Severe Weather South Central U.S (March 5-7)

U.S. & Caribbean Weather Discussions and Severe Weather Events

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138886
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Severe Weather South Central U.S (March 5-7)

#1 Postby cycloneye » Sun Mar 05, 2017 12:41 pm

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CST Sun Mar 05 2017

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN AR AND SOUTHWESTERN MO...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE UPPER/MID MS VALLEY TO THE OZARKS AND VICINITY...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE UPPER/MID MS VALLEY TO PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
MID-SOUTH...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms will be possible mainly from Monday evening
through early Tuesday morning across much of the upper and middle
Mississippi Valley southwestward to the Ozarks and Mid-South. The
likelihood for a greater concentration of severe thunderstorms,
including the risk for a few tornadoes, appears to be across parts
of northwestern Arkansas and southwestern Missouri Monday evening.

...Synopsis...
A large-scale upper trough over the western CONUS with multiple
embedded vorticity maxima will move eastward across the
northern/central Plains by Monday evening, eventually reaching the
Upper Midwest/Great Lakes regions by the end of the period. Ascent
attendant to the upper trough will encourage a surface low initially
over the Dakotas Monday morning to develop northeastward to southern
Manitoba/Ontario by Monday night while deepening. An associated cold
front will spread southeastward across parts of the central/southern
Plains into the upper/mid MS Valley and Ozarks region, eventually
overtaking a dryline extending southward from the front across the
central/southern Plains.

...Upper/Mid MS Valley to the Ozarks...
The cold front will be the primary forcing mechanism for convective
initiation across the upper MS Valley and central Plains. Initiation
will likely occur by Monday evening across southern/eastern MN into
IA, northwestern MO, and eastern KS, with convection quickly growing
upscale into a line along the front. Strong to damaging wind gusts
will be the main threat with this activity. Latest guidance suggests
weak instability may develop as far north as southern/eastern MN
into western WI by Monday evening, with the 12Z NAM remaining more
aggressive regarding the degree of low-level moisture return than
the 12Z GFS or 00Z ECMWF. Regardless, enough instability should be
present to support surface-based convection across parts of the
upper to mid MS Valley through early Tuesday morning, as strong
shear associated with the upper trough and long, generally straight
hodographs support an organized convective line with damaging wind
potential. Eventually the southeastward-moving line will encounter a
less unstable airmass across IL into western KY and the Mid-South,
with a slowly decreasing severe threat overnight.

Farther south across far southeastern KS/eastern OK into MO and AR
greater low-level moisture, characterized by at least low 60s
surface dewpoints, should be present. There is increasing concern
for pre-frontal convective initiation along/ahead of the dryline
Monday evening across this region, mainly after 00Z. Forecast
soundings from the NAM/GFS both show enlarged low-level hodographs
and strong effective bulk shear, which will support discrete
supercells if convection can form. Nearly all
convective-parameterizing guidance suggests there will be enough
glancing influence/ascent from the upper trough to the north
combined with strong low-level warm air advection to break the cap
across this area. All severe hazards will be possible with any
supercells that can form, including a few tornadoes. Higher severe
probabilities have been introduced for northwestern AR into
southwestern MO to account for this scenario. The
southeastward-moving cold front will eventually overtake this
pre-frontal convection, with a continued risk of mainly damaging
winds continuing overnight into early Tuesday morning across parts
of the Mid-South.

..Gleason.. 03/05/2017


Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138886
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Severe Weather South Central U.S (March 5-7)

#2 Postby cycloneye » Sun Mar 05, 2017 1:05 pm

0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138886
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Severe Weather South Central U.S (March 5-7)

#3 Postby cycloneye » Sun Mar 05, 2017 1:09 pm

Threats for severe weather return on MONDAY.

