THE WEST-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...NHC CONTINUES TO MONITOR
AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHWEST. DESPITE
HURRICANE HUNTERS NOT BEING ABLE TO CLOSE OFF A CENTER THIS
MORNING...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL STILL FAVOR DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT MOVING INLAND INTO THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST TUESDAY
MORNING. OUTER RAINBANDS COULD BEGIN TO AFFECT THE SOUTHEAST CWA
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

EXACTLY HOW THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWEST OR NORTH WILL DICTATE HOW
HEAVY THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS GET DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. SEVERAL
HI RESOLUTION MODELS BRING THE CIRCULATION UP THROUGH THE EASTERN
CWA OR HGX WESTERN CWA AND INTO NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. 12Z ECMWF AND GFS ARE WEAKER...SLOWER AND
FARTHER WEST. AT THIS TIME WE EXPECT SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS
TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS DURING THE ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN
CWA AS THE CIRCULATION MOVES NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY NORTH.

WE ARE MORE CONCERNED NOW ABOUT TUESDAY NIGHT...WHERE NOCTURNAL
CONSOLIDATION OF CONVECTION IN TOWARDS CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION
AND TOWARDS CONVERGENCE AXIS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER COULD
LEAD TO BANDING OF HEAVY RAINFALL SOMEWHERE ALONG OR EAST OF I-35.
WE HAVE CONTINUED HIGH POPS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MENTIONED
FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA OF TUESDAY NIGHT.

VERY MOIST POOL OF TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE CWA
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS LOOKS TO
REMAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL OR WESTERN CWA DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
HIGH POPS ARE CONTINUED DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY FOR CENTRAL AND
EASTERN AREAS...WITH POTENTIALLY ANOTHER NOCTURNAL EVENT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL OR WESTERN AREAS.

IT SHOULD BE STRESSED...WITH THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT TRACK
OF THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM AND WHETHER OR NOT ADDITIONAL ORGANIZATION
TAKES PLACE...SIGNIFICANT ERRORS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE RAINFALL
FORECAST. GIVEN THE TIGHT EAST TO WEST RAINFALL GRADIENT FORECAST
BY SEVERAL MODELS...SLIGHT DEVIATIONS IN THE TRACK TO THE WEST
COULD RESULT IN HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS.

TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY...CURRENTLY WE ARE FORECASTING AVERAGE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT OF 2 TO 6
INCHES ALONG AND EAST OF U.S. 281...WITH ISOLATED POCKETS OF 8
INCHES ALONG U.S. 77. MUCH OF THE AREA IS SATURATED FROM RAINFALL
THE PAST MONTH. ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN FLOODING. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH IMPACT FLASH FLOODING
AND MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING OVER SOME RIVERS AND CREEKS OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AT THIS TIME IT IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT EXACT
AREAS.

NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE CURRENT CONFIGURATION OF THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH...AND IT WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...SOME SLIGHT DRYING
AND SLIGHT RIDGING FROM THE WEST LOOKS TO DEVELOP OVER THE CWA
NEXT WEEKEND.

[TheProfessor]

A quick snippet from the Storm Prediction Center's Day 3 Forecast. If the GFS is right, there will be some real flooding issues.

...SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX FORECAST WITH HIGH UNCERTAINTY IS EVIDENT ATTM...AS MODELS
DIFFER QUITE SUBSTANTIALLY ON TIMING/TRACK/EVOLUTION OF A SURFACE
LOW AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAX ALOFT OUT OF THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO AND
INTO TX. THE GFS STALLS THIS SYSTEM OVER THE TX VICINITY THROUGH
DAY 3...WHILE THE NAM EJECTS THE SYSTEM -- ALREADY IN ERN OK AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD -- QUICKLY NEWD INTO/ACROSS THE OH VALLEY.

[gatorcane]

Posted this in the 91L discussion but not good with all the rain coming towards Texas:

[northjaxpro]

There was a EURO run yesterday morning which had 10+ inches into the Houston Metro area. I am trying to retrieve that , or someone else on the board may post that as well.

[TheProfessor]

Latest NWS FWD Graphic has the Axis of heavies rain as far west of just west of 35w and the heaviest occurring in Dallas County southward

[TheProfessor]

adult photo sharing

WPC's latest rain forecast.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, Eastern TX really looks to get deluged with soon to be named Bill as it treks inland Tuesday-Wednesday. There are going to be some impressive rainfall totals unfortunately in areas that just don't need it for sure.

[TheProfessor]

Weather channel has a graphic that shows 8-12 inches of rain near Dallas