The 00z Euro EPS keeps a lot of Texas below normal for much of the week after the weekend storm.
Texas Spring 2017
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bubba hotep
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Re: Texas Spring 2017
The 00z Euro EPS keeps a lot of Texas below normal for much of the week after the weekend storm.
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
Re: Texas Spring 2017
So which models are showing a wet May? CFSv2 looks pretty dry for most of the month for Central Texas.
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Resident Rain Miser
I am a weather hobbyist living 3.5 miles south of Downtown Austin and in no way or fashion should anything I say concerning forecasts be taken seriously. Please check your local NWS for accurate weather forecasting and conditions.
I am a weather hobbyist living 3.5 miles south of Downtown Austin and in no way or fashion should anything I say concerning forecasts be taken seriously. Please check your local NWS for accurate weather forecasting and conditions.
Re: Texas Spring 2017
Finally there is now a potential WWB (westerly wind burst) inside believable range 7-14 days. With the 0.5C weekly reading, the +ENSO pattern has legs. May, being one of the wettest months anyway, looks even better than April and we might even throw in a cool month? That would be much away from the recent trend
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Ralph's Weather
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Re: Texas Spring 2017
I made it to 45 yesterday and 44 today. Saturday barely touched 60 here before rains knocked it back down in the late afternoon. Looks like we are in for something similar this weekend maybe.
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weatherdude1108
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Re: Texas Spring 2017
Bob Rose:
Bob's Blog on Central Texas Weather
A Slight Chance for Rain Forecast Wednesday. Othewise, Dry and Warm Weather Expected through Friday.
Monday, April 24, 2017 12:17 PM
Canadian high pressure settling into Texas over the weekend brought with it some noticeably cooler and drier air. High temperatures Sunday were mostly in the middle 70s. Low temperatures this morning were generally in the mid and upper 40s across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions and in the low 50s across the coastal plains. According to LCRA's Hydromet, the lowest temperature observed this morning was 37 degrees at 4 separate Hill Country locations.
A broad ridge of high pressure in the upper atmosphere over the south central US is currently causing very stable weather conditions across the region. At the surface, the large dome of Canadian high pressure that was over our area Sunday has begun moving off to the east. This has brought a return of southerly winds to all of South and Central Texas. The air remains dry for now and this will allow temperatures to warm very efficiently this afternoon. Today's readings are expected to top off near 80 degrees at most locations. Expect south winds to increase to around 10-15 mph. Low temperatures Tuesday morning will be in the upper 50s across the Hill County, with low 60s at most other locations.
Mostly sunny, dry and warmer weather is forecast Tuesday and Wednesday. A trough of low pressure tracking east out of the southern Rockies Tuesday will cause the West Texas dry line to surge to the east, allowing dry and warm air from Mexico to spread east across the Hill Country and the Interstate 35 corridor. The temperature is forecast to climb to the mid and upper 90s across the Hill Country and to around 90-92 degrees across the Austin and Interstate 35 corridor. Locations further east should see highs in the mid and upper 80s. Expect a southwesterly breeze at 10-15 mph. Low temperatures Wednesday morning are forecast to be in the low 60s across the Hill Country and around 70-72 degrees at most other locations.
There will be a very slight chance for a few rain showers and isolated thunderstorms for areas along and east of Interstate 35 Wednesday morning into Wednesday afternoon when a cold front sweeps southeast out of West Texas. The lack of significant moisture will limit the development of significant totals of rain. For areas that do happen to pick up some rain, totals should average well under a quarter inch. Wednesday's temperatures is forecast to be a bit lower thanks to the passage of the cold front. High temperatures will generally be in the mid and upper 80s. The cold front is forecast to push off the middle Texas coast Wednesday evening, allowing slightly cooler air to filter in from the north. Lows Thursday morning will range from the low and mid-50s across the Hill Country to near 60 degrees near the coast.
Mostly sunny and dry weather is forecast Thursday and Friday in the wake of Wednesday's cold front. High temperatures Thursday will be mostly in the mid-80s. Warmer temperatures are forecast Friday as the dry line again spreads east into Central Texas. High temperatures Friday are forecast to be in the low 90s across the Hill Country and the Austin/Interstate 35 corridor. Elsewhere, high temperatures are forecast to be in the upper 80s.
