Texas Summer 2017

[weatherdude1108]

Wish you guys in north Texas could share more rain with us in south and central Texas.

The complex fizzled out as it neared SA and Austin

Yep. I'm already pissed off by this non event.

Hang in there, Amigo. Looks like a weak surface trough attempts to organize sometime Monday near Brownsville. There are at least 2 upper level vorts that look to cross Texas through Tuesday before we begin to shift the daytime isolated summertime pop up seabreeze storms to the Coastal tier of Counties on Wednesday and beyond.

It looked threatening here around 8am. Got really dark and windy as front moved in. It started raining some. Not enough to measure anything. Then got stable the rest of the day, dry as a bone. Thankful I had already set the sprinklers to run this morning. I did that based on my own NON Event history.

[gboudx]

It feels amazing out and there's even a cool breeze!!!

Our downstairs A/C went out late Friday night. If there was ever a day to have to wait for service it was Saturday. Never got uncomfortable even having to wait until the afternoon when the rain ended. We got about 2.5" Friday night into Saturday.

[Texas Snowman]

As Ntxw mentioned yesterday...

@NWSFortWorth -- DFW's 3.84" currently breaks the record for the date (prev 1.76" 1917) AND sets highest daily total ever in June (3.31" 6/15/1935). #dfwwx

@NWSFortWorth -- To put DFW's rainfall today in perspective, the 3.84" supercedes the normal June average rainfall total of 3.79". #dfwwx

[JDawg512]

It's not looking good for widespread decent rain. Some of us will get lucky, many of us will not see much of anything. The window of opportunity is closing by late week and it's back to the grind.

[Portastorm]

It's not looking good for widespread decent rain. Some of us will get lucky, many of us will not see much of anything. The window of opportunity is closing by late week and it's back to the grind.

Yep. This was another day where the models and NWS over-forecasted POPs. Roughly 20-30% of Travis County saw some showers today but the bulk of us did not. Williamson County appeared to have a good soaking though. But they got the rain, and we got the shaft. Again.

I'm afraid this may be a brutal summer for us.

[Texas Snowman]

Perhaps.

But look at it this way. Even if that were to be the case, after this upcoming week, we're already 1/3 of the way through meteorological summer!

[weatherdude1108]

It's not looking good for widespread decent rain. Some of us will get lucky, many of us will not see much of anything. The window of opportunity is closing by late week and it's back to the grind.

Yep. This was another day where the models and NWS over-forecasted POPs. Roughly 20-30% of Travis County saw some showers today but the bulk of us did not. Williamson County appeared to have a good soaking though. But they got the rain, and we got the shaft. Again.

I'm afraid this may be a brutal summer for us.

We got about a quarter inch this afternoon. EWX said there was an ENE flow, keeping pops at bay. I'm disappointed.

[South Texas Storms]

It's not looking good for widespread decent rain. Some of us will get lucky, many of us will not see much of anything. The window of opportunity is closing by late week and it's back to the grind.

Yep. This was another day where the models and NWS over-forecasted POPs. Roughly 20-30% of Travis County saw some showers today but the bulk of us did not. Williamson County appeared to have a good soaking though. But they got the rain, and we got the shaft. Again.

I'm afraid this may be a brutal summer for us.

Yeah we have 2 more decent chances for rain tomorrow and Tuesday. If we don't get any by Wednesday, we're in trouble. Looks like we go back into the completely dry pattern by late week. Come on rain!

[Ntxw]

Still hopeful Dora will sling some moisture up this way. She should be a hurricane by tomorrow, no re-curve but again maybe sneaky mid or upper moisture?

[weatherdude1108]

Still hopeful Dora will sling some moisture up this way. She should be a hurricane by tomorrow, no re-curve but again maybe sneaky mid or upper moisture?

That's a beautiful satellite picture! So clear! I hope it sling shots some moisture this way!

[weatherdude1108]

Holding out some hope.


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1008 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

.UPDATE...
Showers and thunderstorms have generally dissipated across the area
aside from some light stratiform rain over portions of Lee and
Fayette Counties that should dissipate over the next hour. Hi-res
models are generally in good agreement that additional convection
will not develop until possibly very late in the overnight hours
just before sunrise as some streamer showers and possibly a rogue
thunderstorm develops. Thus, we have removed rain chances over the
Rio Grande Plains for most of tonight and decreased to 20-30 POPs
elsewhere, only mentioning very isolated thunderstorms in the Coastal
Plains prior to 4 am. We have included 40 POPS for scattered shower
activity across most of the CWA from 4-10 am just in case remnant
outflow boundaries with nearly moist adiabatic lapse rates allow for
some early development, but only very isolated thunderstorms are
expected due to stability near the melting level.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected across most of the
region by late tomorrow morning into the afternoon hours, with the
best chances for storm initiation in the Coastal Plains along outflow
boundaries and a possible sea breeze. Convection should also develop
over the Edwards Plateau and western Hill Country counties along an
outflow boundary expected to be near or northwest of our northwest-
most counties associated with a complex of storms expected to move
southeast tonight from the Texas panhandle. Depending on how far
southeast this activity makes it tonight, rain chances may need to be
increased later tomorrow afternoon and evening over much of the CWA
as additional shortwave forcing may help expand the coverage of
showers and thunderstorms along this particular outflow boundary.

