Texas Spring 2017

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Brent
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Re: Texas Spring 2017

#1341 Postby Brent » Sun May 28, 2017 2:37 pm

Nice storm here several loud rumbles of thunder

I am glad I didn't roll my car windows down lol
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Re: Texas Spring 2017

#1342 Postby bubba hotep » Sun May 28, 2017 3:04 pm

Not surprising to see some hail out of these cells with decent CAPE hanging around, impressive lapse rates and a bit of forcing

 https://twitter.com/whatisthisrds/status/868919416951627777


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Re: Texas Spring 2017

#1343 Postby bubba hotep » Sun May 28, 2017 3:31 pm

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Re: Texas Spring 2017

#1344 Postby bubba hotep » Sun May 28, 2017 4:53 pm

Portions of S. Texas getting pounded!

 https://twitter.com/bryanwx/status/868938468512210944


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Re: Texas Spring 2017

#1345 Postby Kalrany » Sun May 28, 2017 4:54 pm

:( Was hoping for a heat reprieve here in Houston, but that map looks like a big NOPE. Hubby might get something in Austin, but as of 3 minutes ago was hot and clear at Camp Mabery.
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Re: Texas Spring 2017

#1346 Postby hriverajr » Sun May 28, 2017 6:32 pm

Lots of action around Del Rio.. but none in the city proper.. Was a storm just to the NE that had a really large hail core.. it has weakened. Storms are moving in whatever direction they desire
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Re: Texas Spring 2017

#1347 Postby weatherdude1108 » Sun May 28, 2017 6:34 pm

Pouring and windy right now!
:lightning: :rain: :lightning: :rain: :lightning: :rain: :flag: :flag:
Severe thunderstorm warning until 7pm for most of Austin. 60mph winds and quarter hail.
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Re: Texas Spring 2017

#1348 Postby Shoshana » Sun May 28, 2017 6:44 pm

Lots of lightning with this storm! Haven't seen hail, but there is hail indicated east of us
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Re: Texas Spring 2017

#1349 Postby Ntxw » Sun May 28, 2017 7:11 pm

I sense a very happy Rain Miser down in Austin

Image
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Re: Texas Spring 2017

#1350 Postby weatherdude1108 » Sun May 28, 2017 7:39 pm

Lasted a solid 30 minutes of heavy. No hail. Lots of wind gusts. Picked up about 3/4 inch. Thought we got more by how long and heavy it was. It was mostly wind-driven, so probably missed a lot of the gauge I guess. Went from a high of 91 and disgusting to 70 degrees.
:D
I hope the rain miser got his share.
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Re: Texas Spring 2017

#1351 Postby South Texas Storms » Sun May 28, 2017 10:27 pm

Unreal. San Antonio got shafted again today. The mesoscale hasn't been kind to them lately. Dallas friends...I feel your pain.
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Re: Texas Spring 2017

#1352 Postby Ntxw » Mon May 29, 2017 7:31 am

Another chance of rain by mid to late week. North of I-20 looks best but everyone should have a shot, not holding my breath. But what it should do is keep temps in the 70s and low 80s thursday which for early June is miraculous. Sprawling eastern trough/western ridge will keep us seasonal even below seasonal at times.
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Re: Texas Spring 2017

#1353 Postby Ntxw » Mon May 29, 2017 7:37 am

Also reminder Thursday we migrate to the summer thread. I don't seem to see it made yet (surprising given wxman57 usually does it sometime in winter).
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Re: Texas Spring 2017

#1354 Postby DonWrk » Mon May 29, 2017 8:29 am

I'm ready to see the WPC QPF come to fruition. Seems we've been in the multi inch sector for the past month and have barely accumulated an inch over that time span.

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Re: Texas Spring 2017

#1355 Postby vbhoutex » Mon May 29, 2017 9:35 am

Of some concern to those of us along the coastal areas of Texas and LA is the following if it comes to fruition:
Potential for some sort of weak tropical system or possible hybrid system to develop over the western Gulf of Mexico toward next weekend.

Global forecast models have been hinting off and on over the last couple of days that an area of low pressure may attempt to close off across the western Gulf of Mexico at some point between 6-1 and 6-5. Overnight global runs have come into better agreement that surface low pressure may in fact form in this region as energy form the eastern Pacific is brought northward into the Bay of Campeche and a trough axis resides along the TX coast. It would appear that energy from the eastern Pacific begins to interact with the coastal trough across the lower TX coast by late this week helping to lower surface pressures. The ECMWF develops a surface low and deepens it to nearly 1000mb while tracking it NE/ENE from off the S TX coast toward southern Louisiana. The CMC develops two separate lows….one along the coastal trough which moves NNW into the middle TX coast around June 1 and then a second off the lower TX coast similar to the ECMWF model. The GFS produces no closed system over the western Gulf.

Sea surface temperatures are generally warm enough to support tropical cyclone formation and upper level winds may be generally favorable as well if the surface low actually forms near the coastal trough axis. This type of setup in the past have produced messy looking tropical systems…but they can be capable of extremely large rainfall amounts.

There is already a complicated forecast for much of this week into next weekend and any such development of any tropical feature in the western Gulf of Mexico would only add further complications.

