STORM2K

Looking at the UTC time we are now one month away from meteorological spring here in Texas... and it appears our Ohio Valley friends have already kicked off their spring thread festivities, so I thought we might as well get going here. Hopefully this spring will be a cool one, but I'm sure there will be some objectors

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CPC May Outlooks (issued April 20)

CPC AMJ Outlooks (issued March 16)
AMJ Temperatures
AMJ Precipitation
CPC MAM Outlooks (issued Februrary 16)
MAM Temperatures
MAM Precipitation
CPC FMA Outlooks (issued January 19)
FMA Temperatures
FMA Precipitation
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Other Links:

• Texas Drought Monitor
• Texas River Guages
• Pacific/North American Anomaly (PNA)
• Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO)
• Storm Prediction Center Categorical Outlooks: Day 1 | Day 2 | Day 3

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Significant Events
I'll put links to posts regarding significant springttime weather events for future reference.

• March 26 North Texas Hail Event (MDT Risk)
• April 1-2 Squall (HIGH Risk)

Spring is already starting across the south. Trees are starting to leaf-out, azaleas are budding, and I saw a patch of bluebells on my bike ride last Saturday. We had a nasty 3-day winter this year. Time to put all that behind us and welcome the warming weather of spring.

https://www.usanpn.org/data/phenology_maps

wxman57 wrote:Spring is already starting across the south. Trees are starting to leaf-out, azaleas are budding, and I saw a patch of bluebells on my bike ride last Saturday. We had a nasty 3-day winter this year. Time to put all that behind us and welcome the warming weather of spring.

https://wwsanpn.org/data/phenology_maps

For yet another Winter, we get kicked around. Dadgummit

Quite a line of storms from Kansas to Laredo. I'm thinking they'll reach Houston between 7am and 8am. Tomorrow's a holiday for me. Guess I'll watch it rain...

Spring is in the air here. I'm hoping to hear some Thunder later this week.

Guys, I know it's tough but please lets not have two discussions in two threads at the same time. While do I encourage forecasts on spring in this thread. The readers don't need to go back and forth with two threads for the same information. General comments is welcome come March 1st.

Thanks

Ntxw wrote:Guys, I know it's tough but please lets not have two discussions in two threads at the same time. While do I encourage forecasts on spring in this thread. The readers don't need to go back and forth with two threads for the same information. General comments is welcome come March 1st.

Thanks

Thank you for reminding everyone.

GFS is very very wet towards the 2nd week of March... rains everyday pretty much for the rest of the run starting next weekend all the way to mid month

Is this the annual Spring Break rainout? I know it happened last year...

12Z GFS doesn't indicate much rain for Texas (or the Gulf Coast) the second week of March.

Not too surprised by this, trends this evening have been towards storms having a better chance of firing off in the NE burbs of DFW

Warmest at DFW on the 0z GFS is 73 on Sunday, otherwise mostly normal to even some below normal temps for once. No real cold either(coldest is 41 more than once), but also no record warmth...

The severe weather threat looks to be pretty real this year. We've already had one tornado outbreak in SE TX in February & I fear we'll have several more throughout Texas during the next few months.

Meteorological spring is practically here, and a busy night for the midwest. Prayers for them

Whew, had some loud storms last night. Most of the tornadic stuff staid just to my south. Looking ahead, looks like there could be a rinse and a repeat next Tuesday. Low 60 temps with low 60 Dew points was all that was needed for this event with all the Shear. 6z GFS is showing something similar next Tuesday.

1st part of March looks pretty lame for N. Texas.

Pattern wise at 500mb as far as ensembles go look pretty much a repeat of what we have already seen. Cool shots early month, then progressively warmer with a less favorable Pacific. At this point, Im just looking for a southwest trough which usually indicates heavy rains in spring

After a very warm February let's start March off with cooler temps and close to a freeze over night tonight (34)


Gusty north winds and much drier air will lead to elevated fire danger today following this morning's cold front. It will be much cooler, with high temperatures mainly in the 60s. Fire weather conditions will improve this evening as winds diminish and temperatures drop.

A recap of the 2016/2017 (NO Winter)


At DFW Airport, less than 25 percent of the days this winter featured below normal temperatures. There were 34 days with high temperatures of at least 70 degrees. The 14 days with temperatures in the 80s was a record, breaking the previous record of 10 days in both 1908-1909 and 2005-2006. North Texas has seen 3 of the top 10 warmest winters on record in the last 9 years (#10 2008-2009) (#6 2015-2016) (#1 2016-2017)

Welcome spring! Here's to Pacific jet extensions and southwest flow aloft!

1900hurricane wrote:Welcome spring! Here's to Pacific jet extensions and southwest flow aloft!

It can happen in DFW in March

My parents and little brother will be in town March 29-April 1(first ever trip to Texas). You can guarantee there will be some sort of severe weather then.