Severe weather Apr 5th

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EF-5bigj
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Severe weather Apr 5th

#1 Postby EF-5bigj » Tue Apr 04, 2017 1:01 am

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html Dixie Alley does its thing again....
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Re: Severe weather Apr 5th,2017

#2 Postby cycloneye » Tue Apr 04, 2017 7:42 am

@ReedTimmer
Update: Two regions of greatest tornado potential tomorrow: central/north AL thru north GA, and east-central IL thru central IN down to N KY
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Re: Severe weather Apr 5th,2017

#3 Postby WeatherGuesser » Tue Apr 04, 2017 8:40 am

Moderate now for AL, GA, FL, SC
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Re: Severe weather Apr 5th,2017

#4 Postby Tireman4 » Tue Apr 04, 2017 9:19 am

Forecast Discussion From Peachtree City, GA

111
FXUS62 KFFC 041127
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
727 AM EDT Tue Apr 4 2017



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 331 AM EDT Tue Apr 4 2017/

SHORT TERM /Today through Wednesday/...
Today will be a pretty nice, if warm day. Active weather is expected
late tonight into Wednesday, as a strong system impacts the CWFA.

The CWFA will be in between systems today, with brief high
pressure settling in over the area. However, things begin to
change tonight as yesterday`s frontal boundary begins to move back
north as a warm front. The warm front is expected to continue
moving north to near the I-20 corridor by mid morning Wednesday
with a cold front approaching the western CWFA by late afternoon.
Today will be dry, but convection is expected to develop along and
ahead of the warm front overnight and ahead of the cold front
during Wednesday afternoon.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected with the developing
convection overnight and Wednesday. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will develop along and ahead of the northward moving
warm front overnight, becoming more widespread by daybreak. A brief
break in convective activity south of the warm front is possible,
but storms should fill back in as the cold front nears. This weather
system has the potential to be stronger than Monday`s system...with
the tornado and damaging wind threats a bit higher.

Wednesday`s system will be aided by much stronger dynamics aloft and
more shear. The only parameter to watch would be available moisture.
The airmass south of the warm front will be much more moist with
dewpoints well into the middle 60s and lower 70s. Model soundings
show that PWATS rapidly increase during the afternoon to near an
inch and a half from values below half and inch today. See no reason
why the warm front would get stuck across south GA, as the 15-20kt
BL winds will be sufficient to give it the push northward that it
needs. The only question will be how far the warm front makes it
northward during the day on Wednesday morning. With the warm front
moving north overnight, a non-diurnal trend was needed mainly along
and south of the Interstate 20 corridor.

As stated before, damaging wind gusts will be the primary mode of
severe weather. However, the potential for tornadoes will be higher
than with Monday`s system. Some large hail is also possible, with
moderately steep lapse rates. Also think that the potential for
localized flooding is a bit higher than with Monday`s system. The
CWFA received anywhere from a half an inch of rain to one and a half
inches of rain on Monday. Wednesday`s system does have the potential
for areas to receive more than one bout of rainfall - once with the
warm front and another round with the cold front. Not too confident
right now to pinpoint axis of heavier rainfall, but will continue to
monitor the situation.

NListemaa

LONG TERM /Wednesday Night through Monday/...
The main cold front moves across the area Wednesday night.
Any ongoing Severe Thunderstorms will end with the front passing.

The only concern then will be shower chances over n GA from
wrap-around moisture of the upper level low/trough as it spreads
moisture across the northern counties from late Wednesday night
into Friday. Can not rule out some snow showers mixing in for the
higher elevations from a much colder airmass.

Otherwise dry weather can be expected through the weekend.
A windy day can be expected on Thursday with Gusty W winds of
15 to 25 mph with gusts to around 35 mph.

Forecast Low Temperatures Wednesday night will be getting back close
to normal to about 5 degrees above normal then High temperatures on
Thursday will run 9-13 degrees below normal. Temperatures then
stay below normal until Sunday. Friday and Saturday mornings will be
the coldest with lows in the 30s and 40s.

BDL


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z Update...
Patchy few/sct MVFR clouds hanging around this morning, but they
should dissipate quickly. Only some sct VFR cu expected this
afternoon. Skies may clear for a bit through the late evening
hours. Clouds/chances for precip will begin increasing around 12z
tomorrow morning. Winds may also try to go to the SE side on the
south side of a warm front tomorrow afternoon.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Medium confidence on winds. High confidence remaining elements.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens 81 58 73 51 / 0 10 80 70
Atlanta 80 60 74 49 / 0 20 80 60
Blairsville 75 52 70 44 / 5 10 80 80
Cartersville 80 58 74 48 / 0 10 80 60
Columbus 83 65 80 52 / 5 30 80 60
Gainesville 78 58 70 48 / 0 10 80 80
Macon 83 63 79 52 / 5 30 80 70
Rome 80 56 75 47 / 0 10 80 50
Peachtree City 81 59 76 50 / 0 30 80 60
Vidalia 84 68 83 56 / 10 30 80 60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
AVIATION...
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Re: Severe weather Apr 5th,2017

#5 Postby cycloneye » Tue Apr 04, 2017 12:17 pm

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Re: Severe weather Apr 5th,2017

#6 Postby cycloneye » Tue Apr 04, 2017 12:42 pm

Larger Moderate Risk area at latest update.

