October 2nd-4th Heavy Rain event in the Carolinas

[SeGaBob]

Well, I figured I should start this thread due to the high confidence of a historic flash flooding event. I'm south of where the heaviest rain will fall, but those in the Carolinas feel free to share rainfall totals, pictures of flooding, or damage related to this event.


http://www.weather.gov/chs/Oct-flooding-briefing-page

[LarryWx]

The 12Z Euro is back to almost as widespread a devastating rainfall event for SC as it had two runs ago. It has the heaviest axis of rainfall (8"+) for the 72 hours ending 2 PM on Monday, Oct. 5. covering about 2/3 of SC with the 8"+ area centered from Greenwood to Columbia to Myrtle Beach. Also, far SE NC including Wilmington is in the over 8" area. In addition, a small part of east central GA near and NW of Augusta about 75 miles is just inside the 8"+ area.

A small portion of this 8"+ area (near the center of it) is actually getting progged to get 12-14"! I'm not saying I necessarily think it will verify as being this bad. I'm just reporting the model's output. Hopefully, it won't as this would be a disaster for SC unlike any I've ever seen there outside of Hugo's wind effects. More than often, modeled extremes like this get overdone. We can only hope that will be the case this time.

By the way, Bob, the 12Z NAM has just about the heaviest of that run in our areas of SE GA...near 7", which is more on its run that just about all of SC. It is way out in left field and it is a horribly unreliable model. So, I'm largely ignoring it and am going with a somewhat tamed version of the 12Z Euro as my best guess as of now with it bringing the heaviest well away from us well up into SC. Let's see what verifies.

[Tstormwatcher]

We have picked up 2.98" today. This gives me over 7" since last Thursday. They are currently predicting us to be dry tomorrow and then heavy rain to return Sunday and Monday to the tune of 3-5". Lots of low lying flooding going on now and I suspect it will get worse if the forecast comes true.

[LarryWx]

I just talked to a relative in CHS. The tides there are about the highest since Hugo due to a combo of astronomically high ones combined with very lengthy 20-30 mph easterly winds. They just had a high tide an hour or so ago. Combine that with 7-10"+ of rain already in most areas & you easily have the worst widespread flood there since Hugo and worse where the Hugo surge wasn't bad. Numerous roads are closed. However, he told me he was still able to get around where he lives due to knowledge of the higher streets nearby.
As bad as this has been, 12Z GFS/Euro models are suggesting another 5-8"+ of rain is possible by late tomorrow making for a biblical 12-15"+ 48 hour totals!! It wouldn't shock me if some isolated spots end up with an insane 20"!! The 12-15"+ amounts would meet, if not exceed, the highest amounts predicted at the start.
This is on the way to being perhaps a once in several hundred year widespread flood in CHS!
In addition to all of this, I'm concerned about major river flooding coming within a few days as very heavy rains well upstream from the coast combine with the very heavy near the coast.

[LarryWx]

As if Charleston hasn't had way more than enough, they have during the last hour had severe thunderstorms producing strong winds and very heavy rains/renewed flash flooding. Moreover, there's a train of heavy rain offshore aiming at the area again like was the case earlier today. About the only good thing that can be said is that they were just coming off of a low tide when the severe thunderstorms came ashore.

The flooding in parts of the Charleston area is almost beyond description and there very well may be another 24+ hours of this on and off. A truly historic event. The next high tide will be after 1 AM though that tide isn't expected to be quite as high as the prior one.

[LarryWx]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1243 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015

..FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR CHARLESTON AND BERKELEY COUNTIES

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON HAS EXTENDED THE

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF...
CHARLESTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...
BERKELEY COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...

* UNTIL 615 AM EDT

* AT 1229 AM EDT...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED WATER ENTERING
STRUCTURES IN PORTIONS OF CHARLESTON AND BERKELEY COUNTIES.
EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO FALL AND WILL ONLY ACT TO
WORSEN THE ONGOING FLOODING.

THIS IS A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR CHARLESTON AND BERKELEY
COUNTIES...SPECIFICALLY INCLUDING DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON...THE COLLEGE
PARK AREA...AND MONCKS CORNER. MULTIPLE REPORTS ARE COMING IN OF
WATER ENTERING HOMES AND STRUCTURES WITH NUMEROUS ROADS CLOSED AND
CARS SUBMERGED. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THIS AREA RANGE
BETWEEN 12 TO 18 INCHES...WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
CURRENT RADAR SHOWS THAT THE MOST INTENSE RAINFALL IS SETTING UP
ACROSS AN AREA FROM AROUND AWENDAW TO MONCKS CORNER. HOURLY RAINFALL
RATES BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES PER HOUR ARE LIKELY...AND AN ADDITIONAL
3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN OF POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNRISE WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS EXPECTED.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
CHARLESTON...NORTH CHARLESTON...MOUNT PLEASANT...GOOSE CREEK...
HANAHAN...MONCKS CORNER...MCCLELLANVILLE AND I-26/I-526
INTERCHANGE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW. THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE
THREATENING SITUATION. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL UNLESS YOU ARE
FLEEING AN AREA SUBJECT TO FLOODING OR UNDER AN EVACUATION ORDER.

MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW. ACT QUICKLY TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING.

TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.

PLEASE REPORT FLOODING TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY WHEN YOU
CAN DO SO SAFELY.

[LarryWx]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1140 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015

SYNOPSIS

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH WITH VERY HIGH
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
LOW WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY. EXPECT DRYING
TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA. DRY HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN FL WITH PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW PUMPING COPIOUS AMOUNTS
OF MOISTURE FROM THE CENTRAL SC COAST THROUGH THE MIDLANDS.
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS WITH
FLOODING OCCURRING OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS.

SITUATION WHICH CONTINUES TO UNFOLD HAS REACHED CRITICAL
LEVELS...SCEMD HAS ISSUED A CIVIL EMERGENCY MESSAGE URGING
EVERYONE TO REMAIN AT A SAFE AND DRY LOCATION AND ONLY LEAVE IF
TOLD TO DO SO BY LOCAL OFFICIALS.

OTHER CONCERN THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE THE WINDS. WINDS WILL BE 10
TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH. COMBINED WITH THE
SATURATED SOILS THIS WILL RESULT IN TREES BEING BLOWN
DOWN...INCLUDING ACROSS ROADWAYS AND INTO POWERLINES. NUMEROUS
TREES HAVE ALREADY BEEN REPORTED BLOWN DOWN DUE TO THE SATURATED
SOILS AND THIS WILL CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY WITH THE ADDITIONAL RAIN
FALLING ACROSS THE AREA.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL SEE 3 TO 4 INCHES OF
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACROSS ORANGEBURG...SUMTER AND CLARENDON
COUNTIES WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES IN THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS...
TAPERING TO 1 TO 2 INCHES FOR THE CSRA AND NORTHERN
MIDLANDS ALONG THE NC LINE.

[LarryWx]

About a 75 mile long stretch of I-95 is closed from I-20 on the north end (near Florence) down to I-26 on the south end (between Columbia and Charleston) due to flooding!

[SeGaBob]

Look at the impressive rainfall totals from this system. I bet rivers are going to have some kind of flooding...


http://www.weather.gov/media/chs/products/PNS/PNS_20151005_1602.pdf