Severe Weather event East Texas / LA / Miss / Ala / GA - April 2 -3

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cycloneye
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Re: Severe Weather event East Texas / Louisiana / Miss / Ark - April 2 -3 - MDT Risk - Tornado Watch includes Houston

#81 Postby cycloneye » Sun Apr 02, 2017 10:39 am

New Tornado watch issued and includes Houston and Shreveport.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 109
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1035 AM CDT Sun Apr 2 2017

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of
Northern and Central Louisiana
East and Southeast Texas

* Effective this Sunday morning and evening from 1035 AM until
600 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
Several tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes likely
Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
to 2.5 inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph possible

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will continue to affect the watch
area this afternoon and evening. The environment is very favorable
for supercells capable of tornadoes in those storms that form in the
warm/humid air.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles
north and south of a line from 20 miles south of Monroe LA to 30
miles west southwest of Huntsville TX. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU9).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

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Re: Severe Weather event East Texas / LA / Miss / Ark - April 2 -3 - MDT Risk - Tornado Watch includes Houston

#82 Postby RL3AO » Sun Apr 02, 2017 10:46 am

Probably the highest tornado probs I can remember that wasn't in a PDS tornado watch.
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Re: Severe Weather event East Texas / LA / Miss / Ark - April 2 -3 - MDT Risk - Tornado Watch includes Houston

#83 Postby cycloneye » Sun Apr 02, 2017 10:54 am

@severestudios A PDS (Particularly Dangerous Situation) Tornado Watch has been issued for portions of Texas and Louisiana. Strong tornadoes psbl.

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Re: Severe Weather event East Texas / LA / Miss / Ark - April 2 -3 - MDT Risk - Tornado Watch includes Houston

#84 Postby Tireman4 » Sun Apr 02, 2017 10:56 am

Tor Con of 8 for parts of Texas and Louisiana
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Re: Severe Weather event East Texas / LA / Miss / Ark - April 2 -3 - MDT Risk - Tornado Watch includes Houston

#85 Postby RL3AO » Sun Apr 02, 2017 10:59 am

cycloneye wrote:@severestudios A PDS (Particularly Dangerous Situation) Tornado Watch has been issued for portions of Texas and Louisiana. Strong tornadoes psbl.

]http://oi66.tinypic.com/125gu3k.jpg[/img]


They're wrong. It wasn't a PDS watch (they've issued a correction). It's just a very high probability tornado watch. (Still significant)
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Re: Severe Weather event East Texas / LA / Miss / Ark - April 2 -3 - MDT Risk - Tornado Watch includes Houston

#86 Postby cycloneye » Sun Apr 02, 2017 11:03 am

RL3AO wrote:
cycloneye wrote:@severestudios A PDS (Particularly Dangerous Situation) Tornado Watch has been issued for portions of Texas and Louisiana. Strong tornadoes psbl.

]http://oi66.tinypic.com/125gu3k.jpg[/img]


They're wrong. It wasn't a PDS watch (they've issued a correction). It's just a very high probability tornado watch. (Still significant)


Yes,Here is the correction.


Again, the latest Tor Watch is NOT a "PDS"... it's apparently at the discretion of the @NWSSPC forecaster. Our apologies for the confusion.
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Re: Severe Weather event East Texas / LA / Miss / Ark - April 2 -3 - MDT Risk - Tornado Watch includes Houston

#87 Postby cycloneye » Sun Apr 02, 2017 11:06 am

Areas in Houston and vicinity that are under a Tornado Watch.

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Re: Severe Weather event East Texas / LA / Miss / Ark - April 2 -3 - MDT Risk - Tornado Watch includes Houston

#88 Postby TheAustinMan » Sun Apr 02, 2017 11:15 am

Area forecast discussion from NWS Shreveport indicates the Storm Prediction Center is set to issue a high risk for severe weather.

027
FXUS64 KSHV 021607
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1107 AM CDT Sun Apr 2 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Tor watch issued for area until 7 pm, basically along and south
of I-20. SPC has also upgraded a portion of this area to high risk
for svr wx as well.
As evident from looking at SHV 12z raob which
was not even indicative of tstms due to lack of instability and
moisture, and current widespread stg/svr storms in area attm, this
event is rapidly unfolding. LCH 12z sounding does show a blend of
stg instability and very high low lvl shear, which has translated
nwd with advancing warm front. Dewpoints have risen into upper
60s south and still upper 50s north. SE winds over gulf sustained
25 kts thus moisture advection will continue. Rain totals already
one to two inches east TX and nw LA with a lot more rainfall come,
likely verifying flash flood watch in effect thru the
overnight./VII/.

&&
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Re: Severe Weather event East Texas / LA / Miss / Ark - April 2 -3 - HIGH Risk - Far East Texas / N LA

#89 Postby cycloneye » Sun Apr 02, 2017 11:37 am

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1127 AM CDT Sun Apr 02 2017

Valid 021630Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
FAR EAST TEXAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA...

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
HIGH ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND EXTREME SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS...


...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
MODERATE FROM PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS TO MISSISSIPPI...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
ENHANCED FROM PORTIONS OF EAST AND SOUTH TEXAS TO FAR WESTERN
ALABAMA...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
SLIGHT FROM EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO WESTERN
ALABAMA...

...SUMMARY...
Widespread severe thunderstorms capable of significant tornadoes,
severe wind, and severe hail will spread across portions of east
Texas to the lower Mississippi Valley through tonight. The greatest
risk for tornadoes will exist from portions of far east Texas
eastward across northern Louisiana this afternoon and evening.

