Severe Weather event East Texas / LA / Miss / Ala / GA - April 2 -3

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cycloneye
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Re: Severe Weather event East Texas / LA / Miss / Ala - April 2 -3 - HIGH Risk - Far East Texas / N LA

#141 Postby cycloneye » Sun Apr 02, 2017 3:12 pm

New updated graphic by SPC. Still High Risk area.

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0259 PM CDT Sun Apr 02 2017

Valid 022000Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN LOUISIANA...

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
LOUISIANA INTO MISSISSIPPI...


...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SABINE
RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TEXAS
COAST ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA...

...SUMMARY...
Widespread severe thunderstorms capable of significant tornadoes,
severe wind, and severe hail will spread from the Sabine river
valley toward the lower Mississippi Valley through tonight. The
greatest risk for tornadoes will exist from across Louisiana into
Mississippi this afternoon through tonight.

...East Texas into Louisiana and western Mississippi...
Storms continue to evolve across the area, with the most intense
cells near the warm front over central LA, and along and just ahead
of the cold front/outflow boundary over far eastern TX. South of
these boundaries, the air mass is very moist and unstable with gusty
southeasterly winds allowing for a gradual northward shift in the
greater instability across LA and into southwest MS. Shear profiles
strongly favor supercells along with tornadoes, with effective SRH
on the order of 400-600 m2/s2 observed on area VAD wind profiles.
The area will continue to experience a severe threat for many more
hours until the cold front moves through from the west. While only a
few of the numerous storms are currently severe, the environment
will remain quite favorable and further intensification of storms is
expected throughout the afternoon and into the evening. For more
information see MCD 403, 404 and 405.

..Jewell.. 04/02/2017

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Sun Apr 02 2017/

...Portions of east Texas to the lower Mississippi Valley through
tonight...
A long-lived thunderstorm cluster that crossed central Texas through
the overnight/morning hours is losing organization as it is
advancing into east Texas. Convection continues to form ahead of the
remnant outflow boundary related to the cluster -- from parts of the
Upper TX Coast through the lower Sabine Valley region within a
warm-advection plume. This plume of warm advection is associated
with an amplifying midlevel shortwave trough, whose accompanying
midlevel speed maximum is emerging over south Texas. As the
shortwave trough continues to advance eastward, the low-level mass
response will facilitate poleward return of rich boundary-layer
moisture -- e.g., 15 g/kg mean mixing ratio per Lake Charles 12Z
observed sounding. As such, an expansive warm sector associated with
MLCAPE around 1500-3000 J/kg will become established through the
afternoon from the western/central Gulf Coast northward to a
precipitation-reinforced warm frontal zone forecast to extend from
part of east-central TX eastward across northern Louisiana.

With open-warm-sector convective development now becoming apparent
ahead of the remnants of the convective cluster, it is expected that
this activity will mature as it interacts with the
northward-advancing warm frontal zone. This is where effective SRH
around 300-400 m2/s2 amid strong deep shear and increasing buoyancy
will exist. Given increasing confidence in semi-discrete
supercells/supercell clusters interacting with this warm frontal
zone around peak heating, confidence has increased in greater
tornado potential -- including significant tornadoes -- across the
now-upgraded High Risk area. The significant-tornado potential will
spread toward the lower Mississippi Valley into the evening hours.

Into the evening and overnight hours tonight, a band of warm
advection/confluence will facilitate the development of a
pre-frontal squall line that will advance eastward across parts of
LA/MS and far southern AR. In addition to the potential for
extensive wind damage, meso-vortices and embedded supercells capable
of producing tornadoes are expected to spread eastward through the
lower Mississippi Valley into the overnight hours. Increased
confidence in this scenario warrants eastward extension of the
Moderate Risk area.


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Re: Severe Weather event East Texas / LA / Miss / Ala - April 2 -3 - HIGH Risk - North LA

#142 Postby cycloneye » Sun Apr 02, 2017 3:21 pm

Another Tornado Watch coming soon.

Image
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Re: Severe Weather event East Texas / LA / Miss / Ala - April 2 -3 - HIGH Risk - North LA

#143 Postby cycloneye » Sun Apr 02, 2017 3:38 pm

Video of damage in SW part of Alexandria.

 https://twitter.com/Jeff_Piotrowski/status/848632015448678400


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Re: Severe Weather event East Texas / LA / Miss / Ala - April 2 -3 - HIGH Risk - North LA

#144 Postby cycloneye » Sun Apr 02, 2017 3:56 pm

@spann
Tornado is likely south of Jena, LA
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Re: Severe Weather event East Texas / LA / Miss / Ala - April 2 -3 - HIGH Risk - North LA

#145 Postby cycloneye » Sun Apr 02, 2017 4:00 pm

@codyyeary
Tornado (potentially strong) approaching Nebo/Jena, LA. (3:57 pm CDT)

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Re: Severe Weather event East Texas / LA / Miss / Ala - April 2 -3 - HIGH Risk - North LA

#146 Postby Bunkertor » Sun Apr 02, 2017 4:05 pm

I found zero coverage. No TV station, no radio, no chaser. Can anyone help out ?
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Re: Severe Weather event East Texas / LA / Miss / Ala - April 2 -3 - HIGH Risk - North LA

#147 Postby cycloneye » Sun Apr 02, 2017 4:06 pm

Bunkertor wrote:I found zero coverage. No TV station, no radio, no chaser. Can anyone help out ?


