Texas Fall-2016

[Ntxw]

Ntx, im getting worried! Some cooling has taken place in the area which could lead to a massive -EPO this winter. Last week or so there has been a massive low bringing cooler air in. Hopefully it stays/becomes even warmer in the GOA!

http://i47.photobucket.com/albums/f192/TeamPlayersblue/cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1_zpsagbylbld.png
http://i47.photobucket.com/albums/f192/TeamPlayersblue/cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1_zpsulbmpanr.png

Im posting via phone so hard to link but check out mid Oct 2013 up there. OSPO sst anomalies is a good source . This is actually quite normal as you need some low heights to build cold up there.

[gpsnowman]

Today's weather just downright sucks. Icky humidity with a strong warm wind. The late week front can't get here soon enough. Weather frustration setting in.

[Tireman4]

Today's weather just downright sucks. Icky humidity with a strong warm wind. The late week front can't get here soon enough. Weather frustration setting in.

I know. Goodness gracious.

[gboudx]

I'm kinda shocked that 57 hasn't been over here taunting us with this weather.

[JDawg512]

This rut needs to end soon and I'm not talking about the temps, though would be nice to actually have Autumn temps in mid October. We've seen this before all too often when forecasts hint at significant rain then as we get closer to the event, the rain chances dwindle away. Honestly the rain that fell this past Thursday night may be the most I get here at my place for all of October. Going by today's forecast, will be lucky to see a quarter inch if we see any rain at all with this upcoming cold front. The low humidity and higher winds behind it will quickly dry out whatever falls and the system next week is already looking insignificant.

What's up with the Euro? Its been off for awhile now while the GFS has been more on target and it's been the drier of the two unfortunately.

[Brent]

The GFS goes right back above normal next week... and very little rain

I swear this hard pattern flip needs to come on.

BTW, if yall think this is bad... Dodge City hit 101 today, first time ever hitting 100 in October...

[Ntxw]

It will feel nicer this weekend and more like October closer to normal. Near 90 today and tomorrow then back to 70s through Monday. Its been the theme this month with warm weekdays and cooler weekends. Still looks dry though I agree

[Tireman4]

Unbelievable. Just unbelievable...ughh...

9.98°NLon: 95.36°WElev: 89ft.
Houston, Texas
Partly Cloudy
91°F
33°C
Humidity 45%
Wind Speed Vrbl 7 G 17 mph
Barometer 29.88 in (1011.8 mb)
Dewpoint 67°F (19°C)
Visibility 10.00 mi
Heat Index 94°F (34°C)
Last update 18 Oct 1:53 pm CDT


It is like an oven out there. My gracious..

[Tireman4]

00
FXUS64 KHGX 181747
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1247 PM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016

.AVIATION.../18Z TAFS/
Visible satellite shows mainly stratocu cloud streets aligned
with boundary layer flow. Overall expect VFR CIGS through the
afternoon and evening. LLJ will be running 15-20kts again about
2000-3000ft AGL so expect another round of MVFR/IFR ceilings for
KCLL/KUTS/KCXO. KCXO may still have visibility down to LIFR
levels. Otherwise Houston terminals should be on the edge of MVFR
ceilings but will keep VFR in TAF. May get some fog again at KLBX
as has been the case the last few mornings.

Overpeck

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1032 AM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Another warm/rain-free day on tap as the upper high lingers over
the area. Current forecast appears to be on track and no changes
are planned at this time. 41

High Temperature Records
TODAY 10/18 WEDS 10/19
CLL 92-2004 97-1921
IAH 96-1895 94-2004
HOU 94-1947 90-2004
GLS 87-2007 86-2004

[Tireman4]

I'm kinda shocked that 57 hasn't been over here taunting us with this weather.

I think is vacationing in Orlando...at least he was earlier this past week.

[Tireman4]

One more day. One more day...of Summer...

00
FXUS64 KHGX 191112
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion...COR
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
610 AM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Dense fog formation, mainly over more rural expanses, will impact the
region through 9 AM. Another unseasonably warm day expected across
southeastern Texas per the state still being under the influence
of mid to upper level ridging. Broad western CONUS troughing will
begin to work on this ridging through the day, pushing the axis of
the ridge over the southeastern U.S. as lower heights move into
the Plains states. While a more efficient warm air advection
pattern will be occurring through the day, with a higher moist
nearshore air mass moving onshore that will be producing thicker
southern county cloud cover and scattered showers /isolated storm,
there should be enough breaks in the clouds to again warm many
interior locations to 90 F or slightly higher. As has been the case
these past few days, a few maximum temperature records will be
threatened (please see Climate section below).

