Texas Spring-2015

[Tireman4]

Well, since the air has been let out of the Winter balloon, might as well get this one started...

[JDawg512]

To be honest I am ready to get Spring going. I'm not as cold hungry like most of the forumers. Besides I really want to have some fruit growing on my peach tree but if next week pans out the way many of the models are showing then I can say goodbye to that.

[gpsnowman]

After the next wave next week, I'll be ready for some warm weather. Spring Break is week after next and have a road trip planned with my daughter taking us to Memphis and then St. Louis. Some sunny weather would be nice. It can still be chilly but sunshine would feel nice after the late winter fun. And then........baseball!!!

[JDawg512]

Yea spring break is not far off. Would be nice to have a week of nice weather here for SXSW and the rodeo. Combined they bring in about half a million visitors so it's always nice to have chamber of commerce weather during that period.

[Tireman4]

Not yet...He he he..although Spring Break starts for my kiddo next week. My work, week after next...LOL

[wxman57]

No spring break for me - it's my busiest time of the year (since we don't get hurricanes in the Atlantic anymore). Would be nice to get some cycling in for a change. 12Z GFS looks rather mild for next week. No big cold fronts for the next couple of weeks. Minor one next Saturday-ish.

[Tireman4]

No spring break for me - it's my busiest time of the year (since we don't get hurricanes in the Atlantic anymore). Would be nice to get some cycling in for a change. 12Z GFS looks rather mild for next week. No big cold fronts for the next couple of weeks. Minor one next Saturday-ish.

Ok, that was funny. I hope it stays that way, not that I want you out of a job. You could always be a librarian..



As far as your biking, you could bundle up and ride....ear muffs and all...

[wxman57]

No spring break for me - it's my busiest time of the year (since we don't get hurricanes in the Atlantic anymore). Would be nice to get some cycling in for a change. 12Z GFS looks rather mild for next week. No big cold fronts for the next couple of weeks. Minor one next Saturday-ish.

Ok, that was funny. I hope it stays that way, not that I want you out of a job. You could always be a librarian..

As far as your biking, you could bundle up and ride....ear muffs and all...

Just looked at the Euro and it shows a large area of 20+C temps above normal all across the northern U.S. & Canada at day 10, but still a little below-normal temps over Texas. No sign of daily 80+ temps yet, but at least highs should reach the 70s.

As for the biking, we'll be out riding tomorrow afternoon (12-4pm). Should be in the 60s then. Yes, I could become a librarian, or maybe purchase a VHS movie rental store...

[Tireman4]

As for the biking, we'll be out riding tomorrow afternoon (12-4pm). Should be in the 60s then. Yes, I could become a librarian, or maybe purchase a VHS movie rental store...

Oh you are just a bucket of love before this weekend. My gracious...

[Shoshana]

Glad to see rain coming tonight. No ice, no thunderstorms. Used to enjoy storms but now with a dog scared of 'em it's more difficult.

[JDawg512]

Some areas could get a few inches of rain between tonight and Monday.

Now I can finally plant some of the more cold tolerant spring vegetables. There probably will be a couple of more chances for a light freeze here in the core of Austin but I think it's safe to say as for hard freezes go that we are done.

I think my peach Buds made it through the 23 degree freeze the other night. The wet soil made the difference from this time last year when all the buds and flowers died when we had that icy start.

March is my favorite month of the year for so many reasons including being my birthday month. I just find early spring and the wide range of weather that can happen so invigorating. It's also one of those rush and roulette kinda months because so many events happen over the month like SXSW and you just never know how the weather will play a part. Some years SXSW gets perfect weather with upper 60s and low 70s, other years it can be chilly, wet and even stormy. We've had a couple of years where there was everything from 85 degree weather to storms to freezing temps during the 12 day period. One thing for sure is March is typically not a stagnant weather month.

[Portastorm]

Yeah the latest forecasts are promising for healthy rains in south central Texas and ample rainfall in SE Texas. Let's hope it holds. Seems like bulk of it would fall between 6 pm Sunday - 6 pm Monday.

[Portastorm]

The NWS has issued a Flash Flood Watch for much of south and south central Texas including Austin and San Antonio. Widespread 2-4" of rain with isolated areas getting as much as 6" of rain. This *could* get interesting.

[weatherdude1108]

I saw that! So much for my top-dressing lawn on Monday. There was a 0% chance a few days ago. Now 100% with possible flooding. Ah well. I will take the rain and compost later this week.

[Ntxw]

South and southeast Texas are not in a soil drought. If it rains like that flooding is definitely an issue. Pacific flexing it's muscles. This is going to be the dominate pattern within the next 40-60 days as the MJO and El Nino are working together.

[weatherdude1108]

Seems like the EWX discussion have gotten more technical over the past year. I thought this was Hampshire, but looks like Allen.

In any case, looks wet. Hope the lakes aren't too far west of this action (as is usual).

000
FXUS64 KEWX 081948
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
248 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...