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Tue Apr 04 2017

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
AL/GA/SC AND THE FL PANHANDLE...


...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OH/TN VALLEYS TO THE SOUTHEAST...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OH VALLEY
TO THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
SLIGHT RISK...

...SUMMARY...
An outbreak of severe thunderstorms is likely Wednesday across much
of the Southeast, continuing northward along and west of the
Appalachians into the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys. This will include
supercell development with a risk for tornadoes, some of which will
be strong and long-lived, particularly across the Southeast. Large
to very large hail and damaging straight-line winds also appear
likely.

...Synopsis...
A highly amplified mid/upper-level trough will be present across the
Plains at the beginning of the period, moving eastward to the MS
Valley by Wednesday evening, and continuing to the OH/TN Valleys and
Southeast by early Thursday morning. Two 100+ kt upper-level jets
will be present across areas of severe potential Wednesday, one
associated with the eastward-moving trough over LA/MS/AL/TN, and
another 90-100+ kt sub-tropical jet nosing over southeastern AL, the
FL Panhandle, and GA through Wednesday evening. Strong 50-80+ kt
mid-level southwesterly winds will overspread much of the OH/TN
Valleys and Southeast through the peak of the diurnal heating cycle,
and these winds will then overspread much of the East Coast
Wednesday evening through the end of the period.

A strong southwesterly low-level jet is expected to advect rich Gulf
moisture northward across portions of MS/AL/GA by Wednesday morning.
This jet will shift eastward across GA/SC/NC/VA through the
afternoon and early evening before strengthening further late
Wednesday into early Thursday morning across the Mid-Atlantic. A
somewhat separate corridor of strong southerly/southwesterly
low-level winds will be associated with the mid/upper-level trough,
and will overspread much of the OH/TN Valleys through the period. At
the surface, an area of low pressure initially over southeastern MO
will develop northeastward to IL/IN by Wednesday evening while
deepening. This low will then slowly continue northeastward to the
vicinity of the eastern Great Lakes by the end of the period. An
attendant cold front will move eastward across the OH/TN Valleys and
Southeast Wednesday, reaching the Mid-Atlantic by the end of the
period.

...Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic...
Warm air advection/LLJ related convection should form along the
northward-moving warm front early Wednesday morning across parts of
eastern MS, AL, and perhaps GA. This initial activity will pose a
threat for all severe hazards, including tornadoes along/south of
the front where surface-based convection will be more likely.
Additional supercell development appears likely within the broad
warm sector across the central Gulf Coast States, particularly
across AL into GA/SC Wednesday morning/afternoon as large-scale
ascent associated with the upper trough begins to overspread the
Southeast. Forecast soundings across this region suggest strong
tornadoes will be possible with any discrete storm that can form in
this environment, in addition to very large hail and damaging
straight-line winds. Severe probabilities have been
increased/expanded westward slightly in western AL/eastern MS with
latest model guidance showing convective development both Wednesday
morning and another round associated with the large-scale forcing
for ascent with the upper trough Wednesday afternoon ahead of the
cold front.

As the convection that develops Wednesday morning/afternoon moves
across the Carolinas in the evening, a nocturnal increase in
instability and resulting severe potential are possible across parts
of the Carolinas into southeastern VA. This would occur in tandem
with increasing low-level winds associated with a previously
mentioned low-level jet, and strengthening mid/upper-level winds
attendant to the approaching upper trough. If convection can become
surface based in this region, then all severe hazards may occur,
including a threat for tornadoes. Have accordingly
expanded/increased severe probabilities across the Carolinas and
southern/southeastern VA to account for this threat late Wednesday
night into early Thursday morning.

...OH/TN Valleys...
The northward advance of low-level moisture will be more limited
across the OH/TN Valleys Wednesday, but will still be more than
sufficient to support surface-based convection. A band of supercells
appear likely per latest model guidance given the strength of low
and mid-level winds coupled with weak to locally moderate
instability. Large to very large hail and damaging winds appear to
be the main threats, with a few tornadoes also possible. Given the
forecast coverage of convection, it is not out of the question that
higher severe probabilities may need to be considered in a later
outlook update.

