Texas Summer 2017

[Brent]

wxman57 again posted in the winter thread about it being cold and icy...

Eclipse weather is looking great as far as I can tell, actually most of next week could be about as summery as it's been all summer... very hot and dry

[TheProfessor]

wxman57 again posted in the winter thread about it being cold and icy...

Eclipse weather is looking great as far as I can tell, actually most of next week could be about as summery as it's been all summer... very hot and dry

Looks like I'm getting out of here in the nick of time. It's expected to be mostly Sunny with a high of 84 degrees next Monday in Columbus.

[bubba hotep]

The latest Euro Weeklies keep the current pattern locked in with "cool" & wet for N. Texas and hot and dry for central & south Texas. Seems reasonable unless there is a tropical system into Texas to shake things up.

[South Texas Storms]

Think north Texas will be joining the rest of Texas with hot and dry weather soon. Latest forecast calls for highs near 100 this weekend with nil rain chances.

[Portastorm]

Thirty five (35) days now in 2017 where Camp Mabry has been at or above 100 degrees. I'm sure we'll easily add 5-10 more to those figures before Labor Day.

[weatherdude1108]

Thirty five (35) days now in 2017 where Camp Mabry has been at or above 100 degrees. I'm sure we'll easily add 5-10 more to those figures before Labor Day.

The local forecast guys had a blurb on KXAN. Makes me ill.

Forecast is on track for most 100º days since summer 2011

http://kxan.com/2014/02/25/daily-forecast-2/

[Cpv17]

Big changes by the CPC today on their 8-14 day precipitation forecast.

[weatherdude1108]

Big changes by the CPC today on their 8-14 day precipitation forecast.

Hmm. Interesting. Wonder what prompted the 180(?). Here's hoping, but as Porta would say, I'll believe it when I see it. We need our rain miser JDawg to chime in with his thoughts.
That three inches of rain I got over a week ago has long since evaporated in these consistent 100+ temperatures. My soil went from squishy back to solid.

[weatherdude1108]

I think the EWX may be SLOWLY alluding to a pattern shift, as I try to find any subtle blurb in the discussion that deviates from persistence. The thing is, the high pressure creating this localized misery in this part of Texas is not that large, given storms are forming in the nearby Edwards Plateau and forecasted in the Highway 77 corridor.

The ridge has somehow found a niche in Central and south Texas and created a feedback loop (drought begets drought), despite the widespread multi-inch rain that fell last week. It's as if the atmosphere still remembered this particular area of Texas has been in a dry spell.

I'm hoping the heat ridge is in the early stages of weakening, given a lower Sun angle with each passing day. This should help with its eventual demise, given time. I know there is a lag time.

But, here's to Fall right around the corner!


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
312 PM CDT Tue Aug 15 2017

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night)...
The early morning upper air observations show an upper trough in place
over the western U.S. with the subtropical high centered over south
Florida. A little closer to home, satellite data also shows an axis
of higher moisture in place from southwest Texas into far north
central Texas. Precipitable water values range from 1.7 to near 2.0
inches according to early afternoon data.

The above mentioned axis of higher moisture will move very little
tonight and Wednesday. This will result in a continued chance for
showers and thunderstorms across the southern Edwards Plateau. Hi-res
models show most convection will remain northwest of a Del Rio to
Rocksprings line. Coverage of showers and storms should be rather
low, so we will keep chances in the 20-30% range. We could also see
a few showers and storms develop Wednesday afternoon across the
coastal plains and Highway 77 corridor and will continue to mention
low chances (20%) in the latest forecast. Otherwise, expect another
mild night with increasing cloud cover after midnight and lows in the
70s. Another hot day is in store for Wednesday as highs once again
top out in the mid 90s to near 100. The heat combined with a
continued moist southeasterly flow in the low-levels will result in
elevated heat index values Wednesday afternoon and early evening. As
of now, it appears areas along and east of I-35 will be very close to
needing a Heat Advisory.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
The forecast for the remainder of the work week into early next week
will generally be dominated by a slowly expanding subtropical ridge
axis. However, the medium range models do show some inverted
mid/upper troughs moving through the Gulf of Mexico over the next
several days. One trough is currently forecast to move into the
western Gulf by early Thursday, with another scheduled for early
Monday. The second system appears to be stronger, but there is some
disagreement with regards to where this system will move inland.
While these inverted troughs may bring a brief opportunity for
rainfall, suspect chances will remain confined to the coast.
Otherwise, it appears high temperatures will continue to remain
roughly 3-5 degrees above normal, with overnight lows a few degrees
above normal. During this period of above normal temperatures, please
continue to exercise proper heat safety.

[Brent]

definitely seeing signs of a pattern change on the GFS... the summer pattern may not last much beyond mid week next week

[bubba hotep]

3k NAM is looking pretty wet for portions of DFW

[Ntxw]

Storms have lined up in Oklahoma. Lets see if they hold together and move close

[Brent]

NAM is wet in DFW, HRRR Is not

[bubba hotep]

00z FWD sounding is juiced up and the 00z 3k NAM shows nearly 5" for some areas.

[bubba hotep]

NAM is wet in DFW, HRRR Is not

HRRR had a strong streak a while back but has been pretty much trash here lately.

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

NAM is wet in DFW, HRRR Is not

HRRR had a strong streak a while back but has been pretty much trash here lately.

Yeah but fall is coming soon and there should be plenty of rain

[Texas Snowman]

Yet another flash flood warning in Grayson County.

Austin College Weather Station west of Sherman measured 4.01 inches overnight. They are reporting 13.39 inches for the month of August.

Just crazy weather.

[Ntxw]

I-35E on east event again. I think the airport picked up some but unsure. They should be reporting here in a few minutes

[gboudx]

Yeah it's been coming down in buckets in Rockwall We have to have at least 1.5" by now. Can't see my rain gauge yet.

Edit: found a PWS in my hood. 2.28" with 1.57 hourly rate.

[Texas Snowman]

@NWSFortWorth -- REPORT: Law enforcement reports multiple roads closed in Grayson Co due to high water; mostly in the western part of the county. #texomawx