Texas Summer 2017

[Portastorm]

It still looks hotter next week than this week. Caveat is 500mb heights aren't as high as they were looking from long range. It looks to bridge above us in the high plains where hottest will be. Seems the weakness over Texas (wet grounds? Green?) Is not letting ridges get a grip. Also will provide better opportunities for afternoon thunderstorms for a lucky few.

Maybe on the edge of it too. #RingofFire

Ah the "Ring of Fire" ... one of my favorite weather terms. No fun being in the ring though.

Seems like the longer range parts of the Euro and GFS ensembles suggest at least the bottom of half of Texas will not be under the strong ridging progged to develop across the middle of the country. Perhaps we can remain open to influences from the Gulf and get some sporadic rainfall. But we are getting to the time climalogically where the spigot turns off, and the blast furnace turns on.

[weatherdude1108]

Time for a SIESTA.

[JDawg512]

I'm glad it rained when it did, but the soil moisture and rejuvenated plant growth will not last for more than a week. Within 2 weeks most flora will slow or shut down and the top 6 inches of soil will be dry. By the 3rd week of July, if we don't see significant rain, deep soil moisture will be depleted.

There doesn't look like there is much hope long range for July and yes it is the driest month of the year for Austin as weatherdude1108 alluded to so I'm not expecting much to happen.

[Brent]

GFS now has zero rain at DFW this weekend after having 2 inches last night...

and only has a few hundredths the entire run. Also hits 100 next weekend.

Time for a hiatus from this thread it appears.

[Portastorm]

I'm glad it rained when it did, but the soil moisture and rejuvenated plant growth will not last for more than a week. Within 2 weeks most flora will slow or shut down and the top 6 inches of soil will be dry. By the 3rd week of July, if we don't see significant rain, deep soil moisture will be depleted.

There doesn't look like there is much hope long range for July and yes it is the driest month of the year for Austin as weatherdude1108 alluded to so I'm not expecting much to happen.

I was wondering about that. For example, I received close to 3" of rain in 24 hours earlier this week. Took the dogs on my usual walk through a wooded trail with a dry creek bed. That creek bed will fill with water usually when we receive those kind of amounts. But the next day it was dry ... no sitting or flowing water. I figured the top levels of the soil must be relatively dry.

[bubba hotep]

GFS now has zero rain at DFW this weekend after having 2 inches last night...

and only has a few hundredths the entire run. Also hits 100 next weekend.

Time for a hiatus from this thread it appears.

3k NAM has been pretty aggressive with totals but has been jumpy with location. I was out of town and didn't pay too much attention to the last two events but it seems like they both over performed, maybe that will happen again.

[weatherdude1108]

GFS now has zero rain at DFW this weekend after having 2 inches last night...

and only has a few hundredths the entire run. Also hits 100 next weekend.

Time for a hiatus from this thread it appears.

3k NAM has been pretty aggressive with totals but has been jumpy with location. I was out of town and didn't pay too much attention to the last two events but it seems like they both over performed, maybe that will happen again.

I would guess the next QPF event will overperform based on recent real-world events and July climatology, unless we get a tropical system in the mix. Then all bets are off.

[weatherdude1108]

I'm glad it rained when it did, but the soil moisture and rejuvenated plant growth will not last for more than a week. Within 2 weeks most flora will slow or shut down and the top 6 inches of soil will be dry. By the 3rd week of July, if we don't see significant rain, deep soil moisture will be depleted.

There doesn't look like there is much hope long range for July and yes it is the driest month of the year for Austin as weatherdude1108 alluded to so I'm not expecting much to happen.

I was wondering about that. For example, I received close to 3" of rain in 24 hours earlier this week. Took the dogs on my usual walk through a wooded trail with a dry creek bed. That creek bed will fill with water usually when we receive those kind of amounts. But the next day it was dry ... no sitting or flowing water. I figured the top levels of the soil must be relatively dry.