..Gleason.. 04/04/2017


Image
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Re: Severe weather Apr 5th - Moderate Risk for parts of Alabama / Georgia / South Carolina / Fla Pannhandle

#7 Postby EF-5bigj » Tue Apr 04, 2017 12:54 pm

NWS Birmingham mentioning destructive tornadoes http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1
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Re: Severe weather Apr 5th - Moderate Risk for parts of Alabama / Georgia / South Carolina / Fla Pannhandle

#8 Postby cycloneye » Tue Apr 04, 2017 1:24 pm

Big cities are in the zone of Moderate Risk. Among them are Birmingham,Montgomery,Atlanta,Macon,Augusta,Columbia.

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Re: Severe weather Apr 5th - Moderate Risk for parts of Alabama / Georgia / South Carolina / Fla Pannhandle

#9 Postby bella_may » Tue Apr 04, 2017 2:03 pm

Hi guys, I live just northwest of mobile close to the state line. Am I in the clear? I noticed the moved the threat a little further west
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Re: Severe weather Apr 5th - Moderate Risk for parts of Alabama / Georgia / South Carolina / Fla Pannhandle

#10 Postby cycloneye » Tue Apr 04, 2017 2:16 pm

bella_may wrote:Hi guys, I live just northwest of mobile close to the state line. Am I in the clear? I noticed the moved the threat a little further west


Hi. Mobile is in the edge of the Moderate Risk zone and that means watch the sky there for some inclement weather.Stay safe.
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Re: Severe weather Apr 5th - Moderate Risk for parts of Alabama / Georgia / South Carolina / Fla Pannhandle

#11 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Tue Apr 04, 2017 2:43 pm

Stay Safe Everyone- Moderate Risk is something to take very seriously. Have your NOAA Weather Radios working and a way of receiving immeadiate SVR weather alerts.
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Re: Severe weather Apr 5th - Moderate Risk for parts of Alabama / Georgia / South Carolina / Fla Pannhandle

#12 Postby WeatherGuesser » Tue Apr 04, 2017 2:55 pm

bella_may wrote:Hi guys, I live just northwest of mobile close to the state line. Am I in the clear? I noticed the moved the threat a little further west



Current graphic for Wednesday from NWS Mobile:

http://www.weather.gov/images/mob/graphicast/image2.png
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Re: Severe weather Apr 5th - Moderate Risk for parts of Alabama / Georgia / South Carolina / Fla Pannhandle

#13 Postby EF-5bigj » Tue Apr 04, 2017 4:45 pm

NAM is showing multiple supercells across AL,GA and even in Indiana.
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Re: Severe weather Apr 5th - Moderate Risk for parts of Alabama / Georgia / South Carolina / Fla Pannhandle

#14 Postby Alyono » Tue Apr 04, 2017 5:57 pm

the NAM looks like 8/27/11 with the morning storms (albeit with supercells instead of a QLCS) and then the big show in the afternoon
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Re: Severe weather Apr 5th - Moderate Risk for parts of Alabama / Georgia / South Carolina / Fla Pannhandle

#15 Postby RL3AO » Tue Apr 04, 2017 7:02 pm

I'm assuming you meant 4/27/11? ^^^^
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Re: Severe weather Apr 5th - Moderate Risk for parts of Alabama / Georgia / South Carolina / Fla Pannhandle

#16 Postby RL3AO » Tue Apr 04, 2017 7:06 pm

Tomorrow looks very impressive. Wouldn't be surprised to see a high risk eventually. I'm not sure about the April 27th comparisons but it looks like a serious severe weather threat tomorrow.
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Re: Severe weather Apr 5th - Moderate Risk for parts of Alabama / Georgia / South Carolina / Fla Pannhandle

#17 Postby Tireman4 » Tue Apr 04, 2017 7:25 pm

Just received a message from Faulkner University waning of a potential for severe weather. They are in Montgomery, Alabama
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Re: Severe weather Apr 5th - Moderate Risk for parts of Alabama / Georgia / South Carolina / Fla Pannhandle

#18 Postby EF-5bigj » Tue Apr 04, 2017 8:26 pm

I went through 4/27/11 I don't like the comparisons not saying it won't be bad but that was a very rare event. Still be Weather aware folks :)
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Re: Severe weather Apr 5th - Moderate Risk for parts of Alabama / Georgia / South Carolina / Fla Pannhandle

#19 Postby RL3AO » Tue Apr 04, 2017 9:44 pm

Pretty good weather discussion video from Victor Gensini from College of DuPage.

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_ ... d=30824020

First 20 minutes is very basic and then he starts a well-organized sophomore/junior level weather discussion.
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Re: Severe weather Apr 5th - Moderate Risk for parts of Alabama / Georgia / South Carolina / Fla Pannhandle

#20 Postby EF-5bigj » Tue Apr 04, 2017 9:56 pm

Ahhh I now understand the probabilities more :D
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