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138886
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Severe Weather South Central U.S (March 5-7)

#4 Postby cycloneye » Sun Mar 05, 2017 2:36 pm

1 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138886
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Severe Weather South Central U.S (March 5-7)

#5 Postby cycloneye » Sun Mar 05, 2017 6:43 pm

Storm Prediction Center has added an enhanced risk to northwest AR, southwest MO for Monday evening/overnight. Isolated tornadoes possible

Image
1 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138886
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Severe Weather South Central U.S (March 5-7)

#6 Postby cycloneye » Sun Mar 05, 2017 6:54 pm

1 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

WeatherGuesser
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2672
Joined: Tue Jun 29, 2010 6:46 am

Re: Severe Weather South Central U.S (March 5-7)

#7 Postby WeatherGuesser » Sun Mar 05, 2017 7:25 pm

cycloneye wrote:[tweet


Since I have that service blocked at the modem/router, your posts are all completely blank, several in succession. If there is something we need to know in your posts, it might help to paste the text of the message rather than just a link.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138886
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Severe Weather South Central U.S (March 5-7)

#8 Postby cycloneye » Sun Mar 05, 2017 7:42 pm

WeatherGuesser wrote:
cycloneye wrote:[tweet


Since I have that service blocked at the modem/router, your posts are all completely blank, several in succession. If there is something we need to know in your posts, it might help to paste the text of the message rather than just a link.


I fixed two posts of those twitter ones. Hopefully,you can see the twitter posts soon.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138886
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Severe Weather South Central U.S (March 5-7)

#9 Postby cycloneye » Mon Mar 06, 2017 8:34 am

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0701 AM CST Mon Mar 06 2017

Valid 061300Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE OZARKS
REGION OF MISSOURI...OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE FROM
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS TO CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND WESTERN
ILLINOIS...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
SLIGHT RISK FROM THE ARKLATEX TO NORTHERN/WESTERN MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected starting late this afternoon and
expanding across the upper and middle Mississippi Valley to the
Ozarks and Mid-South. Damaging wind gusts, large hail and a few
tornadoes are possible.

...Synopsis...
The upper-air pattern begins with synoptic-scale troughing from the
AK Panhandle to the northern Rockies, Four Corners and northwestern
MX. A strong/basal shortwave trough now located over UT will phase
with another currently over portions of eastern MT, WY and CO, as
they collectively shift eastward across the central/northern Plains
through the period. By 00z, the northern perturbation should evolve
into a closed 500-mb cyclone over central/eastern ND, with the
combined shortwave trough arching southeastward over the FSD area
then southwestward across western KS. By 12Z, the cyclone should
eject northeastward to northwestern ON near the MB border, with
associated vorticity lobe arching across Lake Superior, eastern WI,
northern MO, and eastern KS. The height trough will extend
southwestward over west TX by that time.

At the surface, the main low was analyzed at 11Z between PIR and
HEI, with a Pacific cold front southward across the NE Sandhills
then southwestward over central NM. An arctic front extended
southwestward over western WY. A dryline was drawn from
east-central SD to west-central KS, the eastern TX Panhandle, the
southeastern corner of NM, and northern Coahuila. By 00Z, the
surface low should deepen to around 978-980 mb and move to near the
northern terminus of I-29 where MB, MN and ND join. The arctic and
Pacific fronts will merge from north to south, with arching
southeastward from the low over MN and northern IA, then
southwestward over eastern KS, northwestern OK and the TX Panhandle,
having overtaken some of the dryline into eastern KS. The dryline
should extend from there south-southwestward across central OK to
the Edwards Plateau of TX. By 12Z, the surface cyclone will be
stacked with its manifestation aloft, and the cold front should
extend from lower MI across IN, southeastern MO, central AR, and
central TX.

....Ozarks, mid/upper Mississippi Valley to Mid South...
Scattered thunderstorms should develop along and ahead of the cold
front late this afternoon between eastern KS and central/western MN,
increasing in coverage and backbuilding southward into eastern OK
this evening, while an initially separate area of convection
develops in a low-level warm-advection/confluence zone from eastern
OK/western AR at least into northern MO. Each will shift eastward
with time, offering the potential for all severe modes.

The CAPE/shear parameter space should become favorable this
afternoon and evening in a narrow, triangular corridor of warm
sector, tapering with northward extend from eastern OK and AR
northward to southern MN and western WI. Surface dew points are
expected to reach the 50s F over the upper Mississippi Valley area,
with 60s from the lower Missouri Valley region southward. This, in
conjunction with diurnal heating, boundary-layer warm advection, and
cooling aloft preceding the shortwave trough, should support MLCAPE
from around 2000 J/kg in the western Ozarks region to around 500
J/kg in north-central MN. Forecast soundings reasonably suggest
that, amidst strengthening deep-layer winds with time, 55-65-kt
effective-shear magnitudes should become common along/ahead of the
cold front, with effective SRH commonly in the 250-400 J/kg range.

