First Freeze Predictions. Deadline by midnight 10/31/15

[northjaxpro]

Well, now that we have entered the Fall/Autumn season, I thought it would be good to break out the start of this thread. I wanted to see how we all can be good prognosticators with regards to analyzing when the first freeze will occur. The strong El Nino occuring this year I think may make predicting the first freeze a challenge for some regions. It is generally a stormy, wet and cooler pattern which is anticipated across the southern tier of North America, especially across California, Texas and Florida. Milder to warmer conditions relative to normal may be in store for the Northern Great Plains, Intermountain West and Pacific Northwest regions for this upcoming fall and winter season.

So, I will chime in first with a prediction for the Jax and Northeast Florida area. Typically, we average our first freeze generally by the mid-latter portions of November. Of course, a chief factor will be whether the North Atlantic Oscillation is in a positive or negative phase during the course of the upcoming winter season. Of course, if we go into a negative phase, that can work in conjunction with a strong El-Nino big time . The 1997-1998 El Nino was among the strongest on record, and the thinking is this winter could be comparable to that one. We already have seen the impacts of this year's strong El Nino already across Florida and the Southeast U.S. with record breaking flooding rains.

I will stick my neck out and predict that North Florida and the Jax area may see a freeze in late November. I will stick close with the percentages and with the average of seeing the first freeze here at that time, though I would not be shocked in a Strong El Nino we are in the midst of that we may go well into December before seeing the first freeze here.

So, I will go with November 23.

Take a shot at this y'all! ... at your own risk I suppose lol.. However, all prredictions must be posted by October 31 at midnight.

By the first of December, most areas outside of Central and South Florida and the desert SW, and Southern California will probably have or experienced their first freeze of the season. I would love to check later how we all have fared with this thread.

[Ralph's Weather]

For Tyler Texas I am going with 10/31. With the -AO we just need a little -EPO and that should come by late this month if we can get recurving typhoon.

[northjaxpro]

Still time to get in on predictions for the first freeze of the season for your region. We are appoaching mid-October now, so the first good shot of cold air is just around the corner for several regions. Get in your predictions before the first true cold shot comes fown into the CONUS.

[northjaxpro]

The deadline to submit your predictions is midnight 10/31/15. Still time to submit your entries folks.

[Tireman4]

This hot weather has gone to my brain..lol

[Ntxw]

I was going to do a freeze contest in the texas winter threads with a prize. Due to other obligations though that requires more time I think this thread is as good as any and would include a broader scope of posters.

DFW- November 13th
Austin-November 15th
Houston-December 5th (with an early season coastal low snowstorm 2009-esque )

[WeatherGuesser]

By 10/31, many will have already had their first freeze.

[northjaxpro]

By 10/31, many will have already had their first freeze.

Maybe in some areas of the Rockies and Northern States. However, the emphasis is to predict the first freeze pertaining to the region/ciity you are located. This includes many areas that typically may not see a freeze officially until we get into November and thereafter. So, I will stick by my deadline of Halloween. Thanks for those who have participated thus far. Still time to get predictions in. Join in!!

[WeatherGuesser]

[northjaxpro]

"WeatherGuesser"]

Thanks WeatherGuesser for the map. It illustrates exactly what I referenced above in that about 1/2 of the CONUS averages first freeze from November 1 and dates thereafter.

[Jag95]

For Mobile, AL I'll go with Nov 28.

[WeatherGuesser]

"Saturday Night
Patchy frost after 1am. Otherwise, clear, with a low around 34. Light northeast wind. "

Maybe Sunday morning 10/18 for parts of KY, IL, TN, MO

[northjaxpro]

Yeah Weathergueser the Central Plains, Midwest and Ohio Valley regions may see areas with their first freeze this weekend. I am assuming you live in either of the regions. It will be close. It is looking likely several cities will hit the freeze mark in these regions this weekend.

[northjaxpro]

Also, you never know when wild weather extremes can occur. Mother Nature can always throw surprises at us. Case in point was the record breaking South Carolina snow event last year on Nov 1, 2014. 4 to.6 inches of snow fell in Lexington, SC that day. An extremely anomalous, deep cold core cut-off Upper Low centered over South Carolina bought that snow there and sent record cold all the way into the Florida peninsula. We almost saw one of the earliest first freezes on record here in Jax from that event last year. I always like to back on that event from last season, one of the most unique events in quite sometime for the Deep South.

Nov 1, 2014



I have seen some interesting predictions from Ntxw, Ralph, and Jag95 so far. Get in your prediction for your area, especially for us living across the Southern tier of the CONUS.

[Bizzles]

I'm going with 10/18 for Central NJ

Well the night of 10/18...i'm implying the wee early morning of the 19th.

[northjaxpro]

That is a pretty good call Bizzles. The forecast Big 1030 mb + Polar High will shift from the Midwest eastward to the Mid-Atlantic region by Sunday. Several areas across the interior Mid-Atlantic may reach the freeze mark later this weekend.

[FireRat]

Here in South Florida I'll go with December 15, mainly for the everglades and inland suburbs of Broward & Palm Beach on the East coast and those of Naples northwards on the West coast.

My thinking is the El Nino and a negative NAO may coincide to give us a good cold snap beginning sometime in Dec, the first of the season. So I pick the middle of the month. 32 degrees kind of freeze mind you, no hard freeze.

[northjaxpro]

Well, a good amount of people across the Central Plains, Midwest, Ohio Valley, and portions of the Tennessee Valley and interior Mid-Atlantic saw their first freeze of the Fall/Winter season earlier this morning. This is courtesy to a strong, modified 1034 mb Polar High centered currently over the Ohio Valley region. Some other areas of the Mid-Atlantic will have a shot at seeing their first frost and freeze on tomorrow morning.


So, looking long range, there does not appear to be another significant cold snap to impact the Eastern and Southern CONUS for the next 7-10 days. So still time to get in predictions for the first freeze for all others. Deadline is midnight Halloween.

[WeatherGuesser]

29 this morning.

Forecast for the mid to upper 70s later this week.

Gotta love fall. Hoping for a mild Winter.

[Ralph's Weather]

Looks like we may be getting a recurve out of Champi that may allow for some cold to come south as early as Halloween or more likely the first week of Nov. My prediction is looking OK though maybe a tad early.