Tornado
Hail
Wind -45% in the southern zones is for potential MCS/QLCS late evening
*****SPC discussion
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1155 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016
VALID 261630Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM N CNTRL TX NWD INTO SERN
NEB...
...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE ENH AREA...FROM
S CNTRL TX NNE INTO THE LWR MO AND MID-MS VLYS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE ABOVE AREAS
FROM S TX INTO THE LWR-MID OH VLYS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC...
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE ABOVE AREAS
FROM THE SRN AND CNTRL PLNS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC CST...
CORRECTED FOR WIND GRAPHIC
...SUMMARY...
A WIDESPREAD...MULTI-EPISODE...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE-WEATHER EVENT
APPEARS LIKELY LATER TODAY THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. TORNADOES...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WIND WILL OCCUR. LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND AND MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL ALSO MAY OCCUR FROM THE LOWER MISSOURI AND LOWER OHIO
VALLEYS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
...SYNOPTIC SETUP...
NR CO UPR LOW WILL PIVOT ENE AS A STRONG NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH THIS
PERIOD AS DOWNSTREAM RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE MS VLY...S AND W OF
QSTNRY SE CANADA VORTEX. SATELLITE AND UPR AIR DATA SUGGEST TWO
SHORTWAVE IMPULSES OF NOTE IN BASE OF CO SYSTEM...ONE NOW OVER FAR W
TX...AND THE OTHER...MORE SIGNIFICANT ONE ALONG THE AZ-NM BORDER.
BOTH FEATURES SHOULD TURN NE ACROSS THE SRN PLNS LATER TODAY THROUGH
TNGT...LARGELY GOVERNING DIURNALLY-ENHANCED STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
REGION. FARTHER NE...A SERIES OF LOW AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES WILL
CONTINUE MOVING ESEWD ALONG SRN FLANK OF CANADIAN LOW...THE LEAD ONE
OF WHICH WILL MOVE OF THE NJ CST THIS EVE.
...SRN PLNS TODAY THROUGH TNGT...
VERY UNSTABLE AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH BROAD CORRIDOR
OF SBCAPE AOA 3500 J/KG FROM W CNTRL TX NNE INTO CNTRL AND ERN KS
/COURTESY OF RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SURMOUNTED BY DEEP AND
PRONOUNCED EML/...WILL FURTHER DESTABILIZE WITH MDT TO STRONG SFC
HEATING TODAY.
COMBINATION OF SFC HEATING WITH STRENGTHENING LARGE-SCALE FORCING
FOR ASCENT WITH LEAD UPR IMPULSE SHOULD PROMOTE INTENSE STORM
DEVELOPMENT BY MID TO LATE AFTN ALONG DRY LINE/LEE TROUGH FROM W
CNTRL TX NNE INTO OK AND KS. SIZABLE MERIDIONAL COMPONENT TO 700-500
MB FLOW ATTM DOWNSTREAM FROM THE IMPULSE SUGGESTS THAT LOW-LVL
BOUNDARY WILL SHOW RELATIVELY MINIMAL EWD MOVEMENT DURING THE DAY.
STRENGTHENING LOW TO MID-LVL FLOW WITH APPROACH/EJECTION OF UPR
IMPULSES /WITH 700-500 MB SPEEDS INCREASING TO AOA 50 KTS FROM NW TX
INTO WRN/CNTRL OK/ LIKELY WILL PROMOTE NUMEROUS SUPERCELLS CAPABLE
OF VERY LARGE HAIL...HIGH WIND...AND STRONG TORNADOES. ESPECIALLY IN
TX AND SRN OK...THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY WILL EVOLVE INTO SEVERAL BROKEN
BANDS THAT MOVE/DEVELOP ENEWD THROUGH TNGT. EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS IN
THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A RISK FOR A FEW TORNADOES...IN
ADDITION LARGE HAIL AND SWATHS OF DMGG WIND ENE INTO THE ARKLATEX.
SOME POTENTIAL ALSO WILL EXIST IN THE NEAR TERM FOR CURRENT ELEVATED
STORMS IN CNTRL OK TO TAP INTO THE WARMING/VERY MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER. WERE THIS TO OCCUR...SUCH A SCENARIO COULD JUMP-START SVR
WEATHER THREAT...INCLUDING TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO VERY LARGE
HAIL...NEWD INTO SE KS BY THIS AFTN.
...CNTRL PLNS THIS AFTN THROUGH TNGT...
HEATING AND APPROACH OF LEAD IMPULSE ALSO WILL SUPPORT RENEWED STORM
DEVELOPMENT INVOF STALLED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND QSTNRY SYNOPTIC FRONT
OVER KS-MO-SRN NEB AREA LATER THIS AFTN. WHILE WIND PROFILES
INITIALLY WILL BE WEAKER AN EXHIBIT BACK-VEERING WITH
HEIGHT...PROFILES WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS LATER
TODAY THROUGH LATE TNGT. TORNADOES
COULD OCCUR AS THE LIKELY NNE-MOVING STORMS INTERACT WITH ENHANCED
SRH NEAR THE SLOWLY-MOVING BOUNDARIES.
