Texas Summer 2016

[weatherdude1108]

Another 1.06 inches in my gauge at the casa today.

5.14 inches since Saturday.

[Brent]

My warmest high in the next 10 days is 86 degrees... have we been relocated somewhere? Because I like this lol...

Lots of blue anomalies on the GFS frame after frame... and lots of rain around too.

Rick Mitchell on NBC 5 just teased that "this weather could continue through the end of August"

[TheAustinMan]

Might be a bit of a cell training situation setting up briefly over areas of south and western Travis County tonight and into the early morning hours.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[Ntxw]

My warmest high in the next 10 days is 86 degrees... have we been relocated somewhere? Because I like this lol...

Lots of blue anomalies on the GFS frame after frame... and lots of rain around too.

Rick Mitchell on NBC 5 just teased that "this weather could continue through the end of August"

Its quite anomalous to achieve. To put into context the current avg high at DFW is 97 and by the 31st is 94. Those are September-esque like forecasts.

[somethingfunny]

I recall a few other anomalous cloudy damp chilly weeks in warm seasons past.... but this feels kind of historic for mid-August. It is just absurd how nice the weather has been lately!

[weatherdude1108]

A couple weeks ago, we weren't sure when these dry and hot doldrums would end. What a switcharoo!

I like the EWX forecast. I also like a little blurb they put in: Good news for drought relief, not so much for the last weekend
before more schools start the rest of this week into the weekend.

That's why kids take raincoats and umbrellas.

000
FXUS64 KEWX 171939
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
239 PM CDT WED AUG 17 2016

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night)...
Earlier model runs were on track with the re-development of
convection across the coastal plains this afternoon. Similarly,
the increase in convection on the Mexican Plateau with diurnal
heating and the approach of the shortwave trough over southern New
Mexico seems on track with model projections. We expect the
models` evolution of storms to continue through late evening and
then taper off around midnight looks on track. The heaviest rain
will probably be late this afternoon into early evening, so we
will keep the Flash Flood Watch going until 7 pm.

&&

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Good news for drought relief, not so much for the last weekend
before more schools start the rest of this week into the weekend.
The mid and upper level shear axis remains locked in over Texas,
with moist, Gulf flow in the easterlies over the coastal plains
and fast-flow with shortwave troughs over the Panhandle and
Trans-Pecos. This combination is favorable for continuing showers
and thunderstorms for the next seven days. PoPs and QPF will
decrease tomorrow and Friday, before picking up again Saturday and
Sunday. Lower PoPs are expected again Monday and Tuesday before
drier conditions finally arrive the middle of next week. However,
looking beyond seven days, the shear axis or even a col in the
mid- and upper-level flow will re-establish over Texas. The end
result may be the end of oppressively hot days for this summer,
as well as continuing drought relief.

[gboudx]

Rain just doesn't want to make it north of I-20 today, except for a cluster that dumped on DFW airport earlier. Maybe there is sinking air like yesterday.

[gpsnowman]

Rain just doesn't want to make it north of I-20 today, except for a cluster that dumped on DFW airport earlier. Maybe there is sinking air like yesterday.

You got that right, gboudx. The cluster just south of downtown Dallas basically disappeared as it hit I-20. A little frustrating but all in all this is awesome weather for August. Just went to the store and felt the cool evening breeze. And a few more days of this before it heats up a bit.

[gpsnowman]

Well me made it. Today is the day we start the long awaited downward trend of the daily normals. 96 for the normal high today instead of 97. A good day for autumn/winter lovers and summer loathers.

[gboudx]

Steve McCauley mentioned it was sinking air that kept most of the metro dry the past 2 days. He says the subsidence is moving northward so the metro should get in on more precip. We can see it this morning with spotty showers across the area, more north than the previous 2 days.

The abrupt weather change from last week should give us some nice relief in our electric bills.

[Ntxw]

With the coming weekend front rain should focus more north and west too. Aug is the new Sept

[Tireman4]

Yea Rain..No heat..

000
FXUS64 KHGX 181522
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1022 AM CDT Thu Aug 18 2016

.MORNING FORECAST UPDATE...

Radar is starting to get active with showers forming mainly along
the coast. More scattered activity is expected today with still
quite a bit of moisture over the region. Precipitable water values
at 12z for CRP/LCH around 2.2-2.3 inches. Upper level analysis at
500mb shows some ridging developing along the coast but it is
rather flat and elongated. Day time heating should be enough for
storms to develop and re-develop this afternoon. Wind profiles are
rather weak so storm motions will be driven by mesoscale processes
and outflow/cold pool interactions. Rain rates will be a solid 1-2
inches of rain an hour but thinking storm motions like yesterday
may just be enough to not cause flooding problems other than
typical street flooding.

Not much else to update in the forecast other than conditions for
today. Rain chances look to continue through the weekend.

Overpeck

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 88 75 91 76 91 / 50 30 40 20 50
Houston (IAH) 88 76 89 76 90 / 50 30 40 20 40
Galveston (GLS) 87 80 86 82 87 / 40 20 40 20 30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...39

[JDawg512]

Since this event started, 7.74 inches has fallen in my yard. A bit too much fell too quickly on Tuesday and I had to sweep the water out of the laundry room. We have a drainage issue where water builds up against the house rather than flowing away. I've been working on creating a couple of ditches that will hopefully let excessive rainfall runoff into the yard.

