Texas Spring 2017

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Re: Texas Spring 2017

#81 Postby South Texas Storms » Tue Mar 07, 2017 11:16 am

JDawg512 wrote:I tend to like daylight savings because I'm able to get more yard work done in the late evenings. Something that I can't do during this time of the year and would be harder to get as much done after work if there's less light. Granted, it sucks having deal with shifting your routine due to losing an hour. I'd rather have DST go back to the way it was years ago when it wasn't until the first week of April that it began and Fall Back was before Halloween, at least then it was almost half a year.

Well sure enough, what showers that did form along the front developed just east of Austin. Other than on and off slight rain chances, there's nothing significant going into next week besides temps heading back above normal just in time for SXSW :crying: . I'd prefer 60s and low 70s when walking around DT. Don't care if it rains but if it doesn't then would rather have low humidity.


I'm not sure about that. Latest models are increasing rainfall totals across much of the eastern half of Texas over the next 10 days.
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Re: Texas Spring 2017

#82 Postby wxman57 » Tue Mar 07, 2017 12:03 pm

VERY dry across north Texas now behind the front. Dewpoint of 2 in Mineral Wells (west of Ft. Worth), -1 in Lubbock, Low 20s in the D-FW area. The air isn't that cold, but it sure is dry!
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Re: Texas Spring 2017

#83 Postby Ntxw » Tue Mar 07, 2017 12:23 pm

wxman57 wrote:VERY dry across north Texas now behind the front. Dewpoint of 2 in Mineral Wells (west of Ft. Worth), -1 in Lubbock, Low 20s in the D-FW area. The air isn't that cold, but it sure is dry!


Love it! Got some rain this morning with frontal passage around 4-5am with a thin line. I don't mind milder weather as long as its not humid this time of year.
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Re: Texas Spring 2017

#84 Postby JDawg512 » Tue Mar 07, 2017 1:11 pm

South Texas Storms wrote:
JDawg512 wrote:I tend to like daylight savings because I'm able to get more yard work done in the late evenings. Something that I can't do during this time of the year and would be harder to get as much done after work if there's less light. Granted, it sucks having deal with shifting your routine due to losing an hour. I'd rather have DST go back to the way it was years ago when it wasn't until the first week of April that it began and Fall Back was before Halloween, at least then it was almost half a year.

Well sure enough, what showers that did form along the front developed just east of Austin. Other than on and off slight rain chances, there's nothing significant going into next week besides temps heading back above normal just in time for SXSW :crying: . I'd prefer 60s and low 70s when walking around DT. Don't care if it rains but if it doesn't then would rather have low humidity.


I'm not sure about that. Latest models are increasing rainfall totals across much of the eastern half of Texas over the next 10 days.


I tend to side with caution, a lot can change in 10 days. A lot can change in 5 days for that matter. Through at least 7 days at any rate, it's a fairly benign period with occasional low end chances. I would love for increasing rainfall though!! hope it pans out.
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Re: Texas Spring 2017

#85 Postby TheProfessor » Tue Mar 07, 2017 1:22 pm

JDawg512 wrote:
South Texas Storms wrote:
JDawg512 wrote:I tend to like daylight savings because I'm able to get more yard work done in the late evenings. Something that I can't do during this time of the year and would be harder to get as much done after work if there's less light. Granted, it sucks having deal with shifting your routine due to losing an hour. I'd rather have DST go back to the way it was years ago when it wasn't until the first week of April that it began and Fall Back was before Halloween, at least then it was almost half a year.

Well sure enough, what showers that did form along the front developed just east of Austin. Other than on and off slight rain chances, there's nothing significant going into next week besides temps heading back above normal just in time for SXSW :crying: . I'd prefer 60s and low 70s when walking around DT. Don't care if it rains but if it doesn't then would rather have low humidity.


I'm not sure about that. Latest models are increasing rainfall totals across much of the eastern half of Texas over the next 10 days.


I tend to side with caution, a lot can change in 10 days. A lot can change in 5 days for that matter. Through at least 7 days at any rate, it's a fairly benign period with occasional low end chances. I would love for increasing rainfall though!! hope it pans out.


If the models continue to trend the weekend storm southward(The storm that was and still cautiously is annoying me) we could see rain chances increase in Texas. Models have been digging this storm more and more. CMC does it the most.
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Re: Texas Spring 2017

#86 Postby Brent » Tue Mar 07, 2017 7:04 pm

GFS is really cold early next week DFW gets down to 33 and several days in the 50s for highs :froze:

Accumulating snow in northern arkansas this run
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Re: Texas Spring 2017

#87 Postby JDawg512 » Wed Mar 08, 2017 12:30 am

TheProfessor wrote:
JDawg512 wrote:
South Texas Storms wrote:
I'm not sure about that. Latest models are increasing rainfall totals across much of the eastern half of Texas over the next 10 days.


I tend to side with caution, a lot can change in 10 days. A lot can change in 5 days for that matter. Through at least 7 days at any rate, it's a fairly benign period with occasional low end chances. I would love for increasing rainfall though!! hope it pans out.


If the models continue to trend the weekend storm southward(The storm that was and still cautiously is annoying me) we could see rain chances increase in Texas. Models have been digging this storm more and more. CMC does it the most.