A pre-frontal trough ahead of a main cold front in the vicinity of
the Red River Valley will pass through this time tomorrow, a few
hours on either side of sunrise. The primary surface cold front
will travel across the region tomorrow afternoon, reaching the
coastline during the early Thursday evening hours, as the upper-
mid trough axis advances east into the lower Mississippi River
Valley. The highest probability for widespread rain (showers) with
embedded storms within more organized convection will impact the
area during the day Thursday. A thin line of convection (just ahead
of the main front) has a good chance of affecting the northern
forecast area. Higher PWAT air coming ashore will allow -TSRA
clusters to form and move north, possibly merging with that northern
line to create a more organized line of convection that will move
off the coast latter in the afternoon into early evening. Overall,
the chances for the majority of the CWA to receive measurable rain
are high, but overall accumulations should remain low, or under an
inch. The bulk of the cold and dry advection will occur on Friday,
moderate northerlies scouring out the skies and regulating afternoon
warmth to the upper 70s to lower 80s.

Autumn finally arrives this weekend, clear skies with a weak veering
easterly breeze. The temperature forecast calls for seasonable
afternoon warmth in the upper 70s to lower 80s, near calm clear
overnights/morning conditions conducive for a significant chill out
as interior readings fall into the upper 40s to lower 50s Saturday /
middle to upper 50s Sunday morning. Upper ridging that will envelope
the state over the weekend will begin to move east early in the work
week with onshore flow returning Sunday. Weak disturbances moving up
within the southwesterly flow pattern, along with surges of near 1.4
inch precip waters off the Gulf, will generate periods of mainly
coastal/southern county showers from Monday afternoon through the
last full week of the month. 31

&&

.CLIMATE...
Today`s Maximum Temperature Records (Year) with forecast:

Forecast:
CLL 97 (1921) 92
IAH 94 (2004) 92
HOU 90 (2004) 91
GLS 86 (2004) 88

&&

.MARINE...
Tides are running 0.75-1.0 ft above normal. Will probably see
observed water levels near 3 ft a few hours before/after the
high tide this evening (844pm). This would put water close to or
slightly over parts of the Highway 87 @ Highway 124 intersection.
Don`t expect any other locations to have issues.

Onshore flow 8-15kt will persist thru tonight. Prefrontal trof will
move into the coastal waters Thurs morning w/ just light offshore
winds in its wake. Winds will begin picking up before sunset and
substantially increase Thurs evening and overnight as the front itself
and cooler airmass arrives. Small craft advisory will be required into
parts of Friday until speeds/seas begin to diminish. Onshore flow
resumes Sat night as high pres moves off to the east. 47

&&


.AVIATION...
Areas of dense fog have developed between KCLL & KIAH. This should
burn off by mid morning and conditions should lift back into VFR
territory. There is a bit more moisture around today and do anticipate
scattered showers to develop ~17-22Z inland with daytime heating.
Warm layer of air aloft will limit tstm chances however. Patchy
fog again possible overnight (along with some sct precip near the
coast and offshore). Cool front and bkn band of shra will approach
KCLL mid morning Thurs and metro area toward lunchtime. Winds
will shift to the north, but there will probably be a lag of
several hours until the gustiness arrives. 47

&&

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 93 70 81 52 77 / 20 30 40 10 0
Houston (IAH) 92 72 85 56 79 / 30 20 40 10 0
Galveston (GLS) 88 78 83 67 76 / 30 30 50 10 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: Austin...Colorado...Fort Bend...Grimes...Harris...
Liberty...Montgomery...San Jacinto...Waller...Washington.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...31/47

[Ntxw]

Snow across the northern hemisphere has been explosive this October. The SAI index mainly looks at Eurasia but the severe -AO this month has expanded snow cover through North America and Canada and a similar rapid pace. The area with the slowest advance is Alaska due to persistent NPAC ridge. The Canadian cover I think will play a role in early season cold shots next month. It is better suited to allow cold air not to modify as much compared to if was near normal and not as covered especially in W-central and southern Canada.

Normal climo



What it was Oct 1st



What it is now



This is why it's happening and it will continue into early November to advance

[weatherdude1108]

It's never encouraging when your own weather service ends their last sentence of the discussion with..."unfortunately."

000
FXUS64 KEWX 191151
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
651 AM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016/

SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday)...
Morning low clouds and possible drizzle/fog should quickly improve
by mid morning as mixing begins to take shape. One more day of
unseasonably warm temperatures expected today with highs in the
mid 80s to mid 90s. Highs may approach records in a few spots this
afternoon.

