Texas Summer 2017

[Cpv17]

It's too early to know for sure where it's going. Once we get a closed low we'll have a better idea of where this is headed. Me personally, I think anywhere between Tampico and Corpus Christi stands the best chance of landfall.

[Ntxw]

I'm not putting a lot of stock north of I-10 for relief from the tropics. Upper ridge broad scale is already impressive with some intense heat in the SW and Texas. If this were July and August we'd be 105+. Heat is going to be pretty easy to come by this summer imo.

Hottest temp in the state currently is Pecos at 109. 98 in KAUS, 96 DFW, and 94 IAH currently

[Brent]

Yeah amazing how things flipped... I'm pretty much expecting a long summer at this point...

[South Texas Storms]

I still feel like a track towards the western Gulf is most likely...hopefully we can get some more clarity from the models this weekend.

Think there is a pretty high chance of development into a depression or tropical storm, with a quite low chance of it reaching hurricane strength.

Areas along and south of IH-10 probably have the greatest chance of getting some rain from it.

[weatherdude1108]

This is not Texas weather, but I was browsing the SPC site, and in their 4-8 day discussion, they mentioned partial evapotranspiration in the western cornbelt. Thought that was cool how that can effect storms on such a large scale.

Forecast Discussion

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 170900
SPC AC 170900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0400 AM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

Valid 201200Z - 251200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A mid- to upper-level trough is forecast over much of the eastern
U.S. on Tuesday (Day 4) with a stout/persistent mid-level
anticyclone over the Desert Southwest. Strong to locally severe
thunderstorms appear possible near a front over portions of the
Carolinas and Georgia. The potential for intense/severe
thunderstorms will focus over the Midwest during the middle to
latter half of the work week as a rejuvenated elevated mixed layer
overspreads the central Plains downstream of a 500-mb speed maximum
forecast to move from the Northern Rockies into the Upper Midwest.
The potential exists for a very unstable to extremely unstable
boundary layer to develop over the western portions of the Corn Belt
due to very rich low-level moisture (partial evapotranspiration from
vigorous crop growth). The most recent medium-range deterministic
models and their time-lagged versions show a northwest-southeast
warm frontal zone. Clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are
possible within this corridor. Will defer the introduction of an
area over the western part of the Midwest on Wednesday (Day 5) and
additional possible areas later in the extended period due to model
predictability.

..Smith.. 06/17/2017

[weatherdude1108]

Tiny rain possibilities. EWX also references subsidence and the ideal gas law. I guess they need something to talk about with this boring, hot weather.


000
FXUS64 KEWX 171147
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
647 AM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017/

SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday)...
Low-level nocturnal stratus is in the midst of developing across the
eastern half of the area this morning. Should see these dissipate
late this morning leaving behind mostly sunny skies. The main
forecast problem in the short-term is going to be the temperature
forecast for today and whether or not our other climate sites besides
Del Rio hit the magical 37.78 degrees Celsius or better known as
100F. Model guidance is warmer than yesterday at the surface and
deterministic models are progging 850 temps to warm by 3-4C versus
yesterday. This is quite a jump in 24 hours with just southerly flow
at 850 mb. So the question is: why are the models showing this
temperature increase? Forecast soundings show the mixed layer
extending above 850 mb so the increase in 850 temps could be
partially blamed on higher surface temperatures, but the soundings
also show substantial warming at 800 mb which is above the mixed
layer.

At 500 mb there is a weak disturbance moving from north to south to
the south of us that was actually in our area today. It was just too
dry and capped to bring any rain chances. The center of the 500 mb
high is well to our west and is actually expected to weaken today as
an upper trough moves into the NW CONUS. One does not normally expect
a weakening ridge to the west to equate to warming surface
temperatures. However, the reason models are hitting on warmer
temperatures today is all due to that exiting shortwave to our south.
500 mb winds today behind this feature will transition from a NNW
direction to a NNE direction which favors subsidence. The sinking
motions in the atmosphere can easily be seen on a 700 mb omega plot.
To compare, omega values yesterday afternoon were near zero and
actually positive in some places which represents rising air. Today,
we should see -2 to -5 mb/s motions which represents strong
subsidence and sinking air.

So how does subsidence lead to warming temperatures? As air sinks,
the pressure increases and the ideal gas law tells us that within
constant volume, if pressure increases temperature has to as well.
This explains why we are expecting the jump in temperatures today.
With higher temperatures, we should see a little more mixing this
afternoon with slightly lower dewpoints. This should mean that
afternoon heat index values will be near yesterday`s for most of the
area except the southwest CWA which is expected to be above Advisory
criteria and issued an advisory for this area. The rest of the CWA
will be just under Heat Advisory Criteria and will handle that threat
with an SPS. After night time lows tonight in the middle to upper
70s across much of the area, highs tomorrow will be hot, but about
3-4 degrees cooler than today as the low-level thermal profile cools
with the loss of the increased subsidence.

LONG TERM (Sunday Night through Friday)...
On Monday, the previously mentioned trough moving into the NW CONUS
will be pushing east into the Ohio Valley and this should send a
weak frontal boundary into Texas Monday afternoon. The GFS/ECMWF both
stall this front near our northern border. This feature in
combination with little capping and abundant moisture could spark off
a couple of thunderstorms in the afternoon and perhaps lingering
into the evening hours. Will introduce a 20 PoP in the northern CWA
Monday afternoon for now, but these could be expanded in areal
coverage as well as extended into Monday evening with later forecasts.
Forecast soundings do show about 3000 J/kg of SBCAPE and an
inverted-v type sounding which could lead to the chance of
microbursts if stronger thunderstorms do develop. The lack of large-
scale forcing for ascent should keep the overall coverage of activity
low. Due to low probabilities and confidence will not mention
anything in the HWO yet.

