Texas Spring 2017

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Ntxw
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Re: Texas Spring 2017

#1381 Postby Ntxw » Tue May 30, 2017 10:31 pm

aggiecutter wrote:
Ntxw wrote:Yeah I'm banking on localized rainfall with many seeing little. If anything the better likelihood is we may push towards 100 late weekend to early next week


Where are you seeing that. Near 90 maybe, but nowhere near the 100's. Are you talking about the DFW area?


Gfs has been cutting down the rainfall. 18z has southwest winds for DFW Sunday and Monday with highs 97 and 96
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Re: Texas Spring 2017

#1382 Postby bubba hotep » Tue May 30, 2017 10:32 pm

Ntxw wrote:Yeah I'm banking on localized rainfall with many seeing little. If anything the better likelihood is we may push towards 100 late weekend to early next week


Interesting, 18z GFS has 97/96 for Sunday and Monday but the Euro and Euro EPS are in remarkable agreement that Dallas will struggle to hit 90 over the next 10 days. In fact, they show a high in the low 80s on the 9th...

However, you can see how the GFS does it with that 500mb look.
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Re: Texas Spring 2017

#1383 Postby Ntxw » Tue May 30, 2017 10:36 pm

bubba hotep wrote:
Ntxw wrote:Yeah I'm banking on localized rainfall with many seeing little. If anything the better likelihood is we may push towards 100 late weekend to early next week


Interesting, 18z GFS has 97/96 for Sunday and Monday but the Euro and Euro EPS are in remarkable agreement that Dallas will struggle to hit 90 over the next 10 days. In fact, they show a high in the low 80s on the 9th...

However, you can see how the GFS does it with that 500mb look.


If we don't see notable rain, prefrontal heat I'd bet overachieves into the 90s. I do think the GFS is a little anxious but trend is go with the warmer, drier solution until I see it change :P
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Re: Texas Spring 2017

#1384 Postby bubba hotep » Tue May 30, 2017 10:39 pm

Ntxw wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:
Ntxw wrote:Yeah I'm banking on localized rainfall with many seeing little. If anything the better likelihood is we may push towards 100 late weekend to early next week


Interesting, 18z GFS has 97/96 for Sunday and Monday but the Euro and Euro EPS are in remarkable agreement that Dallas will struggle to hit 90 over the next 10 days. In fact, they show a high in the low 80s on the 9th...

However, you can see how the GFS does it with that 500mb look.


If we don't see notable rain, prefrontal heat I'd bet overachieves into the 90s. I do think the GFS is a little anxious but trend is go with the warmer, drier solution until I see it change :P


Hard to bet against drier, warmer has been a bit trickier. However, as we move into June, it is harder to get cooler temps without cloud cover and rainfall.
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Re: Texas Spring 2017

#1385 Postby Brent » Tue May 30, 2017 10:49 pm

I'm definitely not getting my hopes up for cooler than normal temperatures unless the rainfall starts overachieving(which the trend has been the opposite for weeks now). DFW is 4th driest May on record right now and odds are it won't rain before midnight tomorrow. I've been increasingly disturbed about the summer since that trend of dry started. Unless we start getting good rains, I would be shocked not to see DFW hit 100 in June.

June is coming and climo is only against us as we go later.

I should note about the GFS though, it's swung 20 degrees since last night about the Sunday/Monday timeframe. Last night had near record lows, now it has almost record highs. :roll:
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Re: Texas Spring 2017

#1386 Postby Cpv17 » Wed May 31, 2017 12:28 am

The models don't match the forecast. How's it possible to have multiple days of 50%+ rain chances and the models are only saying .5" to 1.5" of rain over the next week for SE TX?
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Re: Texas Spring 2017

#1387 Postby South Texas Storms » Wed May 31, 2017 12:57 am

Cpv17 wrote:The models don't match the forecast. How's it possible to have multiple days of 50%+ rain chances and the models are only saying .5" to 1.5" of rain over the next week for SE TX?


The forecasts are favoring more of a Euro solution, which is going for much wetter conditions across a large part of Texas (compared to the GFS). The 12z Euro was showing widespread 2-3 inches across SE TX over the next week or so.
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Re: Texas Spring 2017

#1388 Postby Cpv17 » Wed May 31, 2017 1:05 am

South Texas Storms wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:The models don't match the forecast. How's it possible to have multiple days of 50%+ rain chances and the models are only saying .5" to 1.5" of rain over the next week for SE TX?


The forecasts are favoring more of a Euro solution, which is going for much wetter conditions across a large part of Texas (compared to the GFS). The 12z Euro was showing widespread 2-3 inches across SE TX over the next week or so.


