Texas Spring 2017

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Brent
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Re: Texas Spring 2017

#201 Postby Brent » Mon Mar 20, 2017 10:21 pm

DFW actually hit 92, breaking the record
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Re: Texas Spring 2017

#202 Postby bubba hotep » Tue Mar 21, 2017 8:13 am

Brent wrote:DFW actually hit 92, breaking the record


Interesting setup yesterday with Waco only getting to 83.
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Re: Texas Spring 2017

#203 Postby Ntxw » Tue Mar 21, 2017 8:30 am

Another very warm day today. GFS is actually looking a little better with a decent line of thunderstorms (maybe squall?) late week
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Re: Texas Spring 2017

#204 Postby Brent » Tue Mar 21, 2017 11:23 am

Ntxw wrote:Another very warm day today. GFS is actually looking a little better with a decent line of thunderstorms (maybe squall?) late week


Sunday Night looks possibly interesting too? That one kind of just popped up.

and then definitely some kind of system next Tuesday/Wednesday. Still a bit out there, but if the GFS is right(and FWD is leaning towards it as of now), could be a mess when my parents land next Wednesday. :roll:

Still very active as April begins
Last edited by Brent on Tue Mar 21, 2017 11:52 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Spring 2017

#205 Postby Texas Snowman » Tue Mar 21, 2017 11:40 am

Ahhh, the springtime memories. :D

Seven years ago today on Sunday, March 21, 2010 right here in Denison.

Five inches of white fluff on top of the wildflowers. And my backyard deck.

Image
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Re: Texas Spring 2017

#206 Postby bubba hotep » Tue Mar 21, 2017 12:34 pm

The Euro Weeklies continue to show a very wet pattern moving forward. April is looking very wet.
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Re: Texas Spring 2017

#207 Postby BrokenGlassRepublicn » Tue Mar 21, 2017 12:42 pm

Texas Snowman wrote:Ahhh, the springtime memories. :D

Seven years ago today on Sunday, March 21, 2010 right here in Denison.

Five inches of white fluff on top of the wildflowers. And my backyard deck.

https://scontent-ord1-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/ ... e=596D4E48

I'll never forget that one. I was in Mumbai, India on a business trip and watching the radar while the family slept back home in DFW. They had no idea what they were going to awake to.
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Re: Texas Spring 2017

#208 Postby bubba hotep » Tue Mar 21, 2017 5:57 pm

GFS is trending west with heavier totals for Friday across DFW but the Euro is trending east? Who you got your money on?
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Re: Texas Spring 2017

#209 Postby Ntxw » Tue Mar 21, 2017 7:31 pm

bubba hotep wrote:GFS is trending west with heavier totals for Friday across DFW but the Euro is trending east? Who you got your money on?


Rooting for the GFS. Just glad that we will see a good spring time squall line come through. Cool us off a bit too.
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Re: Texas Spring 2017

#210 Postby bubba hotep » Tue Mar 21, 2017 8:23 pm

Ntxw wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:GFS is trending west with heavier totals for Friday across DFW but the Euro is trending east? Who you got your money on?


Rooting for the GFS. Just glad that we will see a good spring time squall line come through. Cool us off a bit too.


Same here. I don't have any proof but it just seems like the new Euro has struggled with precipitation placement. I wouldn't be surprised to see it shift towards the GFS here. Also, the models are in agreement that the Gulf is fully recovered by the end of the month and open for biz. Systems should start seeing better and better moisture to work with. Storm chasers won't like it because we'll probably see a return of days being dominated by HP supercells.
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Re: Texas Spring 2017

#211 Postby Brent » Tue Mar 21, 2017 9:04 pm

FWD also said earlier about next week's storm they think the gfs will win out because the euro is too fast and progressive so it'll be an interesting test to see if the same applies here

Definitely pulling for the gfs though

I know it's twc but their app has storm chances everyday starting next week through the 15 day forecast
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Re: Texas Spring 2017

#212 Postby TheProfessor » Wed Mar 22, 2017 7:13 am

Brent wrote:FWD also said earlier about next week's storm they think the gfs will win out because the euro is too fast and progressive so it'll be an interesting test to see if the same applies here

