Texas Spring 2017

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Brent
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Re: Texas Spring 2017

#1321 Postby Brent » Sat May 27, 2017 10:55 pm

HRRR almost completely dissipates the Oklahoma stuff before ever reaching DFW :roll:

NAM has some semblance of a line mostly from Dallas east(DFW might miss out on that solution) :lol:
Last edited by Brent on Sat May 27, 2017 10:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Spring 2017

#1322 Postby bubba hotep » Sat May 27, 2017 10:58 pm

Storms in southern Oklahoma have started to back build and are taking on more of a southerly push. Watching the circle for additional development.

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Re: Texas Spring 2017

#1323 Postby bubba hotep » Sat May 27, 2017 10:58 pm

Brent wrote:HRRR almost completely dissipates the Oklahoma stuff before ever reaching DFW :roll:


Saw that, I'm all in on the 00z 3k NAM lol
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Re: Texas Spring 2017

#1324 Postby bubba hotep » Sat May 27, 2017 11:15 pm

Looks to be some decent lift associated with the front as storms are slowly firing SW along the front

 https://twitter.com/whatisthisrds/status/868681855712845824


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Re: Texas Spring 2017

#1325 Postby bubba hotep » Sat May 27, 2017 11:53 pm

Watch possibly coming for the northern portions of DFW

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Re: Texas Spring 2017

#1326 Postby Brent » Sun May 28, 2017 1:12 am

:double: The line actually looks promising atm

The HRRR slides it north of even the northern DFW metro though as it dies

ETA: The Euro still looks promising to open June, DFW gets almost 3 inches of rain by June 2nd, as of this post, DFW has less than an inch this month. :lol:
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Re: Texas Spring 2017

#1327 Postby gpsnowman » Sun May 28, 2017 2:39 am

Quite the lightning show creeping towards DFW. Looks like the cluster out of Oklahoma is going to make it for a large portion of the area. Bueno.
Denton and Collin counties should be getting in on the action soon.
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Re: Texas Spring 2017

#1328 Postby gpsnowman » Sun May 28, 2017 5:31 am

As usual, a very breif shower near the big airport. Just enough to get everything wet and leave a million dirt spots on my car. On to the next chance.
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Re: Texas Spring 2017

#1329 Postby Ntxw » Sun May 28, 2017 7:53 am

DFW airport picked up 0.01" of rain. On the bright side winds have switched NE so not as hot or feel as terrible today.

Southern half of the state could be wet this week with an active pattern
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Re: Texas Spring 2017

#1330 Postby bubba hotep » Sun May 28, 2017 9:37 am

Brent wrote:
ETA: The Euro still looks promising to open June, DFW gets almost 3 inches of rain by June 2nd, as of this post, DFW has less than an inch this month. :lol:


Regardless of what the Euro shows, shift this south a bit and it is probably right. DFW rain hole!

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Re: Texas Spring 2017

#1331 Postby Ntxw » Sun May 28, 2017 9:46 am

Some light spotty rain along a front and/or boundary cutting the middle of the metroplex
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Re: Texas Spring 2017

#1332 Postby gboudx » Sun May 28, 2017 10:14 am

The boundary is stationary. I'm guessing an outflow that has stalled. I wonder if it could be the focus for convection later today?
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Re: Texas Spring 2017

#1333 Postby Ntxw » Sun May 28, 2017 10:46 am

gboudx wrote:The boundary is stationary. I'm guessing an outflow that has stalled. I wonder if it could be the focus for convection later today?


If convection where to go today, along and south of this boundary likely has the best chance assuming there is some lift
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Re: Texas Spring 2017

#1334 Postby Ptarmigan » Sun May 28, 2017 11:57 am

bubba hotep wrote:
Brent wrote:
ETA: The Euro still looks promising to open June, DFW gets almost 3 inches of rain by June 2nd, as of this post, DFW has less than an inch this month. :lol:


Regardless of what the Euro shows, shift this south a bit and it is probably right. DFW rain hole!

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... cus_28.png


Rainfall forecast models get the forecasted amount right, but get area forecasted wrong.
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Re: Texas Spring 2017

#1335 Postby Ntxw » Sun May 28, 2017 1:06 pm

74 and drizzle today. Far cry from the 90s at this time past couple days and relief.
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Re: Texas Spring 2017

#1336 Postby Ntxw » Sun May 28, 2017 1:36 pm

There is also a lot of popcorn showers between DFW and Abilene, doesn't seem like we will warm up much more today. That frontal boundary is definitely keeping things a little active
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Re: Texas Spring 2017

#1337 Postby bubba hotep » Sun May 28, 2017 2:10 pm

Ntxw wrote:There is also a lot of popcorn showers between DFW and Abilene, doesn't seem like we will warm up much more today. That frontal boundary is definitely keeping things a little active


The front is being very stubborn and not making much progress, that should allow for elevated showers and storms to hang around the DFW are a little longer than expected. Now, maybe the front never moves as far south as modeled?
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Re: Texas Spring 2017

#1338 Postby bubba hotep » Sun May 28, 2017 2:22 pm

Getting a lot of thunder out this way!
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Re: Texas Spring 2017

#1339 Postby Brent » Sun May 28, 2017 2:24 pm

Surprised to hear thunder is the front stalling further north than forecast?
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Re: Texas Spring 2017

#1340 Postby Ntxw » Sun May 28, 2017 2:36 pm

Brent wrote:Surprised to hear thunder is the front stalling further north than forecast?


Wpc surface analysis shows a warm front in N Tex vs cold front elsewhere. Elevated showers extend all the way back to KMAF (midland) and when they hit I-35 and east they become better organized near the boundary
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