I just use the tropicaltidbits website so the Euro is the one model on there that I can't really see for precipitation totals. I've just been a bit confused by the high rain percentages that are being forecasted and then I look at the GFS and yeah..didn't make sense to me lol
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Re: Texas Spring 2017

#1389 Postby Brent » Wed May 31, 2017 2:36 am

GFS has 102 at DFW on June 9th. Fortunately I'm going to NYC that day. :lol:

Mid 90s Sunday/Monday

Euro continues to have temperatures closer to low/mid 80s throughout the 10 days though.
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Re: Texas Spring 2017

#1390 Postby Tireman4 » Wed May 31, 2017 8:45 am

00
FXUS64 KHGX 311148
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
648 AM CDT Wed May 31 2017

.AVIATION...
Some brief IFR cigs possible near the Houston terminals early this
morning but conditions are expected to improve quickly. Convective
temps are in the lower 80`s today so daytime heating should
trigger scattered shra/tsra later today. Precip should end by
evening with generally VFR conds expected through 06z. MVFR cigs
possible between 06-09z in advance of another weak short wave.
Could get some showers prior to Thursday morning sunrise near the
coast as low level moisture increases over SE TX. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT Wed May 31 2017/

DISCUSSION...
A coastal trough remains located just off the Upper Texas coast
early this morning, with backed easterly flow in the vicinity of
this feature resulting in a few showers across the coastal waters
and along Bolivar Peninsula early this morning. Expect this trough
to continue to weaken through the day, with isolated showers
spreading across the coastal counties this morning and isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms developing farther inland
this afternoon as convective temperatures in the mid 80s are
reached. A few brief heavy downpours will be possible in stronger
activity this afternoon and evening.

Showers and storms may linger into the early evening hours before
dissipating with loss of heating. However, the passage of a 60-70
knot subtropical jet streak as a shortwave trough lifts out of
Chihuahua into the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles looks to result in
another round of showers and thunderstorms developing across the
region overnight. Higher resolution and global model guidance
varies with the placement of this jet and, accordingly, where the
best dynamics will be located... which is offering some
inconsistencies on which areas will see rain (and how much).
Lowered rain chances slightly for the overnight period, but
continuing to advertise scattered coverage with the aforementioned
jet near the region. Should favorable jet dynamics set up over
the region overnight to encourage increased upper divergence/lift
over the region, this would help encourage the development of more
storms (and storms that are also more efficient rainfall
producers). Without any well-defined surface boundary and CIPS
analogs showing very little signal for high precipitation
amounts, think the most likely hazard tonight and over the next
few days will continue to be brief heavy downpours.

As a plume of deeper moisture (precipitable water values 1.7-2.0
inches on CIRA layer precipitable water imagery) located about 150
miles south of the Upper Texas coast pushes into the region
tomorrow as the coastal trough loses definition, expect rain
chances to persist inland during the day Thursday with scattered
to numerous diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms expected to
develop. Otherwise, another round of scattered diurnally driven
showers and thunderstorms are expected on Friday with highs in the
mid to upper 80s and lows in the 70s through the end of the work
week.

Another shortwave trough is forecast to drop down the California
coast from the northern Pacific this week, reaching northern
Mexico Friday. Energy ejecting ahead of this main disturbance
looks to reach the region on Saturday, possibly resulting in
more shower and thunderstorm coverage during the day than what the
region sees on Friday. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will
linger into Sunday as the main disturbance reaches Texas with
highs this weekend in the upper 80s and lows in the low to mid
70s.

Medium range guidance still offers differing solutions for when
this weekend`s main disturbance and an associated cold front will
arrive into the region, with the Canadian/GFS advertising the
cold front reaching the region next Tuesday and the European
maintaining the slowest solution with next Wednesday. Have kept
low rain chances (20 PoPs) in the forecast for the beginning of
next week as a result and temperatures near climatological
normals until better consistency is achieved.

Huffman

MARINE...
A weak coastal trough will persist today but the overall pressure
gradient has weakened. A light to occasionally moderate onshore
flow is expected today and tonight. Winds will gradually
strengthen tonight through Friday as low pressure in the lee of
the Rockies deepens. A weaker flow is expected late in the weekend
as the gradient relaxes ahead of a cold front. There are some
timing differences on when/if the cold front crosses the coastal
waters. The Canadian is the fastest and the ECMWF is the slowest
so leaned toward the GFS which was a bit of a compromise bringing
a weak front through on Monday and a second stronger front on
Tuesday. No tide issues expected for the next 5 days. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 88 71 85 71 88 / 30 30 60 30 30
Houston (IAH) 87 73 85 73 87 / 30 40 60 20 50
Galveston (GLS) 86 77 82 78 83 / 20 40 50 20 40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...14
Aviation/Marine...43
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Re: Texas Spring 2017

#1391 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Wed May 31, 2017 8:48 am

Cpv17 wrote:The models don't match the forecast. How's it possible to have multiple days of 50%+ rain chances and the models are only saying .5" to 1.5" of rain over the next week for SE TX?

Same here. I was wondering the same. Multiple day forecast of 50-60% tstorm and rain chances with the Norman office advertising localized flooding due to possible heavy rainfall. Strange.
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Re: Texas Spring 2017

#1392 Postby srainhoutx » Wed May 31, 2017 9:07 am

Wednesday morning briefing from Jeff:

Meso scale influences playing havoc with the forecasts.