A Canadian cold front is forecast to push southeast across the region Saturday afternoon into Saturday night, bringing slightly cooler air. Forecast solutions indicate an area of rain showers and scattered thunderstorms will develop along the cold front across the Hill Country Saturday afternoon, with the activity spreading southeast Saturday afternoon and Saturday night. The probability for rain is forecast to be near 20 percent across the Hill Country and near 30-40 percent across Central Texas and the middle Texas coast. The chance for rain should end from west to east late Saturday night into Sunday morning. Rain amounts are forecast to only average around a half inch, or less. High temperatures Saturday will generally be in the mid and upper 80s. Lows Sunday morning will range from the upper 50s west to the low 70s near the coast. High temperatures Sunday will be near 78-80 degrees.
Looking ahead to next week, sunny and dry weather is forecast Monday through Wednesday. High temperatures Monday will be near 80 degrees High temperatures for much of the rest of the week are forecast to be in the mid and upper 80s. Low temperatures throughout the week are forecast to be in the 60s. The long-range solutions indicate a wet and unsettled pattern will develop across the area late next week into next weekend when a trough of low pressure slowly tracks east out of the Desert Southwest.
Bob
http://www.lcra.org/water/river-and-wea ... ather.aspx
Bob's Blog on Central Texas Weather
A Slight Chance for Rain Forecast Wednesday. Othewise, Dry and Warm Weather Expected through Friday.
Monday, April 24, 2017 12:17 PM
Canadian high pressure settling into Texas over the weekend brought with it some noticeably cooler and drier air. High temperatures Sunday were mostly in the middle 70s. Low temperatures this morning were generally in the mid and upper 40s across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions and in the low 50s across the coastal plains. According to LCRA's Hydromet, the lowest temperature observed this morning was 37 degrees at 4 separate Hill Country locations.
A broad ridge of high pressure in the upper atmosphere over the south central US is currently causing very stable weather conditions across the region. At the surface, the large dome of Canadian high pressure that was over our area Sunday has begun moving off to the east. This has brought a return of southerly winds to all of South and Central Texas. The air remains dry for now and this will allow temperatures to warm very efficiently this afternoon. Today's readings are expected to top off near 80 degrees at most locations. Expect south winds to increase to around 10-15 mph. Low temperatures Tuesday morning will be in the upper 50s across the Hill County, with low 60s at most other locations.
Mostly sunny, dry and warmer weather is forecast Tuesday and Wednesday. A trough of low pressure tracking east out of the southern Rockies Tuesday will cause the West Texas dry line to surge to the east, allowing dry and warm air from Mexico to spread east across the Hill Country and the Interstate 35 corridor. The temperature is forecast to climb to the mid and upper 90s across the Hill Country and to around 90-92 degrees across the Austin and Interstate 35 corridor. Locations further east should see highs in the mid and upper 80s. Expect a southwesterly breeze at 10-15 mph. Low temperatures Wednesday morning are forecast to be in the low 60s across the Hill Country and around 70-72 degrees at most other locations.
There will be a very slight chance for a few rain showers and isolated thunderstorms for areas along and east of Interstate 35 Wednesday morning into Wednesday afternoon when a cold front sweeps southeast out of West Texas. The lack of significant moisture will limit the development of significant totals of rain. For areas that do happen to pick up some rain, totals should average well under a quarter inch. Wednesday's temperatures is forecast to be a bit lower thanks to the passage of the cold front. High temperatures will generally be in the mid and upper 80s. The cold front is forecast to push off the middle Texas coast Wednesday evening, allowing slightly cooler air to filter in from the north. Lows Thursday morning will range from the low and mid-50s across the Hill Country to near 60 degrees near the coast.
Mostly sunny and dry weather is forecast Thursday and Friday in the wake of Wednesday's cold front. High temperatures Thursday will be mostly in the mid-80s. Warmer temperatures are forecast Friday as the dry line again spreads east into Central Texas. High temperatures Friday are forecast to be in the low 90s across the Hill Country and the Austin/Interstate 35 corridor. Elsewhere, high temperatures are forecast to be in the upper 80s.
