STORM2K

bubba hotep wrote:In a shocking turn of events... the 12z Euro cuts DFW back from 3" of rain to less than an inch over the next week.

ETA: Euro EPS follows along and slashes totals across a large portion of the state, big SE shift. It is amazing how the Euro has developed such a wet bias in the longer range across Texas.

I knew it!!!!

It's getting too predictable lol

Ntxw wrote:I sense a very happy Rain Miser down in Austin

Yes was very happy indeed. Was out on Lake Travis as the storms were blowing up to the west. Made it back home just before the rain started falling here. Lots of frequent cloud to ground lighting. Went Downtown around 8:45 and was fixated on the lighting reflecting off of the Glass of the nearly completed Fairmont Hotel.

Haven't been posting much because my phone is acting up, currently using another device. Should have a new phone before the end of the week.

Looking good rain wise in the extended. My family down in SA got shafted this last go round with my dad getting 0.22 and my brother getting 0.06. Hoping they get something this week.


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
316 PM CDT Mon May 29 2017

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night)...
The afternoon visible satellite imagery shows some clearing of the
low clouds has taken place across south central Texas. This along
with remnant outflow boundaries has been enough to allow isolated to
scattered convection to develop across the southern Edwards Plateau
and Rio Grande plains. Surface based CAPEs on the order of 2500-3000
J/Kg along with bulk shear vectors near 30kts could yield a strong
cell or two this afternoon. The models also suggest the western Hill
Country, including the Llano and Fredericksburg areas stand a little
better chance for some afternoon convection given a little better
instability. Given the slow storm movement, some locally heavy
rainfall can also be expected. Elsewhere, we can`t rule out a low
chance for some showers and storms, but given all the activity from
the overnight and morning hours, we`ll keep chances fairly low.

For tonight, most areas should stabilize with the loss of daytime
heating and we will only mention a 20% chance for rain across most
areas. The exception will be after midnight across the Rio Grande
plains where the latest models suggest some mid-level shortwaves will
move in late tonight. We have increased rain chances to around 40% to
account for recent model trends.

On Tuesday, we will mention a 20-40% chance for rainfall as daytime
heating along with outflow boundaries and continued mid-level
shortwaves will result in mainly afternoon and evening convection.

&&

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Rainfall chances will trend upward on Wednesday and Thursday as the
medium range models continue to remain consistent in showing an
active southwest flow aloft traversing the area. Precipitable water
values climb into the 1.5-1.9" range and concerns will be on the
increase for locally heavy rainfall. Currently it appears areas west
of Highway 281 will have the best chance for locally heavy rains.
However, should a convective complex develop out west along the Rio
Grande and move east, we could see locally heavy rainfall across all
of south central Texas. Rain chances remain in the forecast through
the end of the work week into early next week. The models do show a
weak cold front could move in late Sunday or early Monday and help
increase our rain chances.

weatherdude1108 wrote:Looking good rain wise in the extended. My family down in SA got shafted this last go round with my dad getting 0.22 and my brother getting 0.06. Hoping they get something this week.

Unfortunately, that's how it's been with the past few storm systems. SA has gotten shafted almost every time. I really hope that changes this week.

18z GFS with another option, keeps heaviest totals north of I20. Obvious that models are struggling with the upcoming pattern but they all seem to agree on delivering another shot of unseasonably cool air during the 1st part of June.

Uh oh...

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/869374884476047365

What is going on? lol GFS and Euro both have highs in the 70s or around 80 most of next week at DFW



I know summer is coming

Nevermind, the morning runs look more like summer... even some 100s maybe towards mid June.

South Texas Storms wrote:

weatherdude1108 wrote:Looking good rain wise in the extended. My family down in SA got shafted this last go round with my dad getting 0.22 and my brother getting 0.06. Hoping they get something this week.

Unfortunately, that's how it's been with the past few storm systems. SA has gotten shafted almost every time. I really hope that changes this week.

I'm eyeballing that area of storms to the west of San Antonio. It looks like it is slowly inching its way towards the SA metroplex(?). One can only hope. I think it is forecast to fizzle out before reaching that area. That would be a shocker.smh



Short Term Forecast
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1157 AM CDT Tue May 30 2017

TXZ183>189-202>204-302000-
Val Verde-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera-Gillespie-Kendall-Kinney-
Uvalde-Medina-
Including the cities of Del Rio, Rocksprings, Leakey, Kerrville,
Bandera, Fredericksburg, Boerne, Bracketville, Uvalde, and Hondo
1157 AM CDT Tue May 30 2017

.NOW...
Through 3 PM CDT, a slow eastward moving cluster of showers and
thunderstorms will produce locally heavy rainfall over portions of
the Southern Edwards Plateau and Western Hill Country. Individual
storm cell motions are northeast at 15 mph, and the training of
cells could lead to isolated rainfall amounts over 2 inches. The
highest concentration of storms through 3 PM will remain north of
a line from Del Rio to Leakey to Kerrville. Most of the daytime
rainfall totals over these areas will range between 1/2 and 1
inch. A few storms may contain small hail, gusty winds to 40 mph
and frequent lightning.