Surface low that formed over the NW Gulf of Mexico on Monday moved into SC LA yesterday. This feature has helped to keep NE low level winds in place across the region and limited overall return of moisture behind the storms of Monday morning. Surface troughing feature extending WSW from the surface low across the NW Gulf has been slow to wash out keeping the deep tropical moisture located about 200 miles south of the upper TX coast. Satellite data show extensive moisture plume across the southern and western Gulf of Mexico extending southward to the tropical system attempting to develop along the southern Mexican coast. PWS of 1.9-2.2 inches are common within the moisture plume and as the coastal trough breaks down today, we will begin to see this moisture migrate northward.

Additionally, a strong short wave currently over MX will eject across TX this afternoon and tonight and some of the latest guidance places a 60kt speed max across the area toward Thursday morning. Not seeing any surface boundary to help focus convection, but expect favorable lift and incoming moisture to set off showers and thunderstorms tonight into Thursday. Could see a few showers or storms this afternoon with heating, but bigger event will be late tonight into Thursday.

Overall expecting rainfall amounts of .5-1.5 inches with isolated higher totals. Analog products not hitting on high totals, but anytime you have PWS over 2.0 inches you have to keep an eye on things.

Friday should see a break before a stronger system arrives from the west over the weekend. Expect numerous showers and thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday with additional heavy rainfall possible. GFS and ECMWF remain at odds on when exactly a cool front may attempt to drop into the region…but based on the last front which never really made it and the time of year I have doubts if the front will ever clear the coast.

Will need to continue to keep an eye across the western Gulf of Mexico for the next week to 10 days with lots of convection expected in a very moist air mass. Global models have generally backed away from any surface low formation, but pattern does favor some potential with eastern Pacific energy crossing over and moisture surges from the Caribbean Sea.
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Re: Texas Spring 2017

#1393 Postby Ntxw » Wed May 31, 2017 9:40 am

Yukon Cornelius wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:The models don't match the forecast. How's it possible to have multiple days of 50%+ rain chances and the models are only saying .5" to 1.5" of rain over the next week for SE TX?

Same here. I was wondering the same. Multiple day forecast of 50-60% tstorm and rain chances with the Norman office advertising localized flooding due to possible heavy rainfall. Strange.


The percentages seems right. Remember % is not how much falls just odds of seeing at least 0.01 of rain or trace vs no rain. Localized flooding maybe but even in Oklahoma the trend from earlier in the week is less qpf overall
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Re: Texas Spring 2017

#1394 Postby Brent » Wed May 31, 2017 12:18 pm

Ntxw wrote:
Yukon Cornelius wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:The models don't match the forecast. How's it possible to have multiple days of 50%+ rain chances and the models are only saying .5" to 1.5" of rain over the next week for SE TX?

Same here. I was wondering the same. Multiple day forecast of 50-60% tstorm and rain chances with the Norman office advertising localized flooding due to possible heavy rainfall. Strange.


The percentages seems right. Remember % is not how much falls just odds of seeing at least 0.01 of rain or trace vs no rain. Localized flooding maybe but even in Oklahoma the trend from earlier in the week is less qpf overall


I imagine it's gonna be like the summer storms in Alabama when I lived there... some places get a flood and others don't see a drop.

Looking at the QPF on the hi res models last night was picking that up too.
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Re: Texas Spring 2017

#1395 Postby bubba hotep » Wed May 31, 2017 3:01 pm

It looks like the HRRR is doing HRRR things again by bringing storms into DFW in the early morning hours tomorrow.
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Re: Texas Spring 2017

#1396 Postby Brent » Wed May 31, 2017 3:37 pm

bubba hotep wrote:It looks like the HRRR is doing HRRR things again by bringing storms into DFW in the early morning hours tomorrow.


The 3km NAM looks better than it did at 12z. 12z basically had no rain, the 18z has some heavier cells scattered around.
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Re: Texas Spring 2017

#1397 Postby drewser » Wed May 31, 2017 4:44 pm

Ntxw wrote:Also reminder Thursday we migrate to the summer thread. I don't seem to see it made yet (surprising given wxman57 usually does it sometime in winter).

I thought maybe I was overlooking it as well (not that I'm in a tremendous rush for summer itself).
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Re: Texas Spring 2017

#1398 Postby Brent » Wed May 31, 2017 5:07 pm

drewser wrote:
Ntxw wrote:Also reminder Thursday we migrate to the summer thread. I don't seem to see it made yet (surprising given wxman57 usually does it sometime in winter).

I thought maybe I was overlooking it as well (not that I'm in a tremendous rush for summer itself).


yeah I could have swore I've seen the summer thread before but couldn't find it last night. :lol:
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Re: Texas Spring 2017

#1399 Postby gpsnowman » Wed May 31, 2017 5:51 pm

:uarrow: I was thinking the same thing. I thought maybe Portastorm or Tireman4 created a summer thread already. But then I remembered that Porta created the Spring thread in December out of frustration that winter had sucked up to that point. Ahhh hell, I don't know.
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Re: Texas Spring 2017

#1400 Postby Brent » Wed May 31, 2017 5:57 pm

In other news DFW about to close out with 4th driest May on record. If that doesn't make you concerned about summer...
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