Okay I see what your talking about with the models. For some reason I couldn't load up the GFS model and ensembles on my phone for awhile, but now it's working again.
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Re: Texas Spring 2017

#88 Postby gboudx » Wed Mar 08, 2017 9:02 am

From DFW NWS:

Currently, DFW's last freeze was on Jan 8th which could rank as #1 on the Earliest Last Freeze if there are no more freezes through Spring.


The current #1 on the list is Feb 5th 2008. 2017 would beat it by over almost a month.
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Re: Texas Spring 2017

#89 Postby Ntxw » Wed Mar 08, 2017 9:14 am

Might be a threat of a light frost or freeze next week. Personally, rooting against it we've made it this far might as well go for record earliest last freeze. Plus I already have got some plantings started. East coast will have several shots for good snows from NC to New England, one of them may be a major noreaster. If you really want to see snow, spring break trip there sounds good. But most people want beaches though :D

FYI parts of the Canadian Arctic this week has seen their all time record lows in the -60s. Not just March record lows, all time. It has been brutally cold but because it is centered in North-Central tilted slightly east bulk of displacement will head for east coast and eastern Canada.
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Re: Texas Spring 2017

#90 Postby cctxhurricanewatcher » Wed Mar 08, 2017 10:05 am

Brent wrote:GFS is really cold early next week DFW gets down to 33 and several days in the 50s for highs :froze:

Accumulating snow in northern arkansas this run



That sounds about right for this weather pattern. Spring Break weather in Jan and Feb and "winter" during Spring Break. :roll:
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Re: Texas Spring 2017

#91 Postby Portastorm » Wed Mar 08, 2017 10:47 am

Let's just keep hoping we can reap the benefits from passing systems every 5-7 days with some rain. The more we get now, the better off we are down the road.
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Re: Texas Spring 2017

#92 Postby wxman57 » Wed Mar 08, 2017 10:52 am

Portastorm wrote:Let's just keep hoping we can reap the benefits from passing systems every 5-7 days with some rain. The more we get now, the better off we are down the road.


Is Lake Travis back to normal levels now?
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Re: Texas Spring 2017

#93 Postby South Texas Storms » Wed Mar 08, 2017 11:06 am

wxman57 wrote:
Portastorm wrote:Let's just keep hoping we can reap the benefits from passing systems every 5-7 days with some rain. The more we get now, the better off we are down the road.


Is Lake Travis back to normal levels now?


Yep, looks like most lakes across the eastern half of Texas are near full capacity!

https://waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide
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Re: Texas Spring 2017

#94 Postby Portastorm » Wed Mar 08, 2017 11:18 am

:uarrow:

Yes I will just echo what South Texas Storms mentioned ... Lake Travis is full and the Highland Lakes generally are in real good shape. Technically Travis is currently at 102% full and is 13 feet above the average March level.
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Re: Texas Spring 2017

#95 Postby TheProfessor » Wed Mar 08, 2017 11:48 am

Storm keeps trending south on the GFS, if it were at a time where cold air could find away into Texas we'd be possibly looking at something fun. I'll take getting to hear some thunder when I'm back home too though.
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Re: Texas Spring 2017

#96 Postby cctxhurricanewatcher » Wed Mar 08, 2017 11:50 am

Portastorm wrote:Let's just keep hoping we can reap the benefits from passing systems every 5-7 days with some rain. The more we get now, the better off we are down the road.



Yes! It will be another good summer of floating on the Frio and Guadalupe if we can continue this trend!
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Re: Texas Spring 2017

#97 Postby Ntxw » Wed Mar 08, 2017 11:55 am

TheProfessor wrote:Storm keeps trending south on the GFS, if it were at a time where cold air could find away into Texas we'd be possibly looking at something fun. I'll take getting to hear some thunder when I'm back home too though.


Big western ridge is not a favored pattern for spring snows in the southern plains. But not bad for frontal rains. 0.75-1.5" general amounts shown by the GFS for I-35 and east
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Re: Texas Spring 2017

#98 Postby JDawg512 » Wed Mar 08, 2017 7:06 pm

This afternoon's EWX discussion doesn't seem to favor a lot of rainfall over the next week. There are on and off low end chances but tend to favor areas to the northeast which will have better dynamics. Even the short range models like the HRRR are showing a messy mixture of showers that changes from run to run.

A northwest flow aloft is expected next week which can bring in distubances but with northerly flow at the surface, doesn't look good for any significant rainfall for at least a week. We've had a nice amount of rain this month so it's not like we're in a desperate situation plus as has been mentioned the lakes are full.

Please keep posting positive signs and data for rainfall because that keeps me in a good mood.
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Re: Texas Spring 2017

#99 Postby Brent » Thu Mar 09, 2017 12:16 am

Colder anomalies than most of the winter lol, very close call for a DFW freeze on Tuesday. Several days with highs failing to make 60. Sunday may struggle much over 50.

Image
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Re: Texas Spring 2017

#100 Postby Ntxw » Thu Mar 09, 2017 8:23 am

Looks seasonably chilly for a day or two with some rain. Brunt of the cold is east so glancing blow. Maybe protect plants if you've started but hardly is the great cold outbreaks of March we saw a few years ago. This may be the last "true" winter front until next fall.

Through a litte over 1 week into March and DFW is +6.1F. Quick start to what will continue the streak of above normal months.
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