Looking good rain wise in the extended. My family down in SA got shafted this last go round with my dad getting 0.22 and my brother getting 0.06. Hoping they get something this week.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
316 PM CDT Mon May 29 2017
.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night)...
The afternoon visible satellite imagery shows some clearing of the
low clouds has taken place across south central Texas. This along
with remnant outflow boundaries has been enough to allow isolated to
scattered convection to develop across the southern Edwards Plateau
and Rio Grande plains. Surface based CAPEs on the order of 2500-3000
J/Kg along with bulk shear vectors near 30kts could yield a strong
cell or two this afternoon. The models also suggest the western Hill
Country, including the Llano and Fredericksburg areas stand a little
better chance for some afternoon convection given a little better
instability. Given the slow storm movement, some locally heavy
rainfall can also be expected. Elsewhere, we can`t rule out a low
chance for some showers and storms, but given all the activity from
the overnight and morning hours, we`ll keep chances fairly low.
For tonight, most areas should stabilize with the loss of daytime
heating and we will only mention a 20% chance for rain across most
areas. The exception will be after midnight across the Rio Grande
plains where the latest models suggest some mid-level shortwaves will
move in late tonight. We have increased rain chances to around 40% to
account for recent model trends.
On Tuesday, we will mention a 20-40% chance for rainfall as daytime
heating along with outflow boundaries and continued mid-level
shortwaves will result in mainly afternoon and evening convection.
.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Rainfall chances will trend upward on Wednesday and Thursday as the
medium range models continue to remain consistent in showing an
active southwest flow aloft traversing the area. Precipitable water
values climb into the 1.5-1.9" range and concerns will be on the
increase for locally heavy rainfall. Currently it appears areas west
of Highway 281 will have the best chance for locally heavy rains.
However, should a convective complex develop out west along the Rio
Grande and move east, we could see locally heavy rainfall across all
of south central Texas. Rain chances remain in the forecast through
the end of the work week into early next week. The models do show a
weak cold front could move in late Sunday or early Monday and help
increase our rain chances.
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