It also seems to mesh some with the qpf map. Will be watching closely to say the least.
We managed 0.77" and mucho wind(g 35) and COPIOUS LIGHTNING with the storms as they moved through from around midnight on this morning. Apparently made for good sleeping as I didn't get up till almost 9am which is unusual for me.
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Re: Texas Spring 2017

#1356 Postby srainhoutx » Mon May 29, 2017 10:09 am

Coastal Flood Advisory Update from Jeff:

A large thunderstorm complex with intense meso low formation over the NW Gulf of Mexico is resulting in strong onshore winds across the coastal waters with several hours of winds gusting over 40mph. This is resulting in a very rapid rise in coastal tides to as much as 3.5-4.0 ft above normal levels.

A coastal flood advisory is in effect until early this afternoon for Chambers, Galveston, Brazoria, and Matagorda Counties and a coastal flood warning is in effect for Calhoun County where flooding on the west side of Matagorda Bay is currently in progress. As the meso low begins to weaken and shift NE along the coast today this should help to weaken onshore winds and gradually reduce the coastal flooding in progress by mid afternoon. Until that time water levels will likely reach dune bases along the Gulf beaches and may overwash portions of Bolivar and the west end of Galveston Island.
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Re: Texas Spring 2017

#1357 Postby bubba hotep » Mon May 29, 2017 10:32 am

DonWrk wrote:I'm ready to see the WPC QPF come to fruition. Seems we've been in the multi inch sector for the past month and have barely accumulated an inch over that time span.

Image


Looks like WPC sided with the GEFS and Euro Op, certainly a mixed signal in the models with the Euro EPS and Canadian ensembles being farther south with the highest totals. The models are dropping energy into the SW with a big ULL in the NE and then some low potential for a disturbance in the Gulf. That is a combo that could result in flooding for some places in Texas. FWD even mentioned "flooding" in a tweet but doesn't discuss that in the latest AFD:

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Re: Texas Spring 2017

#1358 Postby srainhoutx » Mon May 29, 2017 11:49 am

Midday Update from Jeff regarding the rest of the week and the potential for some form of tropical mischief spinning up along the Texas Coast later this week into early next week:

Highly active pattern in place for at least the next week…maybe longer.

Overnight storm complex has moved into the NW Gulf of Mexico where an intense meso low has formed SSW of Matagorda Bay. Gradient wind event across the coastal waters has prompted a short fused Gale Warning with frequent gusts of 40-50mph. These strong ESE to SE winds have resulted in a rapid onset coastal flooding event where tides have quickly risen this morning to over 3.0 ft above normal resulting in some minor coastal flooding especially around Matagorda Bay.

Air mass has been worked over by the overnight storm complex, but actual surface cool front remains stalled well north of SE TX from around Fort Polk to NW of Austin and then SW into SW TX. Upper level cirrus canopy from the Gulf complex is starting to thin allowing some surface heating and thunderstorms have developed recently along the stalled boundary to our north. Additionally, there are numerous outflow boundaries across the region and with enough heating any one of these boundaries could fire off storms. Air mass remains moist, but not nearly as unstable as yesterday so the main threat for any storms that develop will be heavy rainfall with any severe threats a distant second.

Forecast for the next several days will be driven on the meso scale as short waves lined up well into the northern Pacific translate through the long wave trough over the southern plains. Each wave will likely produce a round of thunderstorms capable of heavy rainfall. Additionally, a coastal trough may attempt to form by the middle of the week along the lower and middle TX coast which would encourage speed convergence and numerous coastal thunderstorms…especially in the early morning hours. The air mass will remain moist with PWS of 1.6-1.9 inches into next weekend so heavy rainfall will continue to be the main threats, but there is no well defined boundary to help focus sustained rainfall accept for any coastal trough that may form or outflow boundaries which will be meandering across the region.

Will broadbrush 50% rain chances each day, but some periods will have higher chances as well defined short waves lift across the region helping to spark convection and those periods will be resolved about 24 hours prior to their arrival.

Weekend/Early Next Week:
Global models…most notably the ECMWF…continue to suggest some sort of closed surface circulation attempting to develop along the TX coast possibly from energy moving northward from the eastern Pacific and then interacting with the western Gulf coastal trough. Additionally, a surge of deep tropical moisture will be arriving from the Caribbean into the western Gulf around the same time. The ECMWF develops a 1005mb low off the lower TX coast and slowly brings it NNE/NE toward SE TX/SW LA by early next week. There is some support from the CMC showing a low in the same region during the same time, while the GFS continues to show little to no surface feature. For now will lean toward more of a coastal trough, but will not discount the potential for a surface low to form somewhere along the TX coast this weekend. Forecasts will be strongly tied to if and where any such low would develop with respect to winds, seas, and rainfall potential. It is interesting to note that similar patterns in the past during the early part of June have produce weak tropical systems…most notably TS Allison (1989), TS Allison (2001), and TS Arlene (1993).
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Re: Texas Spring 2017

#1359 Postby aggiecutter » Mon May 29, 2017 11:58 am

:uarrow: Sometimes setups as mentioned above can produce prolific rain fall totals in parts of the state. Storms will form and die, producing outflow boundaries where other storms will form. Predicting where this will occur is very hard to do. The models do a very poor job on the specifics in this type of scenario.
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Re: Texas Spring 2017

#1360 Postby bubba hotep » Mon May 29, 2017 2:19 pm

In a shocking turn of events... the 12z Euro cuts DFW back from 3" of rain to less than an inch over the next week.

ETA: Euro EPS follows along and slashes totals across a large portion of the state, big SE shift. It is amazing how the Euro has developed such a wet bias in the longer range across Texas.
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