The main weather impact over the short term period will be an
approaching strong cold front anticipated to begin moving into
the Hill Country and Austin area by 10-12Z Thursday morning.
Synoptic models continue to advertise a rather progressive frontal
passage and the 00Z suite is showing a thinner moisture pool along
the pre-frontal low pressure zone. Furthermore, the front in the
longer range hi-res models such as the TTU-WRF show only a thin
line of convection confined to this area and increasing confidence
in the progressive speed of the front.

As a result of the progressive frontal passage, an enhanced
pressure gradient behind the front should keep winds elevated and
gusty, in the 25-35 mph range from about fropa to around 00Z
before relaxing. Cooler temperatures behind the front should keep
min RH values in the 35-40% range and prevent much in the way of
fire weather concerns. Therefore, while not anticipating winds to
approach advisory levels at this time, they will be the most
significant impact of the upcoming frontal passage.

LONG TERM (Thursday Night through Tuesday)...
Aforementioned cold front will bring high pressure and dry
conditions to the area over the next couple days. Lows on Friday
and Saturday morning will fall likely into the 40s for the Plateau
and Hill Country...even the Austin metro area possibly Saturday
morning.

Return flow and moisture returns late Saturday into
Sunday as surface high pressure shifts east to the ArkLaTex and
lower MS river valley. Synoptic ridging will lag behind about 12
hours before also shifting eastward in response to a weak
shortwave low approaching the Big Bend region from the Gulf of
California. The weak synoptic lifting and modest moisture return
will yield slight chance PoPs for Monday and Tuesday. While not
quite as hot as this week, temps should recover back into the 80s
across the CWA and even upper 80s to near 90 by mid
week...unfortunately.

[Brent]

GFS has plenty more above normal temps to come...

[Tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 191835
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
135 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

.AVIATION...
Widely scattered showers this afternoon should continue to develop
and will likely see isolated thunderstorms mainly east of a line
from CXO-SGR. Surge of moisture should arrive toward morning and
will probably see scattered showers expanding out of the coastal
waters near GLS between 08-12z. Prefrontal troughing swings into
the area in the morning/combined with light flow and landbreeze
which should make for favorable conditions for the development of
IFR/LIFR conditions across sites from CLL-UTS-CXO and at least
TEMPO MVFR cigs for IAH/HOU 10-14z. Erosion of low cigs with
increase in rainfall coverage after prefrontal trough passage.
Some guidance showing a stronger cap which may limit precip to
SHRA during the day Thu but will probably have a pocket or two of
TSRA. Moderate northerly flow in the wake of the cold front will
prevail Thu night/Fri morning.
45

[weatherdude1108]

Well, this mid-afternoon discussion is a little more encouraging than the morning discussion.

765
FXUS64 KEWX 191959
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
259 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night)...
Very isolated showers continue mainly east of Interstate 35 this
afternoon as strong capping around 700 hPa should prevent deeper
convection from forming. Clouds are finally beginning to lift out
west to allow most locations to warm into the lower 90s aside from
some 80s in the Hill Country and Edwards Plateau this afternoon. A
weak midlevel trough currently moving through the Rockies will
help push a strong cold front currently stretching from central
Oklahoma into west Texas into our northwestern counties after 9Z.
Although there are slight variations between models, a weak pre-
frontal trough followed by the synoptic front should push through
the Austin-San Antonio corridor between 12-15Z and the southern
edge of our CWA by 18Z. Low temperatures for most locations
tonight should still be rather warm in the lower 70s while
locations behind the front will cool off into the 60s.

Hi-res models are consistent in showing a weak line of isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms, which is generally handled
by 30-40 POPs ending by 18Z for most of the CWA and 21-00Z for our
southernmost counties. Most areas that receive rain will average
between a tenth to a quarter of an inch, but many locations will
remain dry. The GFS and a few hi-res model runs indicate some
enhanced isentropic ascent ahead of the front in the Rio Grande
Plains and our northeast counties, so there may be some brief
heavier downpours in these regions up to one inch. Aside from
rainfall and some patchy fog in the Coastal Plains mainly before
sunrise ahead of the pre-frontal trough, the main weather impact
for tomorrow will be strong northerly winds behind the front.
Sustained northerly winds of 15-25 miles per hour with wind gusts
of 30-35 miles per hour will affect most of the region through the
late morning and afternoon hours before gradually subsiding
Thursday evening. High temperatures for tomorrow are a bit tricky
given cold air advection and cloud cover until tomorrow afternoon,
but will range from mid 70s in the Hill Country to mid 80s in our
southern counties where the front will pass through late morning.
Low temperatures tomorrow evening will be much cooler with dry
air and clear skies ranging from mid 40s in the Hill Country to
mid 50s in the Coastal Plains.