A Canadian cold front is forecast to push southeast across the region Saturday afternoon into Saturday night, bringing slightly cooler air. Forecast solutions indicate an area of rain showers and scattered thunderstorms will develop along the cold front across the Hill Country Saturday afternoon, with the activity spreading southeast Saturday afternoon and Saturday night. The probability for rain is forecast to be near 20 percent across the Hill Country and near 30-40 percent across Central Texas and the middle Texas coast. The chance for rain should end from west to east late Saturday night into Sunday morning. Rain amounts are forecast to only average around a half inch, or less. High temperatures Saturday will generally be in the mid and upper 80s. Lows Sunday morning will range from the upper 50s west to the low 70s near the coast. High temperatures Sunday will be near 78-80 degrees.
Looking ahead to next week, sunny and dry weather is forecast Monday through Wednesday. High temperatures Monday will be near 80 degrees High temperatures for much of the rest of the week are forecast to be in the mid and upper 80s. Low temperatures throughout the week are forecast to be in the 60s. The long-range solutions indicate a wet and unsettled pattern will develop across the area late next week into next weekend when a trough of low pressure slowly tracks east out of the Desert Southwest.
Bob
http://www.lcra.org/water/river-and-wea ... ather.aspx
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The preceding post is NOT an official forecast, and should not be used as such. It is only the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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weatherdude1108
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Re: Texas Spring 2017
EWX discussion pretty much hot and dry, with a cool down and potential strong/severe rain/storms this weekend along the front.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
256 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017
.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night)...
A compact mid level impulse crossing the Mexican mountains will
generate isolated showers and thunderstorms there this afternoon.
Only the HRRR shows any of this moving across the Rio Grande into our
area this evening. Also, previous runs of TTU-WRF showed some moving
into our far western counties. Have a 5 POP for Maverick and Dimmit
Counties where steering flow would take them.
As an upper level trough moves across the Rockies and out into the
High Plains, a surface low drifts to the northeast across the
Southern Plains. South to southwest lower level flow will result.
This increases moisture for stratus formation later tonight into
Tuesday morning, then it mixes out by midday. The main impact of
this will be a rapid strong warmup as 850 MB temperatures warm to
21C-27C and 925 MB to 27C-33C on Tuesday. High temperatures Tuesday
will be about 10 degrees above normal, with some approaching 100
along the Rio Grande. A dryline moves into western areas late Tuesday
night. There may deep enough moisture below a strong cap for patchy
drizzle along and east of Highway 281 by Wednesday morning. Have
silent 10 POPs for this.
.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
The upper level trough moves out across the Plains on Wednesday with
the dryline moving across the remainder of our area by midday. In
spite of a right entrance region of an upper level jet passing
overhead, moisture will be confined to below a strong cap with only
patchy drizzle for only silent 10 POPs east of I-35. Should moisture
become deeper and linger longer, then isolated showers and perhaps a
thunderstorm are possible along the Highway 77 corridor around
midday. Downslope flow will keep temperatures above normal Wednesday.
Strong mixing and a tight pressure gradient will result in breezy
conditions. Some guidance shows speeds near advisory levels. Low
humidities combined with the winds mentioned above will create
elevated to near critical fire weather conditions with best chances
for these conditions west of San Antonio along and southwest of the
Escarpment to the Rio Grande. A cold front moves across our area late
in the afternoon into evening after peak heating. No rain is
expected with the front as moisture will have been scoured out by the
dryline. Cool surface high pressure settles into our area Wednesday
night for a return to below normal low temperatures. Cool down will
be short lived as south to southwest lower level flow quickly returns
on Thursday with high temperatures back above normal. The surface
high moves off to the east as surface pressures lower in the Plains
as an upper level trough takes shape over the western states. Another
strong warming trend is expected for late week into next weekend as
850MB and 925MB temperatures rise again. There are good chances for
100 degree high temperatures along parts of the Rio Grande on Friday
and Saturday as 925MB temperatures near 35C.
