Texas Spring 2017

[1900hurricane]

I've already made sure to get off of work for next Friday. The synoptic signal is that strong across pretty much the entire guidance suite for the past few runs, despite the forecast range.

[bubba hotep]

I wouldn't sleep on tomorrow afternoon/evening for N. TX. Some of the CAMs are firing cells out in front of the cold front. There could be small window of favorable conditions before the front undercuts any ongoing cells.

And SPC upgrades portions of N. TX as I type this.

[1900hurricane]

The parameter space, particularly the low level shear, looks like it will be very high tomorrow evening across the open warm sector over North Texas. However, high convective inhibition and middling low level instability will probably keep things capped over until the arrival of the cold front, at which point impressive parameters become mostly moot. If a storm can somehow manage to fire and persist in the open warm sector, chances are that it would become severe rather quickly, but I highly doubt one will manage to establish itself.

[South Texas Storms]

Man what a change in the latest Euro weeklies. The past few runs have been quite wet and the latest one is much drier. I hope that doesn't verify.

[bubba hotep]

If a cell could get going out ahead of the front then it could go to town. This is from the 12z Texas Tech 3k WRF but even those cells appear to be close to getting undercut by the front. I'm mostly worried about getting hailed on again...

 https://twitter.com/whatisthisrds/status/855234889708445696

[bubba hotep]

Man what a change in the latest Euro weeklies. The past few runs have been quite wet and the latest one is much drier. I hope that doesn't verify.

Yeah, that was kind of odd shift but it matches up with were the storm track seems to be setting up. It's almost like someone drew it up, "this side of 35 gets above normal precipitation and the other side is below normal"

[Brent]

Man the Euro is a blowtorch by the end of the run... could be some widespread 90s at the end of next week depending on that front(it doesn't have much of one through 240 hours)

Even Fox 4 had a 90 on Wednesday after 40s on Sunday.

We just can't shake the general trend of above normal temperatures if that verifies.

[TxDisasterHorn]

I've already made sure to get off of work for next Friday. The synoptic signal is that strong across pretty much the entire guidance suite for the past few runs, despite the forecast range.

Yeah it is looking pretty salty.

[gpsnowman]

Yep, channel 5 on board for a 90 mid week. Just gross. Hopefully the cap will disappear allowing some storms to fire up late next week.

[bubba hotep]

All of the DFW area has been upgraded and includes 30% hail hatch and 5% Tor

[bubba hotep]

Tornado watch coming shortly for N. TX

[Texas Snowman]

Here it is, until 1 a.m.. Extends into southern Oklahoma too.

-----

TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 155
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
440 PM CDT FRI APR 21 2017

TORNADO WATCH 155 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

TXC035-037-063-067-085-093-097-113-119-121-133-139-143-147-159-
181-183-203-213-217-221-223-231-237-251-257-277-315-337-343-349-
363-367-379-387-397-423-425-429-439-449-459-467-497-499-503-
220600-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0155.170421T2140Z-170422T0600Z/

TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BOSQUE BOWIE CAMP
CASS COLLIN COMANCHE
COOKE DALLAS DELTA
DENTON EASTLAND ELLIS
ERATH FANNIN FRANKLIN
GRAYSON GREGG HARRISON
HENDERSON HILL HOOD
HOPKINS HUNT JACK
JOHNSON KAUFMAN LAMAR
MARION MONTAGUE MORRIS
NAVARRO PALO PINTO PARKER
RAINS RED RIVER ROCKWALL
SMITH SOMERVELL STEPHENS
TARRANT TITUS UPSHUR
VAN ZANDT WISE WOOD
YOUNG
$$

[Texas Snowman]

Always nice to see your hometown region highlighted by SPC in a convective outlook...along with the mention of strong tornadoes.

"Prior to this, early boundary layer based development may include a couple of supercells, particularly (roughly) near the Sherman TX/Durant OK area, where the environment could become supportive of an isolated strong tornado or two."

[JDawg512]

Meanwhile down here, the weather has been extremely dull. No rain to speak of and nothing for the next week. We'll see about that upcoming system but for now I'm going into hibernation.

[Brent]

Brief tornado reported just south of Gainesville

Otherwise for DFW the radar is very unimpressive, if something doesn't fire up most areas may see very little rain Storms tried to go south of Decatur and poofed.

[Quixotic]

Big shelf and roll clouds off of the formerly tornado warned cell to my north. Spectacular light show!

[bubba hotep]

Brief tornado reported just south of Gainesville

Otherwise for DFW the radar is very unimpressive, if something doesn't fire up most areas may see very little rain Storms tried to go south of Decatur and poofed.

Storms to the north are still going and one down SW of Ft. Worth but everything in between seemed to get capped.

[bubba hotep]

Cell near Aubrey might be trying to get going a bit more? It appears to be merging with/ overtaking the cell that Tor warned earlier.

[bubba hotep]

Here go again in Collin County...

[Ntxw]

Holy hail...again for Collin County