Texas Summer 2017

[Cpv17]

I'm a bit confused as to why the WPC QPF 7 day forecast doesn't show much rain for Texas when there's good agreement from the Euro and a couple other models that we'll be dealing with a tropical system come mid to late week.

[JDawg512]

Still not a sure thing though. We have a couple of days to go before we have a better handle about where it's headed.

I really hope we can get some relief but I'm in wait and see mode for now. It only takes as little as 50-100 miles in shift for us to either get slammed or see barely any rain at all. If it misses us to the east we'll be doomed on the dry side and we will be screwed.

[TheProfessor]

I'm a bit confused as to why the WPC QPF 7 day forecast doesn't show much rain for Texas when there's good agreement from the Euro and a couple other models that we'll be dealing with a tropical system come mid to late week.

I'm fairly certain that the NCEP maps use a combination of models including the GFS, NAM, and one more model I can't remember but isn't the Euro(Maybe the Rapid Refresh?). The GFS doesn't have any tropical rain for Texas right now and the NAM doesn't have a landfall yet at the end of its run.

[South Texas Storms]

I'm a bit confused as to why the WPC QPF 7 day forecast doesn't show much rain for Texas when there's good agreement from the Euro and a couple other models that we'll be dealing with a tropical system come mid to late week.

I'm fairly certain that the NCEP maps use a combination of models including the GFS, NAM, and one more model I can't remember but isn't the Euro(Maybe the Rapid Refresh?). The GFS doesn't have any tropical rain for Texas right now and the NAM doesn't have a landfall yet at the end of its run.

The NCEP maps use a blend of all of the models they think have a good handle on the current pattern (typically the NAM, GFS, UKMET, Euro, Canadian, or a combination of all of the above).

Think the GFS will continue to shift west closer to the Euro, UKMET, NAM, and Canadian models with this system. Areas along and east of IH-35 still have the best chance of getting some rain from this disturbance.

[TheProfessor]

I'm a bit confused as to why the WPC QPF 7 day forecast doesn't show much rain for Texas when there's good agreement from the Euro and a couple other models that we'll be dealing with a tropical system come mid to late week.

I'm fairly certain that the NCEP maps use a combination of models including the GFS, NAM, and one more model I can't remember but isn't the Euro(Maybe the Rapid Refresh?). The GFS doesn't have any tropical rain for Texas right now and the NAM doesn't have a landfall yet at the end of its run.

The NCEP maps use a blend of all of the models they think have a good handle on the current pattern (typically the NAM, GFS, UKMET, Euro, Canadian, or a combination of all of the above).

Think the GFS will continue to shift west closer to the Euro, UKMET, NAM, and Canadian models with this system. Areas along and east of IH-35 still have the best chance of getting some rain from this disturbance.

Yeah I was confusing it with the NCEP official models, which are the GFS, NAM, and RAP. But it does seem like they are currently favoring the Canadian and GFS and not the UK and EURO. If the UK and EURO are right their QPF map will likely shift west into Texas, Western LA and NE Mexico(as far as their map goes.).

[aggiecutter]

[weatherdude1108]

Still not a sure thing though. We have a couple of days to go before we have a better handle about where it's headed.

I really hope we can get some relief but I'm in wait and see mode for now. It only takes as little as 50-100 miles in shift for us to either get slammed or see barely any rain at all. If it misses us to the east we'll be doomed on the dry side and we will be screwed.

Fingers crossed we won't get screwed with this system. It was absolutely miserable this past weekend in the Austin metro. Hot, hazy and breezy. Sickening skies.

[Brent]

I dunno about 93L but man what a front next weekend on the Euro... DFW would be threatening record lowest maximums... Not out of the 70s maybe two days even...

Should note the GFS is warmer during the days but still 80s which is still well below normal, it has some near record lows(the Euro is a bit warmer at night)

[gboudx]

Gully washer here in Rockwall this morning. "Sweet, summer rain."

[Ntxw]

Eastplexers got lucky this morning! Congrats to you folks .

Models are still advertising an unusual summer cool spell this weekend into early next week. When you can get well into the 60s for lows and 70s/80s for highs JJA you know it's a miracle. If we could get 93L to move towards the mid TX coast, it will be rainy before frontal passage!

[Cpv17]

Yeah, we definitely need 93L to go over the lower to mid Texas coast. Somewhere south of Matagorda or else most of Texas will remain hot and dry.

[Ntxw]

Some storms are redeveloping east of I-35W across the metroplex. Should keep highs down today, loving it.

[JDawg512]

I really want that blob of rain to move farther south but it seems to be hitting a wall as it sags into Williamson County.

[Portastorm]

I really want that blob of rain to move farther south but it seems to be hitting a wall as it sags into Williamson County.

I think we'll get at least some light rain out of that MCS. It stretches pretty far to the NW as well. Keep the faith!

[weatherdude1108]

I really want that blob of rain to move farther south but it seems to be hitting a wall as it sags into Williamson County.

I think we'll get at least some light rain out of that MCS. It stretches pretty far to the NW as well. Keep the faith!

I'm keeping the faith. I think I least light rain will fall, enough to scatter the dust on the vehicles and create those wonderful beige-like spots.
Hopefully more will fall to actually wash off the dust/grime/sap/etc. I'm all for those free "car washes" and yard waterings.

[Portastorm]

Actually JDawg was right in being skeptical ... the damn thing evaporated!

[weatherdude1108]

:uarrow:

Actually JDawg was right in being skeptical ... the damn thing evaporated!

Well, it's light raining here at work right now. So it looks like the spotted car treatment.

[Cpv17]

Man I don't like these trends from the models today. Looks like where I am an hour southwest of Houston near Wharton is going to be left high and dry. If only this system would go more towards Matagorda then we'd get some decent rain here, but it's now looking like more towards Galveston which would leave us dry here. We could use some rain here. It's been 5 weeks now since we've had any.

[weatherdude1108]

Hey now, this tropical system may not do much for us, but after that, things seem more hopeful!

000
FXUS64 KEWX 191933
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
233 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night)...
The last gasps of an MCS, which moved south from Oklahoma last night
and this morning, will dissipate by sunset across the Hill Country
and along the I-35 corridor. Strong capping and the downlimb of
diurnal heating should result in the storms` demise. Most locations
will remain dry, and only a few might receive 1/10 inch of rain.

Otherwise, look for one more night and day of repeat conditions, with
morning low clouds, followed by a partly cloudy and hot afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
The extended period has most of the interest with the development of
a tropical event in the Gulf of Mexico. A Hurricane Hunter aircraft
will reach the purported center of circulation around 3 pm (20Z), and
investigate the storm for a circulation, maximum winds, etc..
Depending on the data and incoming model runs, there might be a named
storm sometime late this afternoon or evening.

However, until a circulation becomes established, model solutions are
speculative, especially with the track and size of the event. In
general, south central Texas seems to be well west of the system, and
our forecast represents that with northeasterly flow bringing dry
continental air into the area, and high temperatures nudging back up
to near 100 by Thursday and Friday.

What the models do agree on is an anomalously cold air mass moving
south through the Plains behind a cold front next weekend. Right now
the front should arrive late Saturday and push through the area on
Sunday. The result should be much cooler conditions, with highs 85-90
and lows around 70 possible next Sunday through Tuesday. In addition,
the stalling front and moist Gulf air should generate a couple rounds
of showers and thunderstorms, bringing substantial rain to most of
the area.

[starsfan65]

Where is this system in the Gulf going?