The western states upper level trough moves across the Plains next
weekend with a dryline/pre-frontal trough and a cold front moving
across South Central Texas. Timing and consistency issues have been
noted in the models and run to run. The 12Z runs show slightly better
agreement and for now, have gone with a Saturday night frontal
passage and a Sunday upper trough passage. Expect isolated showers
and thunderstorms on Saturday to become more numerous Saturday night
and then end on Sunday. There is a potential of strong to severe
storms as forecast soundings indicate high CAPE and shear.
Temperatures fall below normal in the wake of the front and remain
below normal into next Monday due to cool surface high pressure.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
256 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017
.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night)...
A compact mid level impulse crossing the Mexican mountains will
generate isolated showers and thunderstorms there this afternoon.
Only the HRRR shows any of this moving across the Rio Grande into our
area this evening. Also, previous runs of TTU-WRF showed some moving
into our far western counties. Have a 5 POP for Maverick and Dimmit
Counties where steering flow would take them.
As an upper level trough moves across the Rockies and out into the
High Plains, a surface low drifts to the northeast across the
Southern Plains. South to southwest lower level flow will result.
This increases moisture for stratus formation later tonight into
Tuesday morning, then it mixes out by midday. The main impact of
this will be a rapid strong warmup as 850 MB temperatures warm to
21C-27C and 925 MB to 27C-33C on Tuesday. High temperatures Tuesday
will be about 10 degrees above normal, with some approaching 100
along the Rio Grande. A dryline moves into western areas late Tuesday
night. There may deep enough moisture below a strong cap for patchy
drizzle along and east of Highway 281 by Wednesday morning. Have
silent 10 POPs for this.
.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
The upper level trough moves out across the Plains on Wednesday with
the dryline moving across the remainder of our area by midday. In
spite of a right entrance region of an upper level jet passing
overhead, moisture will be confined to below a strong cap with only
patchy drizzle for only silent 10 POPs east of I-35. Should moisture
become deeper and linger longer, then isolated showers and perhaps a
thunderstorm are possible along the Highway 77 corridor around
midday. Downslope flow will keep temperatures above normal Wednesday.
Strong mixing and a tight pressure gradient will result in breezy
conditions. Some guidance shows speeds near advisory levels. Low
humidities combined with the winds mentioned above will create
elevated to near critical fire weather conditions with best chances
for these conditions west of San Antonio along and southwest of the
Escarpment to the Rio Grande. A cold front moves across our area late
in the afternoon into evening after peak heating. No rain is
expected with the front as moisture will have been scoured out by the
dryline. Cool surface high pressure settles into our area Wednesday
night for a return to below normal low temperatures. Cool down will
be short lived as south to southwest lower level flow quickly returns
on Thursday with high temperatures back above normal. The surface
high moves off to the east as surface pressures lower in the Plains
as an upper level trough takes shape over the western states. Another
strong warming trend is expected for late week into next weekend as
850MB and 925MB temperatures rise again. There are good chances for
100 degree high temperatures along parts of the Rio Grande on Friday
and Saturday as 925MB temperatures near 35C.
The western states upper level trough moves across the Plains next
weekend with a dryline/pre-frontal trough and a cold front moving
across South Central Texas. Timing and consistency issues have been
noted in the models and run to run. The 12Z runs show slightly better
agreement and for now, have gone with a Saturday night frontal
passage and a Sunday upper trough passage. Expect isolated showers
and thunderstorms on Saturday to become more numerous Saturday night
and then end on Sunday. There is a potential of strong to severe
storms as forecast soundings indicate high CAPE and shear.
Temperatures fall below normal in the wake of the front and remain
below normal into next Monday due to cool surface high pressure.
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The preceding post is NOT an official forecast, and should not be used as such. It is only the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Brent
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Re: Texas Spring 2017
GFS has over 2 inches of rain Saturday and temperatures in the 50s on Sunday at DFW! What a way to end April if that verifies lol
And low to mid 40s to welcome May
And low to mid 40s to welcome May
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#neversummer
Re: Texas Spring 2017
I wish there were more people on here from the southern half of Texas. North Texas & south Texas would be like two totally different states in most other areas. DFW area is well represented on here.
