2015/2016 Global Model Discussion (Fall, Winter, & Spring)

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chaser1
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2015/2016 Global Model Discussion (Fall, Winter, & Spring)

#1 Postby chaser1 » Wed Nov 18, 2015 5:20 am

Looking at the latest 0Z GFS and 0Z EURO, I was suprised to see both models suddenly jumping on board with what appears to be more support for a fairly energetic front to sweep rain and storms through the Eastern U.S., and a seemingly decent surge of colder air. The other feature that caught my eye was a non tropical low pressure system off the Eastern Seaboard that appears to get blocked with the EURO really beginning to deepen it as it moves closer to the Southeast Conus. I've heard of Nor'easters... but a Sou'easter?? LOL

That's when it occured to me that model run discussion existed in the Tropical Weather forum, but what about during the non-hurricane season "rest of the year"? Whether discussing flash floods, squall lines, arctic outreaks, meso scale storm risk, severe drought and fires, or unseasonalbe heat.... those seeking to discuss the various global model forecast runs, can do so here. Just as during the Hurricane Season our eye is keen to the tropics, no less important are those model tendancies that will ultimately provide a glimpse of anticipated pattern change or significant weather events potentially impacting each of us throughout the U.S., Canada, and the Caribbean.
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#2 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Nov 18, 2015 7:13 am

:uarrow: All for this chaser1. It is just as important, if not even moreso during hurricane season, to follow the global model runs this time of year. Winter storms and other potential systems can impact more people during a particular event, which magnifies the significance of continuing this thread. This strong El Nino ongoing currently will likely bring on numerous storm events now right through at least into Spring 2016.
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Re:

#3 Postby chaser1 » Wed Nov 18, 2015 10:46 am

northjaxpro wrote::uarrow: All for this chaser1. It is just as important, if not even moreso during hurricane season, to follow the global model runs this time of year. Winter storms and other potential systems can impact more people during a particular event, which magnifies the significance of continuing this thread. This strong El Nino ongoing currently will likely bring on numerous storm events now right through at least into Spring 2016.


:wink: Thanks Jax! Sure does look like the Southeast might finally begin to see a bit of the highly anticipated El Nino rains that we've been anticipating. Lets see if the models continue to advertise colder air to make its way south and east toward the middle of next week.
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Re: 2015/2016 Global Model Discussion (Fall, Winter, & Spring)

#4 Postby Portastorm » Wed Nov 18, 2015 10:48 am

Count me in also as someone who thinks this thread is an excellent idea, chaser1. Well done!

While these weather systems have their local impact and we have many threads to opine on those local issues, they usually have a larger impact as well. So I agree it's a great addition to our forum.
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Re: 2015/2016 Global Model Discussion (Fall, Winter, & Spring)

#5 Postby chaser1 » Wed Nov 18, 2015 12:56 pm

:uarrow: Thanks Portastorm :) Yeah, I just figured there'd be a broader level of interest and bantor just as the Tropics model run discussion thread seems to result in. That, and perhaps this thread might allow the NAM to have a chance to win back some the respect lost from getting kicked over and over during the hurricane season LOL.

Speaking of the NAM, it looks as if it and the GFS are at pretty good agreement on the 12Z runs while depicting this first pocket of colder air to drop south out of Canada and a big 'ol surface high nearly smack right over you in Texas at that time. But, what I'm especially curious to see if it pans out starts around 198 hours.

At around that time there looks to be a temporary eastward shift in the long wave pattern with a possible 2nd and larger surge of cold air to drop south from the Northern Plains. Looks like an interesting potential set-up for severe weather from Central Texas up toward S. Illinois. Then (barring likely model fluctuation), cold air looks poised to finally filter down & chill the entire Eastern half of the U.S.... temporarily anyway.

Finally, as an odd wrinkle and also depicted by this mornings run of the GFS at about 198 hours, is for a low to form off the Southern end of the first front, now north of Puerto Rico. That feature Is modeled to drive west all the way into Southern Florida, just ahead of that second and stronger sweeping cold front. Last night's 0Z Euro run also showed a similar but stronger low, however seemingly tropical (or sub-tropical) in nature and actually dropping southwest towards the N. Bahamas by about 240 hours. I'm just waiting to see how fast "that feature" is dropped from those models ;)
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#6 Postby Ralph's Weather » Wed Nov 18, 2015 1:03 pm

12Z GFS depicts a classic Arctic cold front dropping down the Plains on TDay and through Texas by Black Friday. It shows some teens into E TX.
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#7 Postby Ntxw » Wed Nov 18, 2015 1:14 pm

Global weather patterns will be dominated by amplified jet patterns through early Dec. Three major blocking areas (NPac, NAtl, and Caspian) will dictate mid latitude intrusions of colder air. While warmth overspreads the higher latitudes. Big HP systems will set foot in Siberia and western North America usually focusing movement of Arctic air
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#8 Postby Ralph's Weather » Wed Nov 18, 2015 3:54 pm

If you can take a look at the 12Z GFS Ensemble Individual charts for snow at the end of the month. Best one for Texas shows a huge area of 2 plus feet.
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#9 Postby Ralph's Weather » Wed Nov 18, 2015 5:39 pm

18Z GFS looking like 06Z run through 200H with the western trough oriented SW to NE. I has a E Pac system and a system off of the SE coast.

By 300H the Arctic high has finally made it down (I would expect it to move south a bit faster just based on density) and the E Pac system has generated a Gulf low.
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#10 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Nov 18, 2015 11:21 pm

WPC extended 7 day surface analysis going out to Thanksgiving Day shows two significant features. The first is an modified Polar High anchored over New England, which will bring a return, southerly flow from the GOM, and an 1040 mb shallow, Arctic High coming down out of Canada down into the Rockies and Great Plains. If this verifies, this may be setting up for severe weather potential across the Lower-Mid Mississippi Valleyregion late next week. Also, it looks like a shallow, arctic air mass will move south down the Lee of the Rockies into the Southern Plains by next weekend (Nov 27-29) This, combined with an potentially active southern stream, could see a possible ice storm set up across Oklahoma and Northern TX by this specified timeframe. I would monitor this situation closely in the coming days for those of you living in North TX and Oklahoma.


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#11 Postby Ralph's Weather » Thu Nov 19, 2015 6:11 am

Agreed on possible uce storm.

06Z GFS shoves everything east in a +PNA type look. This is counter to other runs and models.
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