...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM 7PM TONIGHT THROUGH 7PM
MONDAY AS A POTENT MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW COMBINES WITH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH
MOISTURE THAT WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD 2-4 INCHES OF RAIN WITH
POSSIBLE LOCAL POCKETS UP TO 5-6 INCHES FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH-
CENTRAL TEXAS. THE MAIN TIME FRAME OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

CURRENTLY...WATER VAPOR/RAP ANALYSIS DEPICTS A MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOSED LOW OVER NORTH MEXICO THAT IS STEERING A TROPICAL PACIFIC
MOISTURE RIBBON OVER THE REGION. THIS MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS
COMBINING WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ON SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW...ALLOWING PWATS TO CLIMB TO NEAR 1.2-1.3" WHICH IS WELL
ABOVE 200% OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WEAK ADIABATIC UPGLIDE
AND WEAK H5 VORTICITY IMPULSES AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW THIS MORNING
AND AFTERNOON HAVE LEAD TO A COUPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN SHOWERS. THERE
SHOULD BE A BREAK LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE
THE MAIN EVENT BEGINS NEAR MIDNIGHT IN THE SOUTHWEST AND DEVELOPS
NORTHEASTWARD MONDAY MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

STRONGER H3 DIVERGENCE IS BEING MODELED OVER BAJA IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A STRENGTHENING H3 JET MAX ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
CUT-OFF LOW AND ENHANCED DIVERGENCE WILL INCREASE OVER THE REGION
UNDER A DEVELOPING COUPLED JET STRUCTURE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL RESPOND IN ACCELERATING TO 30-40 KT
MONDAY MORNING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR AS A H85-H7
VORT MAX DEVELOPS. A STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENT BOUNDARY WILL SET
UP IN THIS VICINITY AND ACT AS A HEAVY RAIN FOCUS WITH PWATS
CONTINUING TO CLIMB TOWARDS 1.4-1.5". IN ADDITION TO THE STRONG
FORCING AND ADEQUATE ORGANIZING SHEAR...CORFIDI VECTORS WILL BE
5-10KT...LIKELY ALLOWING FOR OVERALL SLOW EASTWARD SYSTEM MOTION
THAT WILL FURTHER INCREASE RAINFALL TRAINING WHILE INDIVIDUAL
CELLS MOVE TO THE THE NE/ENE. AS A RESULT...SEVERAL HI-RES AND
LOCAL WRF RUNS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST WIDESPREAD 2-4 INCHES WITH
ISOLATED 5-6 INCH POCKETS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A BURNET TO
HONDO TO PEARSALL LINE. THE LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY
BE CONFINED TO A NARROW AXIS NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR
AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 90 WHERE MASS FIELDS SUGGEST STRONGEST LINEAR
ELEVATED CONVECTIVE BANDING. THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK HAS
BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT THIS LINE OF THINKING AND TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED CLOSELY IF THE CELL TRAINING LOOKS TO OCCUR OVER THE
I-35 CORRIDOR.

RAINFALL WILL TAPER OFF LATE MONDAY FROM WEST TO EAST WHILE A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SABINE RIVER. AS THIS SURFACE LOW
PUSHES NORTHEAST SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT IN FROM THE
NORTH. /ALLEN/

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...

DESPITE THE SURFACE LOW SHIFTING NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...THE REGION WILL STILL REMAIN WEST OF THE MAIN H5
TROUGH AXIS. THIS WILL KEEP A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AROUND BUT
DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS SHOULD KEEP REGION DRY THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY AND POSSIBILITY INTO SATURDAY. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE
AT A DISAGREEMENT ON HANDLING RETURN MOISTURE BY NEXT SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY BUT RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE LOW REGARDLESS OF SOLUTION. A
SLOW WARM UP TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED. /ALLEN/

[gboudx]

Here's jeff's update for you SETX folks:

Moderate to heavy rainfall event underway across the region.

A strong upper level storm system over northern MX will slowly move eastward today and interact with copious moisture of SE TX to bring widespread rainfall. A coastal warm front will gradually attempt to move inland and help to focus the heavier rainfall in a SW to NE band from late this morning through much of this afternoon. Rainfall rates thus far have been manageable, but expect an increase in convective elements this afternoon which will support and increased threat for heavier rainfall.

Storm totals over the last 24 hours have averaged 2-3 inches of rainfall from Livingston to northern Harris County to Colorado County with 1-2 inches across the rest of the region. Additional rainfall amounts of 2-3 inches appear likely today with isolated totals of up to 5 inches. Main concern is the threat for cell training of moderate to heavy rainfall especially along and NW of the US 59 corridor. Grounds are saturated and additional rainfall will run-off resulting in rises on area watersheds. Many watersheds are already showing rises this morning from the rainfall yesterday and overnight.

Hydro:
Run-off is increasing across the region with grounds now saturated and flash flood guidance lowered. The West Fork of the San Jacinto River has shown a good rise overnight at both Conroe and Porter. Orientation of the rainfall pattern on top of wet grounds supports rises on the San Bernard and Lavaca/Navidad Rivers over the next few days.

Extended:
Upper level trough will remain parked over N MX through much of the week with at least low end rain chances for the coastal areas and the offshore waters. Inland areas should begin to dry out tonight into midday Tuesday.

[Portastorm]

A little more than 1.8" of liquid gold now in the ol' rain bucket close to the PWC. And still coming down. Love it!

[weatherdude1108]

I haven't been able to check yet. I'll need a boat to get out to the gauge.lol, but there was about 0.7 in the gauge from the last two weeks before this event started. I would imagine I have at least 1.5 more inches added to that. I originally cleared this day Monday from work to top dress my grass because there was a 0% chance for today in last week's outlook, and my family would be at school and work (no take away from the family time). Within a few days, it jumped to 100% with flooding.

Compost doesn't stick to grass very well that is submerged.
Anyway, I bought the bags of compost that are waiting at the side of the house and switched the day for this Friday. It is supposed to be nice after today all the way through Friday. I love the rain, I just need a few hours without rain to apply it.

That'll teach me to rely on an extended forecast in March.

[Shoshana]

We've had 2"+

My PWS says 2.3" but I have been waiting for a warm day to calibrate it. The physical rain gauges look close to or above 2.5" (from the porch looking at them across the yard) and it's still raining