[weatherdude1108]

Since this event started, 7.74 inches has fallen in my yard. A bit too much fell too quickly on Tuesday and I had to sweep the water out of the laundry room. We have a drainage issue where water builds up against the house rather than flowing away. I've been working on creating a couple of ditches that will hopefully let excessive rainfall runoff into the yard.

We have a drainage issue also with heavy rain in a short period of time. Since Saturday, we have gotten over six inches, but it has been raining slow enough for the French Drain to not back up and flow under the garage doors. This weekend looks interesting per the EWX forecast discussion I'll post here right after this.

[weatherdude1108]

This weekend could get interesting around here.

669
FXUS64 KEWX 182014
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
314 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2016

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night)...

Main highlight remains centered on the pockets of heavy rainfall
that could create localized flooding issues given the saturated
ground this afternoon and into friday across the region. As a
result, temperatures should remain below normal.

A weakly unstable and tropical airmass with mid- and upper-level
divergence is allowing for showers and thunderstorms to be
generated this afternoon as in days past. Water vapor imagery
clearly shows a weak trough across north texas that is helping tap
tropical Pacific moisture. Storms will remain sub-severe but will
be able to produce very heavy rainfall in short periods of time.
Hourly rainfall rates could reach 1-2 inches and with already
saturated soils, this could lead to localized flooding concerns.
The main concentration of heaviest showers will be along and east
of I-35 through the late afternoon and early evening hours. This
activity should wane through the night.

One key time frame to watch for will be overnight into Friday
morning across the Rio Grande Plains, especially near the Big
Bend to Val Verde area. Several short range ensemble models along
with the GFS/EC indicate higher rainfall amounts late tonight
through Friday morning as activity from north Mexico expands.
This solution seems plausible as positive theta-e advection and
upslope isentropic flow coincide with PWATs near 2 inches and
weak upper level support. 1-3 inches will be possible across the
big bend area through friday morning. This area will need to be
monitored closely overnight for flash flooding potential. This
activity, but to a weaker degree, could also shift into the hill
country where pockets of moderate rain could occur. Farther east
during the afternoon, isolated showers/storms will be likely once
again but coverage should be slightly less than today.

&&

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...

Multiple rounds of heavy rain is appearing more likely for the
weekend ahead that could result in areas of flash and river
flooding. A flash flood watch may be needed during this time
frame.

The weak tropical wave off the west coast of Mexico is expected
to get drawn north into the weak trough where jet dynamics will
support enhanced rain and thunderstorm chances. With PWATs near
or increasing to 2-2.2" across most of the region and implied Q
vector convergence in the H5-H3 layer, widespread showers and
thunderstorms appear likely. With such saturation of the
atmospheric column and the antecedent soils, river and flash
flooding risk will be possible has high rainfall rates will be
quite probable. Confidence is not high enough on rainfall totals
through the weekend but would not be surprised if some areas in
central and west received upwards of 4-6 inches in localized
spots. Stay tuned for additional updates on this set-up into the
weekend.

The extra tropical disturbance will weaken and shift north
beginning next week but the overall trough weakness should remain
per long range model agreement. This will allow for rain chances
to drop compared to the weekend but will remain at least 20-40%
through at least tuesday. By midweek, the subtropical ridge will
slowly build back in across the Gulf of Mexico towards the Texas
coast and this should help reduce rain chances to just sea-breeze
activity at 20%.

[Portastorm]

Hate to turn my nose up at August rainfall but the last thing we need this weekend in Travis County is tropically enhanced rainfall. 4-6" of rain would easily create a widespread flash flooding issue in central and western portions of the county.

[Ntxw]

Of course naturally with all the rain forecasted there's a tropical depression recurving in from the EPAC right? Never fails

Frontal boundary; check
Surface flow from the gulf for pwats; check
EPAC disturbance injecting mid and upper moisture/lift; check

Someone write a meteorological paper on this for Texas floods! If Mcfarland can do one for arctic blasts, one can work for the rains pattern

[Yukon Cornelius]

:uarrow:

Hate to turn my nose up at August rainfall but the last thing we need this weekend in Travis County is tropically enhanced rainfall. 4-6" of rain would easily create a widespread flash flooding issue in central and western portions of the county.

Send it my way! We've been forecasted really good rain chances everyday and haven't seen a drop. My grass looks like it's already winter.

[Ntxw]

Many areas of Texas (including Dallas, Houston, Austin) have seen and will finish will a wetter than normal summer (June-August). In some cases double last summer, which was an El Nino go figure right? For most it was warmer to slightly warmer than normal however August will cut some of that down. Overall I'd give this summer a B grade. Not the coolest or best summer but there has been many much worst. The dog days ran from about the last 2 weeks of July to the first week of August, about 3 weeks of torture not too bad.

[Portastorm]

Many areas of Texas (including Dallas, Houston, Austin) have seen and will finish will a wetter than normal summer (June-August). In some cases double last summer, which was an El Nino go figure right? For most it was warmer to slightly warmer than normal however August will cut some of that down. Overall I'd give this summer a B grade. Not the coolest or best summer but there has been many much worst. The dog days ran from about the last 2 weeks of July to the first week of August, about 3 weeks of torture not too bad.

I would generally agree with your grade, Ntxw. However for those of us south of Waco, the summer "dog days" really kicked in around July 4th and didn't end until this past week. We had a good 4-5 weeks of brutal heat and triple digit high temps. Yes, it could have been (and has been) much worse. No complaints here.