&&

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
The much anticipated below normal temperatures behind the front
will continue on Friday and Friday night as high pressure filters
in and northerly winds subside. Lows Friday night will be the
coolest ranging from lower 40s in the Hill Country to the lower
50s in the Rio Grande Plains. A midlevel ridge moving in behind
the trough to our east will be centered over Texas on Saturday
before beginning to move east on Sunday as moisture and southerly
flow returns. This will set up a truly spectacular weekend weather
wise with highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s and lows in the 50s
and lower 60s. A weak midlevel trough will move through the region
late Sunday into Monday to increase cloud cover to help keep
temperatures from warming much past the mid 80s through the middle
of next week. Another front is not expected until late next week,
and this one may be a more prolific rain producer as now both the
GFS and ECWMF predict a deep midlevel trough off to our west.

[weatherdude1108]

Well, this mid-afternoon discussion is a little more encouraging than the morning discussion. This must be hinting at the allegedly predicted Halloween storm that was mentioned in previous posts.

765
FXUS64 KEWX 191959
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
259 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night)...
Very isolated showers continue mainly east of Interstate 35 this
afternoon as strong capping around 700 hPa should prevent deeper
convection from forming. Clouds are finally beginning to lift out
west to allow most locations to warm into the lower 90s aside from
some 80s in the Hill Country and Edwards Plateau this afternoon. A
weak midlevel trough currently moving through the Rockies will
help push a strong cold front currently stretching from central
Oklahoma into west Texas into our northwestern counties after 9Z.
Although there are slight variations between models, a weak pre-
frontal trough followed by the synoptic front should push through
the Austin-San Antonio corridor between 12-15Z and the southern
edge of our CWA by 18Z. Low temperatures for most locations
tonight should still be rather warm in the lower 70s while
locations behind the front will cool off into the 60s.

Hi-res models are consistent in showing a weak line of isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms, which is generally handled
by 30-40 POPs ending by 18Z for most of the CWA and 21-00Z for our
southernmost counties. Most areas that receive rain will average
between a tenth to a quarter of an inch, but many locations will
remain dry. The GFS and a few hi-res model runs indicate some
enhanced isentropic ascent ahead of the front in the Rio Grande
Plains and our northeast counties, so there may be some brief
heavier downpours in these regions up to one inch. Aside from
rainfall and some patchy fog in the Coastal Plains mainly before
sunrise ahead of the pre-frontal trough, the main weather impact
for tomorrow will be strong northerly winds behind the front.
Sustained northerly winds of 15-25 miles per hour with wind gusts
of 30-35 miles per hour will affect most of the region through the
late morning and afternoon hours before gradually subsiding
Thursday evening. High temperatures for tomorrow are a bit tricky
given cold air advection and cloud cover until tomorrow afternoon,
but will range from mid 70s in the Hill Country to mid 80s in our
southern counties where the front will pass through late morning.
Low temperatures tomorrow evening will be much cooler with dry
air and clear skies ranging from mid 40s in the Hill Country to
mid 50s in the Coastal Plains.

&&

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
The much anticipated below normal temperatures behind the front
will continue on Friday and Friday night as high pressure filters
in and northerly winds subside. Lows Friday night will be the
coolest ranging from lower 40s in the Hill Country to the lower
50s in the Rio Grande Plains. A midlevel ridge moving in behind
the trough to our east will be centered over Texas on Saturday
before beginning to move east on Sunday as moisture and southerly
flow returns. This will set up a truly spectacular weekend weather
wise with highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s and lows in the 50s
and lower 60s. A weak midlevel trough will move through the region
late Sunday into Monday to increase cloud cover to help keep
temperatures from warming much past the mid 80s through the middle
of next week. Another front is not expected until late next week,
and this one may be a more prolific rain producer as now both the
GFS and ECWMF predict a deep midlevel trough off to our west.

[Brent]

FWD also hinting at hope towards Halloween weekend, the LR GFS is pretty wet even though it's fairly warm

By late next week,
the synoptic scale models beginning to come into better agreement
in brining rain chances back to North and Central Texas by the end
of next week and next weekend.

[JDawg512]

This must be the Halloween storm TexasF6 first heard about. Interesting that they used the word prolific since it means large quantities...

Lets see how the rest of the week unfolds with the models.

[Texas Snowman]

I'll just leave these tweets right here...

-----

@BigJoeBastardi: LETS GET FIRE UP WINTER WEATHER GEEKS. Another 3 weeks of warm then look out. Very different from last year....

@BigJoeBastardi: Unlike last yr Plenty of Winter this yr for holidays Join us on https://t.co/4DxCiUR66v/s/4pg5 In meantime check this out...