Looks like the San Antonio area may finally be getting some rainfall soon.

Cpv17 wrote:Looks like the San Antonio area may finally be getting some rainfall soon.

Looks like it is holding together! Parts of the western metro are getting hammered.

weatherdude1108 wrote:

Cpv17 wrote:Looks like the San Antonio area may finally be getting some rainfall soon.

Looks like it is holding together! Parts of the western metro are getting hammered.

I believe it'll hold together. At this time of the day you rarely see storms fizzle out. It's hot and juicy out there. The atmosphere is primed.

Has anyone seen anything regarding possible rainfall accumulations or flooding potential with the forecasted rain Thursday/Thursday night for N. TX? Thanks.

Cpv17 wrote:

weatherdude1108 wrote:

Cpv17 wrote:Looks like the San Antonio area may finally be getting some rainfall soon.

Looks like it is holding together! Parts of the western metro are getting hammered.

I believe it'll hold together. At this time of the day you rarely see storms fizzle out. It's hot and juicy out there. The atmosphere is primed.

Yeah, makes total sense. It is very juicy!
It just seems like lately these storms in SA (including Austin area) seem to form and fizzle under their own outflow boundaries, skipping town and forming elsewhere. Nice to see it be different today.

My brother in SA texted me and said it's raining heavily there in the north part of town.

Yukon Cornelius wrote:Has anyone seen anything regarding possible rainfall accumulations or flooding potential with the forecasted rain Thursday/Thursday night for N. TX? Thanks.

I don't see anything in guidance that suggest any significant flooding. Things have trended drier over the past few days. Saturday might have some svr potential based purely on CAPE, haven't looked any farther than that. All of this is DFW centric but applicable to most of N. Texas.

bubba hotep wrote:

Yukon Cornelius wrote:Has anyone seen anything regarding possible rainfall accumulations or flooding potential with the forecasted rain Thursday/Thursday night for N. TX? Thanks.

I don't see anything in guidance that suggest any significant flooding. Things have trended drier over the past few days. Saturday might have some svr potential based purely on CAPE, haven't looked any farther than that. All of this is DFW centric but applicable to most of N. Texas.

Thanks for the reply man. I'll dig around a little bit to see if any of our local mets are putting anything out. With me being a decent ways from DWF, in western north TX, we seem to be in a little different pattern lately, if you want to call it that, than dfw has been in. Once again, I appreciate it man!

The tv mets here have about 2 inches+ west of DFW with 1+ in the metro so I would guess any flooding would be localized if someone got under a slow moving storm or something

Yeah I'm banking on localized rainfall with many seeing little. If anything the better likelihood is we may push towards 100 late weekend to early next week

weatherdude1108 wrote:

Cpv17 wrote:

weatherdude1108 wrote:
Looks like it is holding together! Parts of the western metro are getting hammered.

I believe it'll hold together. At this time of the day you rarely see storms fizzle out. It's hot and juicy out there. The atmosphere is primed.

Yeah, makes total sense. It is very juicy!
It just seems like lately these storms in SA (including Austin area) seem to form and fizzle under their own outflow boundaries, skipping town and forming elsewhere. Nice to see it be different today.

My brother in SA texted me and said it's raining heavily there in the north part of town.

Finally SA got slammed today! 1.2 inches at my parent's house on the NW side of town. We're quite thankful.

Hoping for more over the next several days.

Ntxw wrote:Yeah I'm banking on localized rainfall with many seeing little. If anything the better likelihood is we may push towards 100 late weekend to early next week

Where are you seeing that. Near 90 maybe, but nowhere near the 100's. Are you talking about the DFW area?

South Texas Storms wrote:

weatherdude1108 wrote:

Cpv17 wrote:
I believe it'll hold together. At this time of the day you rarely see storms fizzle out. It's hot and juicy out there. The atmosphere is primed.

Yeah, makes total sense. It is very juicy!
It just seems like lately these storms in SA (including Austin area) seem to form and fizzle under their own outflow boundaries, skipping town and forming elsewhere. Nice to see it be different today.

My brother in SA texted me and said it's raining heavily there in the north part of town.

Finally SA got slammed today! 1.2 inches at my parent's house on the NW side of town. We're quite thankful.

Hoping for more over the next several days.

That is awesome! That's more than my parents got on N. side. They got 0.75 of an inch. My brother on NE side just north of airport got 0.35. Still nice to have these daily rain chances!