STORM2K

HRRR almost completely dissipates the Oklahoma stuff before ever reaching DFW

NAM has some semblance of a line mostly from Dallas east(DFW might miss out on that solution)

Storms in southern Oklahoma have started to back build and are taking on more of a southerly push. Watching the circle for additional development.

Brent wrote:HRRR almost completely dissipates the Oklahoma stuff before ever reaching DFW

Saw that, I'm all in on the 00z 3k NAM lol

Looks to be some decent lift associated with the front as storms are slowly firing SW along the front

 https://twitter.com/whatisthisrds/status/868681855712845824

Watch possibly coming for the northern portions of DFW

The line actually looks promising atm

The HRRR slides it north of even the northern DFW metro though as it dies

ETA: The Euro still looks promising to open June, DFW gets almost 3 inches of rain by June 2nd, as of this post, DFW has less than an inch this month.

Quite the lightning show creeping towards DFW. Looks like the cluster out of Oklahoma is going to make it for a large portion of the area. Bueno.
Denton and Collin counties should be getting in on the action soon.

As usual, a very breif shower near the big airport. Just enough to get everything wet and leave a million dirt spots on my car. On to the next chance.

DFW airport picked up 0.01" of rain. On the bright side winds have switched NE so not as hot or feel as terrible today.

Southern half of the state could be wet this week with an active pattern

Brent wrote:
ETA: The Euro still looks promising to open June, DFW gets almost 3 inches of rain by June 2nd, as of this post, DFW has less than an inch this month.

Regardless of what the Euro shows, shift this south a bit and it is probably right. DFW rain hole!

Some light spotty rain along a front and/or boundary cutting the middle of the metroplex

The boundary is stationary. I'm guessing an outflow that has stalled. I wonder if it could be the focus for convection later today?

gboudx wrote:The boundary is stationary. I'm guessing an outflow that has stalled. I wonder if it could be the focus for convection later today?

If convection where to go today, along and south of this boundary likely has the best chance assuming there is some lift

bubba hotep wrote:

Brent wrote:
ETA: The Euro still looks promising to open June, DFW gets almost 3 inches of rain by June 2nd, as of this post, DFW has less than an inch this month.

Regardless of what the Euro shows, shift this south a bit and it is probably right. DFW rain hole!

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... cus_28.png

Rainfall forecast models get the forecasted amount right, but get area forecasted wrong.

74 and drizzle today. Far cry from the 90s at this time past couple days and relief.

There is also a lot of popcorn showers between DFW and Abilene, doesn't seem like we will warm up much more today. That frontal boundary is definitely keeping things a little active

Ntxw wrote:There is also a lot of popcorn showers between DFW and Abilene, doesn't seem like we will warm up much more today. That frontal boundary is definitely keeping things a little active

The front is being very stubborn and not making much progress, that should allow for elevated showers and storms to hang around the DFW are a little longer than expected. Now, maybe the front never moves as far south as modeled?

Getting a lot of thunder out this way!

Surprised to hear thunder is the front stalling further north than forecast?

Brent wrote:Surprised to hear thunder is the front stalling further north than forecast?

Wpc surface analysis shows a warm front in N Tex vs cold front elsewhere. Elevated showers extend all the way back to KMAF (midland) and when they hit I-35 and east they become better organized near the boundary