Texas Summer 2017

[JDawg512]

Winds have been light but blowing from the northeast indicating that we are feeling the outter influence of Cindy. Other than that the heat is cranking, getting uncomfortably close to the century mark.

Of all the outcomes, this is by far the worst in terms of atmospheric drying and subsidence for us along the I-35 corridor. I agree with Ntxw that rain chances over the weekend will likely be much less to nill. At least we had a cooler day yesterday and the opportunity for some more to break up these hideous hot days.

[Portastorm]

Winds have been light but blowing from the northeast indicating that we are feeling the outter influence of Cindy. Other than that the heat is cranking, getting uncomfortably close to the century mark.

Of all the outcomes, this is by far the worst in terms of atmospheric drying and subsidence for us along the I-35 corridor. I agree with Ntxw that rain chances over the weekend will likely be much less to nill. At least we had a cooler day yesterday and the opportunity for some more to break up these hideous hot days.

I must be missing something because I didn't see where Ntxw thought our weekend rain chances were so low. He did mention that our rain chances per Cindy may be low but there is a frontal boundary still progged to impact North/Central Texas over the weekend with good rain chances.

[South Texas Storms]

The 00Z ECMWF has a Galveston landfall and then goes up right through Galveston Bay and has a direct hit on the eastern parts of Houston. It appears to me that the ridge is slightly stronger pushing it further west in this run.

Yep, if the Euro is right, even you might get in on the action!

Unfortunately IH-35 will likely not see any beneficial rainfall from this system.

Houston could get slammed though. Wish I could send it west!

My wife and daughter are headed to Katy tomorrow through Saturday morning to see her cousin. Do you think they will be okay?

Katy will likely be on the western edge of the system, so the worst impacts will likely remain east of there.

They should be aware of any west wobbles though!

[JDawg512]

Right here Porta.

Also if 93L moves in east of us, subsidence will likely lower late week rainfall chances outside of the Sabine River watershed. But the front will still come with cooler air but less if any rain.

[DonWrk]

Going to be absolute torture watching all this rain just to the east if all pans out like it's looking now.

[JDawg512]

This afternoons EWX discussion does mention some disturbances that may interact with the front. The big question is how much moisture will be around?

[aggiecutter]

[weatherdude1108]

6 to 10 day precip:

[Cpv17]

It's beginning to look like the whole state of TX will miss out on rain from Cindy. All the convection is well north and east of the center. We have a naked swirl on our hands and nothing but dry air to the west of the center. This storm is still a sloppy mess in my eyes.

[Ralph's Weather]

No 90s forecasted for the next week and rain everyday after today amazing for late June. Tomorrow and Friday will be windy and we will have to watch how much rain we get, the closer further east you are the more rain you will likely get in East Texas. Then a real cold front with rain this weekend. Lows for the first half of next week will be in the 60s and we will watch to see if someone in rural NE TX can dip into the 50s. The record lows for Tyler next week were all set in a cold blast in 1974 which bottomed out at 49 on the 27th which is crazy.

[Portastorm]

Subtle but noticeable weather impact here in the Austin area from TS Cindy. North winds and dewpoints roughly 8-10 degrees lower than yesterday at this time. No doubt she's bringing down drier, Continental air into Texas.

[Tireman4]

Subtle but noticeable weather impact here in the Austin area from TS Cindy. North winds and dewpoints roughly 8-10 degrees lower than yesterday at this time. No doubt she's bringing down drier, Continental air into Texas.

Game, set, match..Porta wins!!

[Ntxw]

It's been a rather pleasant June day today. Low 90s, humidity has been low and dew point around 60 which is comfortable with a northeast wind. Not bad at all!

[1900hurricane]

 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/877693862583685125




I mean I probably like big dewpoins more than the normal person, but this might be a little excessive.

[JDawg512]

As long as we can get that moisture back for this weekend. Today was nice but I'd rather have a nice downpour.