Definitely pulling for the gfs though

I know it's twc but their app has storm chances everyday starting next week through the 15 day forecast


Which is kind of funny because the GFS is typically known as being the one that is too progressive.
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Re: Texas Spring 2017

#213 Postby Ntxw » Wed Mar 22, 2017 7:26 am

Friday is squally weather, Sunday if that pans out could be more big hail and some tornado threat in N TX and Oklahoma. Perhaps more super cell tracks.
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Re: Texas Spring 2017

#214 Postby TheProfessor » Wed Mar 22, 2017 7:47 am

Ntxw wrote:Friday is squally weather, Sunday if that pans out could be more big hail and some tornado threat in N TX and Oklahoma. Perhaps more super cell tracks.


Which is a lot better than what looked like a potential outbreak on Friday. It would have been awkward being in a room with many meteorologist, meteorology students, Storm Chasers, and Dr. Greg Forbes while a severe weather outbreak was occurring.(Although there could be some tornadoes further east if Supercells form.)
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Re: Texas Spring 2017

#215 Postby Ntxw » Wed Mar 22, 2017 11:18 am

850 u wind anomalies in the equatorial Pacific shows the current trade burst should be the last for awhile this coming week. Some weak west winds show up near nino 3.4 which perhaps helps the idea of a wet April as mentioned by some in this thread forthcoming
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Re: Texas Spring 2017

#216 Postby Tireman4 » Wed Mar 22, 2017 11:43 am

TheProfessor wrote:
Ntxw wrote:Friday is squally weather, Sunday if that pans out could be more big hail and some tornado threat in N TX and Oklahoma. Perhaps more super cell tracks.


Which is a lot better than what looked like a potential outbreak on Friday. It would have been awkward being in a room with many meteorologist, meteorology students, Storm Chasers, and Dr. Greg Forbes while a severe weather outbreak was occurring.(Although there could be some tornadoes further east if Supercells form.)



Actually, it might have been cool. :)
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Re: Texas Spring 2017

#217 Postby Ntxw » Wed Mar 22, 2017 11:46 am

Even ignoring the surface depictions, next week's southwest shortwaves look potent. If you were to draw up a map for heavy flooding rains, pretty close.
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Re: Texas Spring 2017

#218 Postby TheProfessor » Wed Mar 22, 2017 12:15 pm

Tireman4 wrote:
TheProfessor wrote:
Ntxw wrote:Friday is squally weather, Sunday if that pans out could be more big hail and some tornado threat in N TX and Oklahoma. Perhaps more super cell tracks.


Which is a lot better than what looked like a potential outbreak on Friday. It would have been awkward being in a room with many meteorologist, meteorology students, Storm Chasers, and Dr. Greg Forbes while a severe weather outbreak was occurring.(Although there could be some tornadoes further east if Supercells form.)



Actually, it might have been cool. :)


Perhaps if it were a regular gathering, in fact that would have been loads of fun. But our symposium is rather organized and speakers have been preparing speeches for weeks. I think if an outbreak were to occur there would be a lot of distracted people in the room probably including myself.
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Re: Texas Spring 2017

#219 Postby BrokenGlassRepublicn » Wed Mar 22, 2017 12:52 pm

Ntxw wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:GFS is trending west with heavier totals for Friday across DFW but the Euro is trending east? Who you got your money on?


Rooting for the GFS. Just glad that we will see a good spring time squall line come through. Cool us off a bit too.

Not so much the cool as knocking the pollen pods out of the trees and washing that mess all away. I'm tired of having a runny nose and a green car.
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Re: Texas Spring 2017

#220 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Mar 22, 2017 1:10 pm

I'm starting to consider heading out for my first chase day of the Spring this Sunday. I still have lots of time to consider a target area (or if I even want to go), but the 12Z GFS has a notable tongue of higher Theta-E extending up into the area of better shear near Hillsboro. Combined with the fact that I know that I can get there in time even leaving at 11 at the earliest, that seems like a good starting point for me.
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