Within that corridor, the two regimes discussed above should support
at least a short temporal window of discrete-supercell potential:
1. Along the front for a brief maturation period before the frontal
convection evolves to more of a QLCS configuration, or (on the
northern/MN end) the mean-wind vector is less parallel to the front,
but activity moves quickly across the very narrow warm sector into
more stable air. The steepest lapse rates and largest buoyancy will
be available to this process, with any sustained/discrete cells
offering the most large-hail and tornado risk.
2. The prefrontal warm-advection plume, which will develop near the
eastern rim of the surface-based effective-inflow parcels in weaker
but still sufficient surface-based instability. This activity also
will exit the favorable buoyancy sooner than in the frontal regime.

Collectively, the greatest concentration of severe should be in or
near the enhanced risk, corresponding to the most probable area
affected by both regimes over the longest period of time.

Overnight, as the main band of thunderstorms moves eastward past the
Mississippi Valley, it should overtake the northern part of the
warm-advection band and weaken on the northeastern end; then the
zone of weakening zippers southward with time. This will take place
as the eastern theta-e/CAPE gradient effectively collapses southward
down the Mississippi Valley, on the western fringes of more poorly
modified continental/polar trajectories, and convection outruns
favorable surface-based buoyancy. With the northern warm sector
getting "pinched off" in such a manner late tonight and early
tomorrow morning, the zone of most favorable severe potential will
shift into southeastern OK, southeastern MO, AR, the Arklatex
region, and the Mid South. Damaging wind will become the main
threat with a mostly linear mode, though
embedded/short-lived/small-scale circulations may be capable of a
brief tornado or two.

..Edwards/Peters.. 03/06/2017


Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138886
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Severe Weather South Central U.S (March 5-7)

#10 Postby cycloneye » Mon Mar 06, 2017 8:59 am

Are the members seeing this twitter post? For those who do not see it here is a copy and paste.

Reed Timmer

FORECAST: two regions of greatest threat for supercells this afternoon/evening: 1. NW IA/SW MN, 2. SW MO/NW AR! Models via @AccuWeatherPro

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138886
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Severe Weather South Central U.S (March 5-7)

#11 Postby cycloneye » Mon Mar 06, 2017 12:59 pm

Latest update:



Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1033 AM CST Mon Mar 06 2017

Valid 061630Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MID-MS VALLEY
AND OZARK PLATEAU...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS UPPER MIDWEST TO
EASTERN OK AND AR...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL
STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Numerous severe storms are expected starting late afternoon and
continuing into tonight across the central states. The greatest
concentration of tornadoes, a couple of which may be strong,
damaging winds, and large hail is expected to be across the Ozark
Plateau to the Mid-Mississippi Valley.

...Lower Missouri Valley, Ozark Plateau, Mid-South...
Scattered storms should develop along the dryline late afternoon
centered on eastern KS as mid-level height falls overspread this
boundary downstream of a vigorous northern Great Plains shortwave
trough. Despite a weakness in hodographs near 700 mb, low and
deep-layer shear will be strong. In conjunction with a destabilizing
air mass characterized by a plume of returning Gulf moisture with
lower 60s surface dew points amid steep mid-level lapse rates, the
environment will be quite favorable for supercells. As the cold
front overtakes the dryline, storms will grow upscale this evening.
This should result in a multi-faceted severe risk, all of which
yield probabilistic upgrades this outlook. Large hail and tornadoes,
some of which may be significant, will be the primary risks with any
supercells that can maintain discrete mode immediately ahead of a
probable QLCS. Damaging winds and a few embedded tornadoes should be
the primary hazards with a fast-moving QLCS, supported by very
strong and strengthening mid-level winds, along the northern extent
of moderate instability across Missouri towards the mid-Mississippi
Valley.. With southwest extent towards the Red River, deep-layer
winds will be oriented increasingly parallel to the front, which
should tend to favor a predominant QLCS mode and a more
isolated/less intense severe risk tonight.

...Upper Midwest...
Strong forcing for ascent will overspread this region along the
northern extent of the warm sector, yielding scattered storm
development along the cold front late afternoon. Rather steep
mid-level lapse rates will compensate for comparatively lesser
boundary-layer moisture farther south. Elongated, straight-line
hodographs should support a few supercells, although the degree of
forcing will probably tend to favor upscale growth into one or more
short-line segments. All hazards appear possible with widely
scattered severe reports expected.

