Severe Weather event East Texas / LA / Miss / Ala / GA - April 2 -3

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/NWSHouston/status/848494326648905728

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/NWSHouston/status/848504496200265730

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/NWSSanAntonio/status/848510424735723520

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/NWSHouston/status/848510395690123264

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/NWStornado/status/848511962711543808

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/NWSHouston/status/848514125802196992

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/JimCantore/status/848513033248927744

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/NWSHouston/status/848516558032957440

[Shoshana]

Last 8 posts... all I see is "loading tweet" ......

[cycloneye]

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0749 AM CDT Sun Apr 02 2017

Valid 021300Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS
TO EXTREME SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...CENTRAL/NORTHERN LOUISIANA...AND
EXTREME WEST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
TEXAS TO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
ENHANCED RISK AREA...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA...FROM THE LOWER TEXAS COAST TO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
A severe thunderstorm cluster will likely affect central/northeast
Texas into southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana today with
widespread damaging winds, a few tornadoes, and large hail.
Tornadic supercells will be possible from east central Texas across
central and northern Louisiana, immediately south of larger
thunderstorm cluster track. The risk for damaging winds and a few
tornadoes will persist overnight across Louisiana and Mississippi.

...A complex, but potentially significant severe-weather episode
with tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail is expected today
through tonight from east Texas into Mississippi...

...MCS path from central Texas to southern Arkansas/northern
Louisiana today...
A closed midlevel low now over northern Mexico will begin the
process of ejecting northeastward toward the Ark-La-Tex in response
to upstream height falls over the Pacific coast and Great Basin.
Preceding the midlevel trough, a large thunderstorm cluster has
persisted overnight near Del Rio, with cold pool formation becoming
more apparent with time with this cluster. Persistent diabatic
heating with the cluster will also lead to mesolow/MCV formation as
the convection moves northeastward today along a slow-moving surface
front, in advance of the ejecting midlevel trough.

Rich low-level moisture (boundary layer dewpoints in the low-mid
70s) beneath a remnant elevated mixed layer plume is contributing to
strong buoyancy (MLCAPE of 2000-3500 J/kg) in the warm sector this
morning across south TX. The warm sector will spread northeastward
in tandem with the MCS, which should eventually develop bowing
characteristics. East-southeast of the MCS, low-level warm
advection on the northeast side of the warm sector will support an
increase in thunderstorm development across east TX through the
morning. The morning warm-advection storms may remain slightly
elevated, though gradual surface warming through midday and strong
low-level and deep-layer vertical shear will favor supercells. The
net result of this complex evolution should be an
intensifying/bowing MCS with merging cells and an increasingly
widespread damaging wind risk, as well as the potential for
tornadoes with embedded circulations through the afternoon/evening.

...Immediately southeast of the MCS track this afternoon/evening
from east Texas to central/northern Louisiana...
Boundary layer destabilization through the day will make
surface-based supercell development more likely from east TX into
central/northern LA, immediately south of the MCS path.
Semi-discrete storms are expected to mature in the warm sector and
potentially interact with the outflow boundary trailing from the MCS
a little farther north. Any sustained supercells, especially along
the I-20 corridor in LA this afternoon/evening, will be capable of
producing strong tornadoes and very large hail.

...Louisiana/Mississippi overnight...
Additional severe storm development is expected by this evening into
tonight from extreme southeast TX into LA, ahead of the surface cold
front. This convection will form in an environment favorable for
supercells, though storm interactions should lead to upscale growth
into another band/line. The more discrete storms, as well as
circulations embedded within the line, will pose a risk for damaging
winds and a few tornadoes overnight into MS, while the convective
band could approach west-central or northwest AL near sunrise.

..Thompson/Cohen.. 04/02/2017

[ronyan]

Wonder why the coast is in slight risk when instability is very high here (heard 4000 J/kg). Lower chance of storms overall?

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/ReedTimmerAccu/status/848517753044684802

[cycloneye]

Closeup view of the Moderate Risk area that was updated at 13z.

[JDawg512]

The line is about to reach the I-35 corridor. Would have liked to have seen more areal coverage of rain like the DFW area but once these intense storms move through, looks like we are done with the rain other than may be a few wrap around showers later on.

[JDawg512]

Tornado warning for northwestern Travis County, southwestern Williamson County. Hope Weatherdude is staying safe.

[cycloneye]

Austin is being hammered. Stay safe.

 https://twitter.com/NWSSanAntonio/status/848548751581081600

[cycloneye]

TORNADO WARNING until 10:30 AM CDT includes Henderson & Cecilia. Radar indicated tornado possible. Be in safe place NOW!

[cycloneye]

Great advice.

@NWSNewOrleans
Conditions can change RAPIDLY on active weather days! Don't get caught on the road or unaware when severe weather threatens. #LAwx #MSwx

[cycloneye]

 @NWSSanAntonio
10:13 am: Severe thunderstorms continue across the Austin metro area.

[cycloneye]

@NWSNewOrleans A severe thunderstorm with large hail is tracking across areas to the northwest of Baton Rouge towards New Roads #LAwx