[Ntxw]

Unless you are in far east Texas or Houston-eastward, TS Cindy has largely been a disappointment rainwise. Always a gamble with gulf systems and fairly often we don't benefit statewide. Friday will be hot with compression before front, after that we are in a cool spell. Rain will be on and off from NW flow aloft, GFS trimmed back on totals at least for NTX but the real news is the cool air. If we can avoid 100 on Friday we may go through 4th of July without officially hitting 100F

[Tireman4]

022
FXUS64 KHGX 221117
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
617 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

.AVIATION...
Bands of precip rotating around Cindy will periodically impact terminals
along and east of I-45 today as the storm heads north along the
Tx/La border. Can`t rule out some embedded tstms with some
heating. MVFR ceilings should gradually lift into VFR territory
outside of precip later this morning and afternoon. 47

&&

.MARINE...
Diminishing NW winds will gradually back to the south today as TS Cindy
continues to move north along the Tx/La border today. The
gradient will tighten back up during the afternoon and evening
with speeds back up into small craft advisory criteria. Winds/seas
diminish going into the weekend. 47

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 506 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Tropical Storm Cindy has officially made landfall in southwestern
Louisiana this morning between Port Arthur Texas and Cameron
Louisiana. Tropical Storm Warnings across our area have been
cancelled as of 4 AM CDT. TS Cindy will continue to move north at
a decent clip and be over the ArkLaTex region by late tonight.
Coastal winds did briefly gust to Tropical Storm force yesterday
evening with water levels at high tide achieving 4 feet (MLLW)
that led to water run up/debris over the Brazoria and Galveston
County coastal roadways. Most areas along and east of I-45 picked
up 1 to 3 inches of overnight rainfall with eastern Chambers
County recording the highest totals at slightly over 3 inches. As
Cindy travels north up the Sabine River Valley...trailing bands
of showers with embedded thunderstorms will travel in from the
north and these may put down another 1 to 2 inches of rain...locally
2 to 3 inches across more northeastern counties such as Polk or
Trinity Counties...by tomorrow afternoon. Friday`s prog soundings
show an early day mid-level cap that will erode once surface
temperatures warm into the lower 80s. Thus this forecast calls
for just slight interior rain chances. The story turns from TS
Cindy to the heat Friday as...with high dew points in the middle
to upper 70s and a partially cloudy day...more sun will have
afternoon ambient temperatures warming into the lower to middle
90s equating to Friday`s heat indices in the 104 to 108 F range.

The weekend synoptic pattern has eastern Texas placed within a
height weakness channel...or between the Bermuda ridge and a
northwestern Mexico-centered ridge. Atmospheric column moisture
will be on the rise this weekend...from around Friday`s 1.8 to 1.9
inch values to over 2 inches Saturday...as steering flow transitions
from the northeast to southeast. An approaching weak frontal
boundary entering our very warm and humid regional environment
Saturday will kick off rounds of weekend precipitation. Precipitation
will be widespread...mainly occurring during the daytime hours
and be focused over the south(west)ern and central third of the
CWA as well as the maritime areas (or the progged location of the
highest moisture/theta e axis). The enhanced lower level focus
provided by this quasi-stationary boundary has weekend QPF forecast
to average around an inch across southeastern Texas. Mainly overcast
with an easterly wind will have diurnal temperatures ranging from
the very mild morning mid to upper 70s to afternoon upper 80s to
lower 90s.

Slightly drier weather is forecast in the extended as the daytime
inland rain focus is modeled to occur along the more localized sea
and bay breezes with overnight maritime rain clusters. Upper
ridging hangs back to the west with a broad longwave trough
positioned over the eastern CONUS. This will place Texas in that
middle ground of not being too subsident for any major
drought/excessive but just unstable enough to expect day to day
mesoscale convective behavior. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 91 76 95 77 91 / 30 10 10 30 50
Houston (IAH) 86 77 92 78 90 / 50 30 20 30 60
Galveston (GLS) 85 82 89 82 87 / 50 20 20 20 40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for the
following zones: Brazoria...Chambers...Galveston.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for the
following zones: Coastal waters from High Island to
Freeport out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Waters from Freeport
to the Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters
from High Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 4 PM CDT this
afternoon for the following zones: Coastal waters from
Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM.

&&

$$

[Brent]

Thanks for the clouds Cindy!

Very long-range but the GFS Is hinting at another front around 4th of July No sign of extreme heat other than how hot it gets tomorrow.

[JDawg512]

Short range models starting to show what could happen Saturday. Hopefully they stay consistent.

[Portastorm]

Short range models starting to show what could happen Saturday. Hopefully they stay consistent.

The Euro and GFS operational runs keep switching back and forth on QPF amounts. But if you average them out, they have suggested for the last few days that the Austin area will get between 1/2 and 1" of rain over the next week. We can only hope.