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Re: Severe weather Apr 5th - HIGH RISK for parts of Georgia/South Carolina
Posted: Wed Apr 05, 2017 5:38 pm
by cycloneye
Re: Severe weather Apr 5th - HIGH RISK for parts of Georgia/South Carolina
Posted: Wed Apr 05, 2017 5:46 pm
by EF-5bigj
Well that was a bust...but the next one might not be...
Re: Severe weather Apr 5th - HIGH RISK for parts of Georgia/South Carolina
Posted: Wed Apr 05, 2017 7:19 pm
by psyclone
Not only have we had 3 YTD high risks that were big underperformers but we've had a number of PDS TOR watches that were dogs as well. While that's better than the alternative for people in harm's way...the SPC needs to play their cards more carefully going forward. We've seen too much of this lately and you'd think with marginal/slight/enhanced/moderate/high you'd pull the trigger less frequently on the max scale as compared to the old slight/moderate/high.
Re: Severe weather Apr 5th - HIGH RISK for parts of Georgia/South Carolina
Posted: Wed Apr 05, 2017 7:42 pm
by EF-5bigj
Atmosphere got rained out in the Carolinas upper state.
Re: Severe weather Apr 5th - HIGH RISK for parts of Georgia/South Carolina
Posted: Wed Apr 05, 2017 7:46 pm
by Hurricaneman
The problem is if you cry wolf too many times, the wolf gets you because nobody believes you, it probably would have made more sense to go with moderate risk
Re: Severe weather Apr 5th - HIGH RISK for parts of Georgia/South Carolina
Posted: Wed Apr 05, 2017 7:51 pm
by RL3AO
Yeah. Tough forecast. Throw in a little more low level shear and helicity and it could have been a bigger day.
Re: Severe weather Apr 5th - HIGH RISK for parts of Georgia/South Carolina
Posted: Wed Apr 05, 2017 7:52 pm
by EF-5bigj
Not that there weren't significant tornadoes but it wasn't a mass outbreak of tornadoes.
Re: Severe weather Apr 5th
Posted: Wed Apr 05, 2017 8:40 pm
by Alyono
was clear this morning this was not going to be an outbreak.
The high should have been a moderate and the moderate an enhanced. A downgrade not an upgrade was in order
Far too much modelology was used today. The models were off due to the awful initialization of the morning round. If the models have nothing when there is a large area of showers and storms, the atmosphere is going to be totally different than what the models are showing