Severe Weather (March 31 / April 1)

[cycloneye]

Let's see how this severe event unfolds and hopefully nothing bad occurs.

[EF-5bigj]

There are breaks in the clouds around Meridian.

[Tireman4]

From Mobile Al NWS AFD

00
FXUS64 KMOB 311809 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
109 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

.DISCUSSION...SEE UPDATED INFORMATION BELOW.

&&

.UPDATE...PERSISTENT LONG LIVED SUPERCELL WITH A HISTORY OF LARGE
HAIL AND LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND CONTINUES TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS
EASTERN ESCAMBIA AND SOUTHEASTERN CONECUH COUNTIES IN AL...AND INTO
WESTERN COVINGTON COUNTY AL AS OF 1245 PM CDT. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH INCREASING REFLECTIVITY IS ALSO NOTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST AL AND THE INTERIOR NW FL PANHANDLE. THE
LATEST SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN ENVIRONMENT STILL
CHARACTERIZED BY 500-1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE AND 45-55 KT OF EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR...WITH HIGHEST VALUES NEAR THE COAST. VISIBLE SATELLITE
AND RADAR IMAGERY HAVE SHOWN LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND OFFSHORE DESPITE THE
HRRR`S INSISTENCE OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS THAT STRONGER CONVECTION
COULD DEVELOP THERE. GIVEN THE PERSISTENT NEW DEVELOPMENT FARTHER
INLAND...WILL GO AHEAD AND LET TORNADO WATCH 67 CONTINUE UNTIL
EXPIRATION AT 2 PM FOR NORTHWEST FL AND MUCH OF SOUTHWEST AL. THE
WATCH WAS DISCONTINUED OVER SOUTHEAST MS WHERE CONVECTION HAS GREATLY
DIMINISHED. THE LATEST RAP INDICATES THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL FURTHER
DESTABILIZE WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG OVER SOUTHEAST MS AND
INTERIOR SOUTHWEST AL LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WHERE
WE WILL MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE RE-DEVELOPMENT. /21

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON
WITH BRIEF BREAKS TO VFR AT TIMES OVER THE INTERIOR. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA WILL IMPACT MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL AL AND ADJACENT
INTERIOR NW FL OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. A BRIEF BREAK IN CONVECTION
MAY OCCUR BEFORE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA POTENTIALLY RE-
DEVELOPS OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...WITH ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT. CIGS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO IFR LEVELS THIS EVENING INTO LATE
TONIGHT. /21

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR ALZ051>060-
261>266.

HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR ALZ265-266.

FL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ201>206.

HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR FLZ202-204-206.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR MSZ067-075-076-
078-079.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ631-632-
650-655-670-675.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB

[EF-5bigj]

Tornado watch up from MS to TN http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0070.html

[cycloneye]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0309
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0330 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SE LA...SRN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 312030Z - 312230Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT MAY INCREASE ACROSS SE LA AND SRN MS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE MAY OCCUR
WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN
ISOLATED AND WW ISSUANCE CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS SLY FLOW ACROSS SE LA AND SRN
MS WITH SFC DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. THE MOIST
AIRMASS IS CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG
AS IS ESTIMATED BY MESOCALE ANALYSIS DATA. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED IN THIS MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS FROM NORTH OF
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN NWD TO NEAR JACKSON MS ALONG THE AXIS OF THE
STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW. IN ADDITION TO THE INSTABILITY...MODERATE
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS PRESENT ACROSS THE MCD AREA ACCORDING TO
REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS. 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 40 TO 50 KT ALONG WITH THE
INSTABILITY AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL MAKE SUPERCELLS
WITH LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...WEAK LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL
HELP KEEP MOST OF THE STORMS MULTICELLULAR. DUE TO THE MOIST
AIRMASS...CELLS COULD ALSO PRODUCE WET DOWNBURSTS. SHORT-TERM MODEL
FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NEWD
INTO WW 70.

..BROYLES/THOMPSON.. 03/31/2016

[cycloneye]

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN HENDERSON COUNTY IN WEST TENNESSEE... NORTHWESTERN HARDIN COUNTY IN WEST TENNESSEE... SOUTHERN DECATUR COUNTY IN WEST TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 430 PM CDT

* AT 338 PM CDT... A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR REAGAN... OR 11 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LEXINGTON... MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

HAZARD... TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE... WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED FUNNEL CLOUD.

IMPACT... FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS... WINDOWS... AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR... DECATURVILLE AROUND 350 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE MOUNT TABOR... HINKLE... BATH SPRINGS... MOUNT LEBANON... MONTGOMERY... GARRETT... HANEY... LICK SKILLET... SCOTTS HILL AND THURMAN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A STORM SHELTER OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS... IN A MOBILE HOME... OR IN A VEHICLE... MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

[cycloneye]

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHERN GILES COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE... SOUTHERN LAWRENCE COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 615 PM CDT

* AT 544 PM CDT... A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR LORETTO... OR 16 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LAWRENCEBURG... MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

HAZARD... TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE... RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT... FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS... WINDOWS... AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTHERN GILES AND SOUTHERN LAWRENCE COUNTIES... INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS: MINOR HILL... LEOMA... GOODSPRING... WESTPOINT... PROSPECT... ST. JOSEPH AND ELKTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS... IN A MOBILE HOME... OR IN A VEHICLE... MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

[cycloneye]

Tornado Watch for Central Alabama.