Texas Spring 2017

[bubba hotep]

the NAM has an MCS/line moving from Oklahoma into DFW and east in the predawn hours Sunday.

I would be ok with that.

[bubba hotep]

FWD has been able to basically just copy and paste this the last couple of months... Die CAP!!! Regardless of what the models show in the medium range systems keep tracking too far north to provide adequate large scale lift to break things or they have the worst possible timing.

By late afternoon, the dryline will advect toward our western
zones, although its eastward progress may be hampered by the
fairly deep moisture layer which will not be able mix out very
quickly. There is still concern over a low potential for storms to
develop along the dryline by late afternoon, although initiation
will be a challenge given there should still be a stout cap in
place with a lack of large-scale ascent. If a storm or two were
able to initiate and sustain themselves into the favorable air
east of the dryline, they would likely become severe as a
supercellular storm mode would be favored given the shear
parameters. The aformentioned warm/moist boundary layer will
result in several thousand J/kg of SBCAPE which would be
incredibly favorable for any discrete storms if they`re able to
survive in a capped environment. Very large hail would be the
primary threat with this activity, although damaging winds and an
isolated tornado would be possible too. While the thermodynamics
are certainly quite favorable for severe weather, the question
remains whether any storms will be able to initiate whatsoever.
Most CAM solutions make much more sense than yesterday morning`s
runs which had previously been igniting widespread dryline
convection within the forecast area. Most models this morning are
much more reluctant to do so and many keep us completely dry
through the evening hours. Given the cap and lack of ascent, a
dry forecast actually seems like the best bet and it seems quite
possible that the environment will squander the extreme
instability in place today, at least regarding dryline convection.
Have left low PoPs as the threat for this convection to develop
is still non-zero.

[Brent]

Lol the cap again

and the GFS went drier later in the week. It begins again.

[bubba hotep]

HRRR is pretty locked in on no dryline action and the MCS missing DFW to the NE. Looks mostly dry & hot and then dry & muggy.

[Brent]

HRRR is pretty locked in on no dryline action and the MCS missing DFW to the NE. Looks mostly dry & hot and then dry & muggy.

Story of the spring.

[bubba hotep]

Per SPC meso, CAPE is pushing 7000+ in areas just west of DFW and the cap looks to be weakening pretty substantially. Now, will there be even the slightest trigger of a ripple in the flow? Texas Tech fires storms but not seeing any other CAMs pulling the trigger.



Texas Tech hasn't totally given up yet with the 12z trying a come back

[hriverajr]

Feels like Corpus here in Del Rio.. Temp 93 dewpoint 75... yuck

[Yukon Cornelius]

Temp 98. Dewpoint 69. Heat Index 104. Sucks!

[gpsnowman]

The humidity is so thick, you can slice it with a knife. The towers in Las Colinas looked to be in a layer of fog from a distance. Just disgusting. Who could ever enjoy this type of weather??

[hriverajr]

97 T... 77 DP... heat index 111.. not going outside lol

[bubba hotep]

Tornado watch in Oklahoma down to the Red River but some signs of life along the dryline in N. Texas

 https://twitter.com/whatisthisrds/status/868578692020228097

[hriverajr]

That dryline to the west of DFW is almost out of time to pop a storm.

[bubba hotep]

That dryline to the west of DFW is almost out of time to pop a storm.

Area b/w Ringgold and Jacksboro making one last run at it but areas south of that are thinning out. Like you said, running short on time now, esp. since not even a failed attempt yet.

ETA: They didn't last, maybe time for another attempt?

From Ardmore, OK looking SW, pic from @VORTEXJeff

[South Texas Storms]

Elevated rain chances will return to the forecast tomorrow and continue through much of next week as an unsettled weather pattern develops across the region. A few strong to severe storms will be possible late tomorrow, with the main concern transitioning over to flash flooding later in the week as the southern half of Texas will likely receive several rounds of rain over the next 7 days. Some areas could see over 5 inches of rain by next weekend.

The latest WPC QPF map sure looks more like the Euro and I would love for it to verify.

[bubba hotep]

SPC chimes in:



Mesoscale Discussion 0877
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0600 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

Areas affected...Portions of North Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 272300Z - 280030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Portions of north Texas are being monitored for
thunderstorm development. A substantial conditional (upon
development) severe risk exists and watch issuance is possible.

DISCUSSION...Towering cumulus have recently been noted near the Red
River across portions of north TX. While large-scale forcing is weak
at best across this area, continued convergence in the vicinity of a
diffuse dryline may result in storm development during the next 1-2
hours. Steep midlevel lapse rates atop a very warm and moist
boundary layer are resulting in extreme buoyancy, with MLCAPE likely
approaching 6000 J/kg in some areas. With moderately strong
southwesterly midlevel flow across the region, effective shear is
more than sufficient for supercells, and any storms that develop
will have a threat of giant hail and localized, but potentially
significant, wind gusts. While low-level flow, as sampled by area
VWPs, is not overly strong, some tornado threat would also exist
given the extreme CAPE environment and some expected intensification
of the low-level jet later this evening.

It is unclear how many storms, if any, will develop in the short
term across this area, but watch issuance may become necessary if
initiation appears imminent.

..Dean/Guyer.. 05/27/2017

[bubba hotep]

The northern cell maintained and is off to the races but the southern updrafts died as soon as they moved off the dryline and out over the cap. Now the HRRR is pushing the MCS down into the northern portions of DFW later tonight but it is totally missing the current cluster near Ardmore, OK...

[Brent]

are we ever gonna get a fropa at a favorable time of day? Lol to me that's the biggest problem other than the super cap... they always come through in the morning and were lucky to get some dying leftovers

We obviously can't rely on the cap to break from another way

[bubba hotep]

At 00z there was still a strong cap in place but plenty of CAPE, if an MCS can organize and make the southward push. Per latest SPC meso, Supercell Composite Parameter is over 20 now for areas east of I35 (don't know if we should laugh or cry)

From the 00z FWD sounding

[Brent]

Heh I just noticed DFW only got to 80 this morning... if that holds it will tie the record for warmest May low from 2008(and 4 degrees above record from 2006)

[bubba hotep]

Heh I just noticed DFW only got to 80 this morning... if that holds it will tie the record for warmest May low from 2008(and 4 degrees above record from 2006)

Filthy