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bubba hotep
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Re: Texas Spring 2017
Brent wrote:GFS has over 2 inches of rain Saturday and temperatures in the 50s on Sunday at DFW! What a way to end April if that verifies lol
And low to mid 40s to welcome May
The Euro keeps the heaviest rain east of I35 in the DFW area but the EURO EPS is farther west with the higher totals. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Euro shift back west towards the GFS with this one. And the lows on Monday... Where was this pattern in Feb? Low 40s in May = teens in Feb, right
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
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Brent
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Re: Texas Spring 2017
bubba hotep wrote:Brent wrote:GFS has over 2 inches of rain Saturday and temperatures in the 50s on Sunday at DFW! What a way to end April if that verifies lol
And low to mid 40s to welcome May
And the lows on Monday... Where was this pattern in Feb? Low 40s in May = teens in Feb, right
Seriously this... ever since I checked the GFS earlier that's been all I've been thinking about... I mean I had moved past the horrors of winter but seeing fronts like this this late just makes me wonder... why... lol
heck most of February wasn't even average.
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#neversummer
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bubba hotep
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Re: Texas Spring 2017
So which one of the various CAMs out there is going to break the cap tomorrow and go bonkers over DFW? There is always at least one that finds away to break the cap on dryline days with huge CAPE in place.
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
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Brent
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Re: Texas Spring 2017
In other news the 3km NAM has DFW dropping 20 degrees rapidly Wednesday afternoon during fropa from the mid 70s to the mid 50s. 
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#neversummer
Re: Texas Spring 2017
It's going to be a roller-coaster ride this week oscillating between warm and cool. Near 90 today, 60s after frontal passage tomorrow. Mid to upper 80s Friday, and we'll be in 40s by Sunday morning.
I-35 and eastward stands the best chance for good rains.
Arkansas is where it is 2015ing
I-35 and eastward stands the best chance for good rains.
Arkansas is where it is 2015ing
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
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South Texas Storms
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Re: Texas Spring 2017
Sure is Ntxw. I wish the storm track could shift southward into Texas, however that doesn't look like it will happen this week. Still hoping for a wetter than normal May to keep our soils wet. We gotta keep the heat ridge away this summer!
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Re: Texas Spring 2017
South Texas Storms wrote::uarrow: Sure is Ntxw. I wish the storm track could shift southward into Texas, however that doesn't look like it will happen this week. Still hoping for a wetter than normal May to keep our soils wet. We gotta keep the heat ridge away this summer!
I'm hopeful we can see more help from the tropical Pacific with more Nino like conditions in May. That is the main difference from 2015, systems and western trough is there we just haven't seen the strong subtropical jet show up to help the southern end of these systems.
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South Texas Storms
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Re: Texas Spring 2017
Ntxw wrote:South Texas Storms wrote::uarrow: Sure is Ntxw. I wish the storm track could shift southward into Texas, however that doesn't look like it will happen this week. Still hoping for a wetter than normal May to keep our soils wet. We gotta keep the heat ridge away this summer!
I'm hopeful we can see more help from the tropical Pacific with more Nino like conditions in May. That is the main difference from 2015, systems and western trough is there we just haven't seen the strong subtropical jet show up to help the southern end of these systems.
You're right, the subtropical jet has pretty much been nonexistent with the past several systems. Lots of dry air spreading in from Mexico providing a cap, especially across the southern half of the state.
I think that will change if the systems start to dig farther south into Mexico.
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bubba hotep
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Re: Texas Spring 2017
The 00z 3k NAM unzips the front down through DFW tomorrow and that would probably result in some big hailers again.
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
Re: Texas Spring 2017
Noisy storm moving through the core of the metroplex this morning. Lots of lightning, thunder, and sheets of rain
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bubba hotep
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Re: Texas Spring 2017
2nd very energetic storm of the morning here IMBY.
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
Re: Texas Spring 2017
Front is starting to fill in a bit from Denton and Tarrant counties. Winds have switched and cooled off quite a bit in Decatur and Weatherford. Blustery, cool afternoon.
Luckily timing of this passage is earlier in the day. Had it been slower and afternoon, we'd likely have been included in moderate risk however that didn't happen so the risk is in Louisiana.
Luckily timing of this passage is earlier in the day. Had it been slower and afternoon, we'd likely have been included in moderate risk however that didn't happen so the risk is in Louisiana.
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