The focus of the long-term forecast then shifts to the Gulf of Mexico
and the area of disturbed weather southeast of the Yucatan. The ECMWF
is the only model showing a lot of moisture moving into Texas, but
not one of the GFS ensemble members is showing any appreciable precip
late next week. Given the uncertainties, will have a 20 PoP in the
afternoons Thursday and Friday for the far eastern counties.

[Ntxw]

Another scorcher day across Texas. West of I-35 will be well into 100s. In west Texas it is going to be brutal with excessive heat warnings for 110-115+!

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
937 AM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

...EXCESSIVE HEAT CONTINUES ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...

.Temperatures will heat up well above normal today. High
temperatures will be above 105 at most locations with 110-115
degrees possible across the Permian Basin and along the Pecos
River. Temperatures will be above 115 degrees along the Rio
Grande.

Just interesting note out further west in Death Valley there may be 130+ temps this coming week. The continental (also the official world) record is 134F! What a heat ridge setting up for summer.

[Ntxw]

Not all is hot though, to balance out the previous post both GFS and Euro are hinting at an unusual summer cool air mass 10 days out down the rockies. Lets see if this is real.

[gpsnowman]

Damn that is hot!!! Let's hope those models turn out right. That is what summer should be all about, a meandering heat ridge which allows cooler air/storms to penetrate as far south as Texas at times as opposed to one that sets up shop and never moves for weeks at a time. We all know it will be hot, just how hot is the concern. I did notice in the morning local outlooks that no 100's are forecast. Small victories this time of year are all we can ask for. Come on September!!!!

[Cpv17]

The latest run of the Euro brings quite a bit of rain into south and SE TX.

[Brent]

GFS has a 59 on the meteogram at DFW let's see if it holds up

Several days below 90 taken verbatim

Looks like there's a front around next Sunday that starts it

[weatherdude1108]

Another scorcher day across Texas. West of I-35 will be well into 100s. In west Texas it is going to be brutal with excessive heat warnings for 110-115+!

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
937 AM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

...EXCESSIVE HEAT CONTINUES ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...

.Temperatures will heat up well above normal today. High
temperatures will be above 105 at most locations with 110-115
degrees possible across the Permian Basin and along the Pecos
River. Temperatures will be above 115 degrees along the Rio
Grande.

Just interesting note out further west in Death Valley there may be 130+ temps this coming week. The continental (also the official world) record is 134F! What a heat ridge setting up for summer.

That is only 78 degrees away from BOILING.

[Brent]

Euro brings 93L well into Texas(north of the last run), along with the UKMET, CMC did shift west but still remains east of the state, GFS is way over in Florida

At 120 the Euro is between San Antonio and Houston, would be a lot of rain for the state on this track, appears to be a big weakness over the state so it should keep pulling north

At 144 it's near or just east of DFW lol, this is a big shift north and would be pretty substantial for the population centers along 35 and east

Austin gets over 2 inches Houston over 3 inches

DFW doesn't see much rain(about a half inch) but has a day in the low 80s Friday

[TheProfessor]

Euro brings 93L well into Texas(north of the last run), along with the UKMET, CMC did shift west but still remains east of the state, GFS is way over in Florida

At 120 the Euro is between San Antonio and Houston, would be a lot of rain for the state on this track, appears to be a big weakness over the state so it should keep pulling north

At 144 it's near DFW lol, this is a big shift north and would be pretty substantial for the population centers along 35 and east

I'm kinda hoping this is what will happen, but the storm moves fast enough so significant flooding doesn't occur. But I love tropical rain, almost as much as snow actually.

[Brent]

Euro also has that cold front discussed earlier next weekend after 93L passes. GFS again had lows around 60 in DFW and a couple days with highs in the 80s

[DonWrk]

60% chance of rain added to the forecast for tonight. HRRR kind of looks promising.

[Ntxw]

GFS has a 59 on the meteogram at DFW let's see if it holds up

Several days below 90 taken verbatim

Looks like there's a front around next Sunday that starts it

It's now becoming more of a trend than noise. Looking like relief is in the works at least. But the pattern may yield a (refreshingly) unusual cooler period for being summer.

The troughing actually resembles a bit of mid July 2014 when DFW last had a record low in summer

[gpsnowman]

GFS has a 59 on the meteogram at DFW let's see if it holds up

Several days below 90 taken verbatim

Looks like there's a front around next Sunday that starts it

It's now becoming more of a trend than noise. Looking like relief is in the works at least. But the pattern may yield a (refreshingly) unusual cooler period for being summer.

The troughing actually resembles a bit of mid July 2014 when DFW last had a record low in summer

I remember a day in July a few years ago where it was cloudy with some rain and extremely humid but the high temp was only around 74 degrees. Is this what you are referring to?

[Ntxw]

GFS has a 59 on the meteogram at DFW let's see if it holds up

Several days below 90 taken verbatim

Looks like there's a front around next Sunday that starts it

It's now becoming more of a trend than noise. Looking like relief is in the works at least. But the pattern may yield a (refreshingly) unusual cooler period for being summer.

The troughing actually resembles a bit of mid July 2014 when DFW last had a record low in summer

I remember a day in July a few years ago where it was cloudy with some rain and extremely humid but the high temp was only around 74 degrees. Is this what you are referring to?

Most likely! 2013 and 2014 both had a day or two like that in July in a similar pattern. Both years had solid chilly winters, maybe a correlation? Both years the arctic had cool summers. A cool pattern is under way up there in the coming weeks.

[Brent]

Also interesting how this weekend has been cooler than forecast DFW hasn't been remotely close to 100 like forecast of course the humidity has been awful but still

See no signs they'll be hitting 100 anytime soon