...Portions of east Texas to the lower Mississippi Valley through
tonight...
A long-lived thunderstorm cluster that crossed central Texas through
the overnight/morning hours is losing organization as it is
advancing into east Texas. Convection continues to form ahead of the
remnant outflow boundary related to the cluster -- from parts of the
Upper TX Coast through the lower Sabine Valley region within a
warm-advection plume. This plume of warm advection is associated
with an amplifying midlevel shortwave trough, whose accompanying
midlevel speed maximum is emerging over south Texas. As the
shortwave trough continues to advance eastward, the low-level mass
response will facilitate poleward return of rich boundary-layer
moisture -- e.g., 15 g/kg mean mixing ratio per Lake Charles 12Z
observed sounding. As such, an expansive warm sector associated with
MLCAPE around 1500-3000 J/kg will become established through the
afternoon from the western/central Gulf Coast northward to a
precipitation-reinforced warm frontal zone forecast to extend from
part of east-central TX eastward across northern Louisiana.

With open-warm-sector convective development now becoming apparent
ahead of the remnants of the convective cluster, it is expected that
this activity will mature as it interacts with the
northward-advancing warm frontal zone. This is where effective SRH
around 300-400 m2/s2 amid strong deep shear and increasing buoyancy
will exist. Given increasing confidence in semi-discrete
supercells/supercell clusters interacting with this warm frontal
zone around peak heating, confidence has increased in greater
tornado potential -- including significant tornadoes -- across the
now-upgraded High Risk area. The significant-tornado potential will
spread toward the lower Mississippi Valley into the evening hours.

Into the evening and overnight hours tonight, a band of warm
advection/confluence will facilitate the development of a
pre-frontal squall line that will advance eastward across parts of
LA/MS and far southern AR. In addition to the potential for
extensive wind damage, meso-vortices and embedded supercells capable
of producing tornadoes are expected to spread eastward through the
lower Mississippi Valley into the overnight hours. Increased
confidence in this scenario warrants eastward extension of the
Moderate Risk area.

..Cohen.. 04/02/2017

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Re: Severe Weather event East Texas / LA / Miss / Ark - April 2 -3 - HIGH Risk - Tornado Watch includes Houston

#90 Postby EF-5bigj » Sun Apr 02, 2017 11:43 am

:eek: prayers be with those in the path.
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Re: Severe Weather event East Texas / Louisiana - April 2 - Moderate Risk includes Houston / Galveston

#91 Postby Bunkertor » Sun Apr 02, 2017 11:44 am

cycloneye wrote:00z sounding for Lufkin area looks prime for severe activity.



https://twitter.com/Wxmanms1/status/848370467144691712


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:eek:
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Re: Severe Weather event East Texas / LA / Miss / Ark - April 2 -3 - HIGH Risk - Far East Texas / N LA

#92 Postby cycloneye » Sun Apr 02, 2017 11:49 am

@spann The second "high risk" of 2017



https://twitter.com/spann/status/848577181332754432
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Texas Spring 2017 | HIGH risk for parts of East Texas

#93 Postby Texas Snowman » Sun Apr 02, 2017 11:51 am

@ReedTimmerAccu - Prefrontal convergence lines of supercells taking shape across east Texas. Strong tornado potential later into northern LA @breakingweather
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Re: Severe Weather event East Texas / LA / Miss / Ark - April 2 -3 - MDT Risk - Tornado Watch includes Houston

#94 Postby Bunkertor » Sun Apr 02, 2017 11:54 am

RL3AO wrote:
cycloneye wrote:@severestudios A PDS (Particularly Dangerous Situation) Tornado Watch has been issued for portions of Texas and Louisiana. Strong tornadoes psbl.

]http://oi66.tinypic.com/125gu3k.jpg[/img]


They're wrong. It wasn't a PDS watch (they've issued a correction). It's just a very high probability tornado watch. (Still significant)

I wonder what the difference is between a 90/70 watch and PDS
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Re: Severe Weather event East Texas / LA / Miss / Ark - April 2 -3 - HIGH Risk - Far East Texas / N LA

#95 Postby cycloneye » Sun Apr 02, 2017 12:02 pm

Here is the High Risk area.

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Re: Severe Weather event East Texas / LA / Miss / Ark - April 2 -3 - HIGH Risk - Far East Texas / N LA

#96 Postby Alyono » Sun Apr 02, 2017 12:03 pm

TWC has a TORCON at 8

That means it's time for their reality shows, LMAO
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Re: Severe Weather event East Texas / LA / Miss / Ark - April 2 -3 - HIGH Risk - Far East Texas / N LA

#97 Postby ronyan » Sun Apr 02, 2017 12:06 pm

Alyono wrote:TWC has a TORCON at 8

That means it's time for their reality shows, LMAO


Man I hate that, wish there was an alternative cable channel. Guess I can tune in to the local news sites.
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Re: Severe Weather event East Texas / LA / Miss / Ark - April 2 -3 - HIGH Risk - Far East Texas / N LA

#98 Postby cycloneye » Sun Apr 02, 2017 12:09 pm

I can't believe what TWC is doing as millons of people are dealing with severe weather with a high risk.
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Re: Severe Weather event East Texas / LA / Miss / Ark - April 2 -3 - HIGH Risk - Far East Texas / N LA

#99 Postby EF-5bigj » Sun Apr 02, 2017 12:11 pm

Weather nation is pretty good if you have it.
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Re: Severe Weather event East Texas / LA / Miss / Ark - April 2 -3 - HIGH Risk - Far East Texas / N LA

#100 Postby Bunkertor » Sun Apr 02, 2017 12:28 pm

BTW. The Shell Houston Open are in town
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