Well, I am sure that the 0.25" that my soil got this past week is going to evaporate within the next 24 hours.

[Brent]

GFS now has zero rain at DFW this weekend after having 2 inches last night...

and only has a few hundredths the entire run. Also hits 100 next weekend.

Time for a hiatus from this thread it appears.

3k NAM has been pretty aggressive with totals but has been jumpy with location. I was out of town and didn't pay too much attention to the last two events but it seems like they both over performed, maybe that will happen again.

That is true, pretty much everything in June overperformed. DFW is at 5th wettest right now apparently(any rain Saturday will probably be in July)

The model on the news I saw also had a line moving into DFW after midnight.

[bubba hotep]

GFS now has zero rain at DFW this weekend after having 2 inches last night...

and only has a few hundredths the entire run. Also hits 100 next weekend.

Time for a hiatus from this thread it appears.

3k NAM has been pretty aggressive with totals but has been jumpy with location. I was out of town and didn't pay too much attention to the last two events but it seems like they both over performed, maybe that will happen again.

That is true, pretty much everything in June overperformed. DFW is at 5th wettest right now apparently(any rain Saturday will probably be in July)

The model on the news I saw also had a line moving into DFW after midnight.

That sounds kind of like the 12z Texas Tech run.

[bubba hotep]

HRRR is doing some funny stuff tomorrow, it lays down a pretty subtle boundary across DFW near the end of the run with a more robust outflow boundary approaching the Red River. It will be interesting to see how that plays out.

[Brent]

GFS now on a very unsettled pattern around next weekend a lot of rain lol

[Ntxw]

GFS now on a very unsettled pattern around next weekend a lot of rain lol

It develops a cutoff upper trough that meanders around Texas backpedaling with the ridge centered in the mountain west. Euro says no, broad ridge and warmer

[gpsnowman]

About to take my annual jaunt to beautiful Caddo Lake in east Texas for the 4th. Always hot and humid with at most one day with rain it seems. According to my AccuWeather app, the sprawling metropolis of Uncertain Texas could have rain on Saturday with a dry 4th. Looks like the lake fireworks show will go on as planned. Happy 4th of July to all in case I do not post again.

[South Texas Storms]

GFS now on a very unsettled pattern around next weekend a lot of rain lol

It develops a cutoff upper trough that meanders around Texas backpedaling with the ridge centered in the mountain west. Euro says no, broad ridge and warmer

GFS Parallel also shows no rain. I doubt we're going to see any significant rainfall across much of Texas over the next few weeks at least.

Latest Euro Weeklies agree.

[weatherdude1108]

GFS now on a very unsettled pattern around next weekend a lot of rain lol

It develops a cutoff upper trough that meanders around Texas backpedaling with the ridge centered in the mountain west. Euro says no, broad ridge and warmer

GFS Parallel also shows no rain. I doubt we're going to see any significant rainfall across much of Texas over the next few weeks at least.

Latest Euro Weeklies agree.

Was hoping you would say significant rain is in the long range. But, we have to expect the inevitable this time of year in Texas.

[South Texas Storms]

Believe me...I really wish it was looking more promising in the long range.

Looking towards the end of the run, it shows the pattern becoming more active towards late July and August. I hope we don't have to wait that long.

[NDG]

Some nice Saharan Dust will be visiting coastal TX and LA starting tomorrow into the weekend.

[bubba hotep]

00z 3k NAM is pretty good for everyone north of 20 and west of 30. I'm not buying the 18z GFS either but I would expect models to continue to struggle in the medium and long range. There are some signs that the persistent la nina like atmospheric background state is about to finally break down and the models will probably struggle with that. The latest Euro Weekly control run is very wet looking.

[starsfan65]

HRRR is doing some funny stuff tomorrow, it lays down a pretty subtle boundary across DFW near the end of the run with a more robust outflow boundary approaching the Red River. It will be interesting to see how that plays out.

When is this going to happen?