Agree. No chaers covering this event that was well advertised days ago.
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Re: Severe Weather event East Texas / LA / Miss / Ala - April 2 -3 - HIGH Risk - North LA

#148 Postby Alyono » Sun Apr 02, 2017 4:10 pm

a more appropriate emergency for Jena now
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Re: Severe Weather event East Texas / LA / Miss / Ala - April 2 -3 - HIGH Risk - North LA

#149 Postby Texas Snowman » Sun Apr 02, 2017 4:11 pm

116
WWUS54 KSHV 022107
SVSSHV

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
407 PM CDT SUN APR 2 2017

LAC021-059-022145-
/O.CON.KSHV.TO.W.0048.000000T0000Z-170402T2145Z/
Caldwell LA-La Salle LA-
407 PM CDT SUN APR 2 2017

...TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR THE CITIES OF MIDWAY AND JENA...

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM CDT FOR SOUTHERN
CALDWELL AND NORTHEASTERN LA SALLE PARISHES...

At 406 PM CDT, a confirmed large and destructive tornado was located
near Midway, or 24 miles northwest of Larto, moving northeast at 35
mph.

TORNADO EMERGENCY for the cities of Midway and Jena. This is a
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

HAZARD...Deadly tornado.

SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may
be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes
will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes,
businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction
is possible.

The tornado will be near...
Jena and Midway around 415 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous, and potentially deadly
tornado is on the ground. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move
to an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid
windows. If in a mobile home, a vehicle or outdoors, move to the
closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3172 9201 3166 9204 3159 9211 3163 9226
3193 9212 3192 9201
TIME...MOT...LOC 2106Z 205DEG 31KT 3163 9218

TORNADO...OBSERVED
TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CATASTROPHIC
HAIL...1.75IN
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Re: Severe Weather event East Texas / LA / Miss / Ala - April 2 -3 - HIGH Risk - North LA

#150 Postby Bunkertor » Sun Apr 02, 2017 4:11 pm

TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR THE CITIES OF MIDWAY AND JENA IN LOUISIANA!
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Re: Severe Weather event East Texas / LA / Miss / Ala - April 2 -3 - HIGH Risk - North LA

#151 Postby cycloneye » Sun Apr 02, 2017 4:14 pm

Does anyone knows the population of Jena?
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Re: Severe Weather event East Texas / LA / Miss / Ala - April 2 -3 - HIGH Risk - North LA

#152 Postby cycloneye » Sun Apr 02, 2017 4:16 pm

cycloneye wrote:Does anyone knows the population of Jena?


Found info on Wiki.

As of the census[7] of 2000, there were 2,971 people, 1,135 households, and 749 families residing in the town. The population density was 552.7 people per square mile (213.2/km²). There were 1,264 housing units at an average density of 235.2 per square mile (90.7/km²).
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Re: Severe Weather event East Texas / LA / Miss / Ala - April 2 -3 - HIGH Risk - North LA

#153 Postby RL3AO » Sun Apr 02, 2017 4:19 pm

It probably hit one or both of the neighborhoods labeled Trout and Good Pine.

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Re: Severe Weather event East Texas / LA / Miss / Ala - April 2 -3 - HIGH Risk - North LA

#154 Postby Bunkertor » Sun Apr 02, 2017 4:20 pm

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Re: Severe Weather event East Texas / LA / Miss / Ala - April 2 -3 - HIGH Risk - North LA

#155 Postby cycloneye » Sun Apr 02, 2017 4:20 pm

@ReedTimmer
Confirmed tornado crossing Hwy 84 just west of Jena, LA right now is still moving NNE! making slight left hand turn
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Re: Severe Weather event East Texas / LA / Miss / Ala - April 2 -3 - HIGH Risk - North LA

#156 Postby cycloneye » Sun Apr 02, 2017 4:22 pm

@codyyeary
Summerville Township is smaller, but likely to take a direct hit from a strong tornado
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Re: Severe Weather event East Texas / LA / Miss / Ala - April 2 -3 - HIGH Risk - North LA

#157 Postby cycloneye » Sun Apr 02, 2017 4:36 pm

@NWSShreveport
Severe Thunderstorm Warning continues for Winnfield LA, Jena LA, Colfax LA until 5:30 PM CDT
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Re: Severe Weather event East Texas / LA / Miss / Ala - April 2 -3 - HIGH Risk - North LA

#158 Postby cycloneye » Sun Apr 02, 2017 4:46 pm

@NWSShreveport
Storm Report: Numerous trees down. Car destroyed by tree, and barn blown down 3 E of Grayson.
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Re: Severe Weather event East Texas / LA / Miss / Ala - April 2 -3 - HIGH Risk - North LA

#159 Postby cycloneye » Sun Apr 02, 2017 5:07 pm

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Re: Severe Weather event East Texas / Louisiana / Mississippi / Arkansas - April 2 -3 - Moderate Risk

#160 Postby Shoshana » Sun Apr 02, 2017 6:35 pm

JDawg512 wrote:Tornado warning for northwestern Travis County, southwestern Williamson County. Hope Weatherdude is staying safe.


I was driving up 35 from Austin to Round Rock when I heard the warning. Got to work just as the wind and rain hit. Management was watching the weather getting ready to tell us to get to a safe place. Nothing major happened there.

Then I got a text, 3 sections of fence fell at home...
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