[Brent]

I hope Dora sends something because I just about dozed off looking at the GFS meteogram lol

Euro does have a little rain on Saturday.

[JDawg512]

Finally some rain just before 1:30 a.m. nothing major but it's a nice steady rain. I have my bedroom window open listening to it. Love the sound of rain falling.

[Portastorm]

Finally some rain just before 1:30 a.m. nothing major but it's a nice steady rain. I have my bedroom window open listening to it. Love the sound of rain falling.

What a pleasant surprise! Those overnight showers dropped like a 1/2" on the PWC. Those kinda came out of nowhere.

[South Texas Storms]

Finally some rain just before 1:30 a.m. nothing major but it's a nice steady rain. I have my bedroom window open listening to it. Love the sound of rain falling.

What a pleasant surprise! Those overnight showers dropped like a 1/2" on the PWC. Those kinda came out of nowhere.

Lucky! Hopefully much of south central Texas can get more widespread activity later today. Some models are showing that the MCV from the dying MCS across west Texas will move into our area this afternoon possibly helping additional showers and storms to develop.

[weatherdude1108]

Finally some rain just before 1:30 a.m. nothing major but it's a nice steady rain. I have my bedroom window open listening to it. Love the sound of rain falling.

What a pleasant surprise! Those overnight showers dropped like a 1/2" on the PWC. Those kinda came out of nowhere.

Lucky! Hopefully much of south central Texas can get more widespread activity later today. Some models are showing that the MCV from the dying MCS across west Texas will move into our area this afternoon possibly helping additional showers and storms to develop.

We weren't as lucky in the Cedar Park area. It sprinkled a little early this morning, but cool about you all in Travis County! That's more than the 0.24 I got yesterday. Here is hoping for more beneficial showers before the faucet shuts off! Any hope of moisture from Dora? Doesn't seem promising from the NHC forecast.

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 260844
TCDEP4

Hurricane Dora Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042017
400 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

Dora has continued to intensify overnight with a well-defined eye on
microwave data and occasional hints of an eye on conventional
satellite imagery. The cloud pattern has also become more symmetric
than 6 hours ago, with outflow expanding in all quadrants. Satellite
estimates supported an intensity of 65 kt at 0600 UTC, but with the
improving satellite presentation since that time, the initial wind
speed is set to 70 kt. Dora has about 12-24 hours to further
strengthen before a combination of cooling SSTs and a more
dry and stable environment likely causes the hurricane to start to
decay. Interestingly, the models are in poor agreement on the
weakening rate of Dora, with the regional hurricane models showing
the cyclone losing strength much faster than the statistical aids.
Since the shear is expected to remain low, which would normally
inhibit dry air intrusions, the NHC forecast is a little higher than
the model consensus, closer to the SHIPS/LGEM solutions and the
previous NHC forecast. Given the spread in the guidance, this is a
low confidence forecast.

Dora is moving west-northwestward or 295/11 kt. A strong mid-level
ridge to the north of Dora is expected to steer the tropical
cyclone west-northwestward over the next couple of days. Dora
should turn westward in about 3 days as it loses deep convection and
becomes a more shallow low. Models have shifted a bit southward
since the previous advisory, and the official NHC track forecast
follows suit. The global models also show Dora weakening into a
trough by day 5, and this is reflected in the dissipation forecast
for that time.

Although Dora is forecast to remain offshore, the outer bands of the
tropical cyclone could bring locally heavy rainfall to portions of
coastal southwestern Mexico through this evening.

[Ntxw]

Spotty showers have popped across DFW. Get under one and its a pretty good burst of rain and feels cool.

[Ntxw]

In other news, Ensembles and OP are beginning to support a broad heat ridge in the middle of the nation July 4th week (next week) with the Sonoran and Bermuda ridge teaming up. I would start settling on a longer duration heat wave than we have seen so far this year. Typical dog days of summer likely to start July

[weatherdude1108]

In other news, Ensembles and OP are beginning to support a broad heat ridge in the middle of the nation July 4th week (next week) with the Sonoran and Bermuda ridge teaming up. I would start settling on a longer duration heat wave than we have seen so far this year. Typical dog days of summer likely to start July

[Brent]

In other news, Ensembles and OP are beginning to support a broad heat ridge in the middle of the nation July 4th week (next week) with the Sonoran and Bermuda ridge teaming up. I would start settling on a longer duration heat wave than we have seen so far this year. Typical dog days of summer likely to start July

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