#1289 Postby weatherdude1108 » Fri May 26, 2017 1:12 pm
Bob Rose:
Showers and Thunderstorms Expected Sunday and Memorial Day. An Unsettled Pattern Will Continue All of Next Week.
Friday, May 26, 2017 12:29 PM
The weather is beginning to feel quite humid now that considerable moisture is spreading north from the Gulf of Mexico. Friday morning observations showed surface dewpoint temperatures in the low and mid-70s across the region, making conditions feel very sticky. These humid, summer-like conditions are forecast to continue into Sunday. Satellite images late Friday morning showed a large area of low clouds covering the Hill Country and most of South Texas. These clouds are expected to hang on until early afternoon, with the sky becoming mostly sunny. This afternoon's weather is forecast to be breezy and quite warm. The temperature is forecast to reach the low and middle-90s across Central Texas, the lower 90s across the coastal plains, with middle and upper 90s across the Hill Country. Expect a south breeze at 10-15 mph, with occasional gusts to 30 mph. A couple of Hill Country locations might even top out around the century mark. The sky looks to become cloudy across the entire region tonight around midnight. Lows Saturday morning will generally be in the mid-70s.
A very similar pattern of weather is forecast across the area Saturday. With the sky becoming mostly sunny in the afternoon, the temperature should generally warm to the low and middle-90s. Some upper 90s will be possible across the Hill Country.
A change in the weather pattern is forecast to take place across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions Sunday, when a weak cold front sags south out of North Texas. The cold front is forecast to reach the northern Hill Country late Sunday morning, with the front sliding down to the Austin area around late Sunday afternoon and the Interstate 10 corridor by about midnight. With abundant moisture and a fairly unstable atmosphere in place, a zone of rain showers and thunderstorms is forecast to develop along the cold front as it moves to the south. Additional rain showers and thunderstorms are forecast behind the cold front Sunday afternoon and Sunday night. There are indications the atmosphere over the region will be sufficiently unstable such that some of the thunderstorms may be strong to severe. The Storm Prediction Center has placed the Hill Country and Central Texas regions under a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms Sunday into Sunday night. Large hail , damaging downburst winds and dangerous lightning appear to be the primary severe weather threats. The probability for rain will be near 50 percent. Expect a mostly cloudy sky throughout the day. Sunday's temperature is forecast to be near 88-90 degrees.
For the middle Texas coast, Sunday's weather is forecast to be partly cloudy with just a slight chance for a few scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Expect a high temperature in the low 90s. The chance for rain will increase to 60 percent Sunday night as the cold front moves into the area.
Rain amounts Sunday through Sunday night are forecast to generally average between 0.5 and 1 inch, with isolated heavier totals.
Weather conditions across the region on Memorial Day are shaping up to be mostly cloudy with a periods of rain showers and thunderstorms. The first in a series of low pressure troughs is forecast to move into Texas out of Mexico, causing the development of rain showers and thunderstorms. The probability for rain will be near 50 percent. Expect a high temperature in the low 80s. Rain amounts Monday are forecast to average around a half inch.
Friday's forecast data indicates additional waves of low pressure will continue to track across Texas out of Mexico all of next week. Additional periods of rain showers and thunderstorms are forecast across the region Tuesday through Friday, with the heaviest rains expected to occur across the Hill Country. The sky is forecast to stay mostly cloudy throughout the week. Daily high temperatures will be in the mid-80s with low temperatures around 68-70 degrees. Rain amounts next week will be highly dependent on how the passing disturbances interact with the Gulf moisture. Significant totals will be possible.
The forecast solutions indicate this cloudy, wet pattern will likely extend into next weekend. There are indications the rain may actually become heavier and more concentrated next weekend when a large trough of low pressure lifts north into Texas out of Mexico. This unsettled pattern is forecast to continue into the first week of June.
I hope everyone has a safe and enjoyable holiday weekend. Stay weather aware and be prepared to seek shelter in a safe place Sunday and Monday should storms and big rains move into your area.
Bob
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The preceding post is NOT an official forecast, and should not be used as such. It is only the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