..Grams/Cohen.. 03/06/2017

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

EF-5bigj
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 864
Joined: Tue Feb 07, 2012 10:36 pm
Location: Spartanburg,SC

Re: Severe Weather South Central U.S (March 5-7)

#12 Postby EF-5bigj » Mon Mar 06, 2017 2:02 pm

Strong tornadoes?
0 likes   

RL3AO
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 16308
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2007 10:03 pm
Location: NC

Re: Severe Weather South Central U.S (March 5-7)

#13 Postby RL3AO » Mon Mar 06, 2017 2:12 pm

Sitting in eastern Kansas. Going to be in position to catch anything that develops along the dryline before sunset.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138886
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Severe Weather South Central U.S (March 5-7)

#14 Postby cycloneye » Mon Mar 06, 2017 2:57 pm

Mesoscale Discussion 0254
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0148 PM CST Mon Mar 06 2017

Areas affected...east-central into northeastern KS...far
southeastern NE...northwestern into central parts of MO

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

Valid 061948Z - 062145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...A couple of supercells are forecast to develop over
eastern KS during the 22-00 UTC period. An attendant risk for very
large hail (2 inches or greater in diameter) and some tornado
potential will seemingly accompany this activity. Upscale
convective growth will eventually lead to an increased risk for 50+
kt gusts later this evening, along with some lingering tornado
potential, and a decrease in the large-hail threat.

DISCUSSION...Visible-satellite imagery shows a swelling cumulus
field from the eastern half of OK north-northeastward into northeast
KS to the east of a dryline. Surface analysis indicates
temperatures are warming into the mid 70s with dewpoints in the
mid-upper 50s. A strong capping inversion will likely inhibit
convective initiation for a few more hours until the cap locally
erodes over east-central and northeast KS during the 21-23 UTC
period.

Additional surface heating and some slight increase in low-level
moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints in the upper 50s) will yield
moderate buoyancy (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE). Strong effective shear
(60-kt) coupled with the magnitude of buoyancy ---owing in part to a
steep lapse rate profile--- will promote an initial discrete mode
and the likely development of a couple of supercells. Large to very
large hail will probably be the predominant risk but a
window-of-opportunity for a tornado or two may develop during the
1-3 hour period after convective initiation as storms intensify as
hodographs enlarge by early evening (300-450 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH).

Upscale growth is likely to occur this evening ---supported by a
plethora of CAM guidance--- as a 100-kt 500-mb speed max moves
rapidly from the central High Plains into the lower MO Valley by mid
evening. An increasing risk for damaging winds will probably
develop and spread downstream across central and northern portions
of MO later this evening.

..Smith/Grams.. 03/06/2017


Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Bunkertor
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3386
Joined: Tue May 09, 2006 3:48 pm

Re: Severe Weather South Central U.S (March 5-7)

#15 Postby Bunkertor » Mon Mar 06, 2017 4:53 pm

Storms start to pop
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138886
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Severe Weather South Central U.S (March 5-7)

#16 Postby cycloneye » Mon Mar 06, 2017 7:02 pm

SevereStudios @severestudios
6:01 PM CT - Confirmed tornado (purple box) near St. Marys, KS moving NE at 65 mph. Multiple other tornado warnings in the area.

Image

 https://twitter.com/severestudios/status/838902385783279616


0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138886
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Severe Weather South Central U.S (March 5-7)

#17 Postby cycloneye » Mon Mar 06, 2017 7:27 pm

6:23 PM CT - Multiple tornado warnings with this line of storms in northeastern Kansas, including Topeka.

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138886
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Severe Weather South Central U.S (March 5-7)

#18 Postby cycloneye » Mon Mar 06, 2017 7:33 pm

Tornado Warning for Lyon, Osage, Shawnee and Wabaunsee County in KS until 7:00pm CST.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138886
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Severe Weather South Central U.S (March 5-7)

#19 Postby cycloneye » Mon Mar 06, 2017 7:35 pm

Tornado Warning for Jackson, Jefferson, and Shawnee County in KS until 7:00pm CST.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138886
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Severe Weather South Central U.S (March 5-7)

#20 Postby cycloneye » Mon Mar 06, 2017 7:46 pm

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here


Return to “USA & Caribbean Weather”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: ElectricStorm and 41 guests