STORM2K

JDawg512 wrote:

Shoshana wrote:

weatherdude1108 wrote:I had an inch from Thursday. Emptied that to prep for Harvey. Emptied gauge last night at 4 inches. I have an additional 2.5 inches now.

7.5 inches for me. Been more of a consistent windy system over last 36 hours with constant, but manageable rain. Lots of downed twigs and branches.

We also sprung a leak in the kitchen ceiling last night! Just drips. No leaks today since last night. Think the constant wind and gusts over 36 hours may have loosened roofing.

But we contacted our home insurance. An adjuster is coming in a day or two. Someone supposed to come with a tarp to cover roof in the morning. Another guy we know in Georgetown also has a leak in his house. They also had a couple buckets catching water from doorways at church this morning. So we aren't the only ones with a leak apparently. Ms. Weatherdude1108s aunt and uncle cypress said there is two inches of water in their house. They moved up to the second floor. Power on. Crazy stuff going on in SE Texas, something we won't likely experience in a while!

I don't know how much rain we've had but it has to have been at least 10". We sprang a couple leaks too, one I think was the wind driving the rain under the flashing or something cause we never got a drip in the house just a small damp spot on the ceiling. The other one was also wind driven where we need to reseal a window. All on the north side of the house. Normally we don't get rain blown from that direction.

Interesting that you mentioned blowing rain getting in, I had to put towels down on the floor by the door leading out to the lanai. Water was blowing through the door crack. It's the first time this has happened.

We noticed it on a different window a while back. We recaulked the tops of all the windows on the first floor yesterday. Still trying to figure out the flashing issue

Shoshana wrote:

JDawg512 wrote:

Shoshana wrote:
I don't know how much rain we've had but it has to have been at least 10". We sprang a couple leaks too, one I think was the wind driving the rain under the flashing or something cause we never got a drip in the house just a small damp spot on the ceiling. The other one was also wind driven where we need to reseal a window. All on the north side of the house. Normally we don't get rain blown from that direction.

Interesting that you mentioned blowing rain getting in, I had to put towels down on the floor by the door leading out to the lanai. Water was blowing through the door crack. It's the first time this has happened.

We noticed it on a different window a while back. We recaulked the tops of all the windows on the first floor yesterday. Still trying to figure out the flashing issue

Yeah, I see a definite metal piece sticking up next to the chimney, facing the direction from where the wind was blowing on it. I'm thinking that is the source of my ceiling leak. But I have a roofer coming out later today to check my ceiling and roof.

Compared to those living through the ordeal in Houston and those affected in Corpus, and areas in between, I feel blessed. Not complaining about a small leak at all.

27" total since Friday in Angleton. I work for the drainage district in Alvin and the flooding is beyond anything I could ever imagine.

What the heck is the GFS trying to do here? It's sending up what looks to be either a strong tropical wave or a depression towards Matagorda in a week from now with another 10-15 inches of rain over areas that just got hammered. Geez.

Cpv17 wrote:What the heck is the GFS trying to do here? It's sending up what looks to be either a strong tropical wave or a depression towards Matagorda in a week from now with another 10-15 inches of rain over areas that just got hammered. Geez.

I saw that. Just terrible if it were to verify.

I know it's a long way out, but is next week's system looking like it will impact central and west Texas more than east Texas?

gulfcoast200 wrote:27" total since Friday in Angleton. I work for the drainage district in Alvin and the flooding is beyond anything I could ever imagine.

Be safe out there! Your description of the flooding is all too common right now. I guess "incomprehensible" is the word.

Stepping back from the chaos and heartache this storm is bringing on so many, and analyzing the big picture of this storm, it is amazing how long it has kept its momentum, even being on land for a few days, away from its source of energy (Gulf). It had moved slowly over the Gulf also prior to landfall, now paralleling the coast about to move inland again, bringing in copious moisture and maintaining its TS force winds.

Even with that slow motion from a logical standpoint, the ocean gets stirred up with constant wave motions and mixing of cooler currents from the depths to the surface. Logically, the cooler water brought to the surface should weaken a tropical system over time as the storm stays over an area of sea.

There is cool water at some depth below the surface of the Gulf of Mexico (or any sea/ocean). My guess is that there has been such a "drought" of tropical systems in the Gulf over the years (and we had an abnormally warm Winter and Spring last year), that it has sufficiently heated the water column from the surface to some depth, creating a vast source of warm water for any storm that gets its act together, sits and spins (with weak to non-existing sheer and pressures to create the perfect scenario). Therefore, I guess the storms that develop in the Gulf this year can last a lot longer over one area than normally(?).

I may be getting off-track, I'm just in an inquisitive mood at the moment trying to analyze this storm for what it is, and how it came to do what it did (minus the emotions created by it, which are heartbreaking in itself). I know there were no fronts or mid-latitude troughs or high pressure systems to take it south or shove it east.

I guess it was a combination of extremely warm water, the right sheers and pressures, and it becoming stuck in a stagnant atmosphere, absent of any large scale weather systems to kick it out sooner, hence the all-time record flooding.

The rain over the Gulf can also "cool" it off to some extent. Then again, it may be evaporating as fast as it is raining, creating a never-ending river of water on the eastern side in the northern hemisphere (thanks to the Coriolis effect) if the system keeps its rotation.

I guess I answered my own question. Anyway, probably need a pro met to chime in.

Just a staggering, incomprehensible week of weather in Texas...

New flash flood warning for Beaumont et al with possibly another 10-15" tonight, according to Rick Knabb-

Flash Flood Warning
Flash Flood Warning
TXC199-241-245-351-361-300915-
/O.NEW.KLCH.FF.W.0079.170830T0316Z-170830T0915Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1016 PM CDT TUE AUG 29 2017

...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR JEFFERSON...ORANGE and HARDIN COUNTIES...

The National Weather Service in Lake Charles has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
Jefferson County in southeastern Texas...
Southwestern Newton County in southeastern Texas...
Hardin County in southeastern Texas...
Orange County in southeastern Texas...
Southeastern Jasper County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 415 AM CDT

* At 1015 PM CDT,Doppler radar continued to indicate a nearly stationary area of heavy rains impacting the warned area.

Widespread flooding is already occurring. High resolution forecast guidance indicates another 10 to 15 inches of rain is possible over the remainder of the night. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW!

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Beaumont, Port Arthur, Orange, Nederland, Groves, Port Neches, Lumberton, Vidor, Bridge City, Silsbee, West Orange, Kountze, Sour Lake, Nome, Deweyville, Evadale, Central Gardens, Sabine Pass, Thicket and Saratoga.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Move to higher ground now. This is an extremely dangerous and life-threatening situation. Do not attempt to travel unless you are fleeing an area subject to flooding or under an evacuation order.

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the dangers of flooding.

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as other drainage areas and low lying spots.

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause flooding of small creeks and streams, country roads, farmland, and other low lying spots.

&&

LAT...LON 3049 9473 3052 9371 3044 9370 3039 9376
3033 9376 3029 9371 3008 9373 3006 9370
3006 9372 3000 9377 2998 9387 2981 9395
2968 9385 2967 9405 2956 9435 2989 9436
2989 9444 3011 9445 3011 9460

$$

25

At 10:09 p.m. On August 29, 2017...

@Wxmanms1 -- Beaumont-Pt. Arthur airport now up to 17.89" today, 10.78" of which has fallen since 1 pm. Heavier amts likely E/NE of arpt per MRMS #txwx

17.89 inches today in Beaumont?!? And another 10 to 15 inches possible tonight?!?

Portastorm wrote:Remember when we used to have legitimate tropical systems/threats in the western Gulf?

Yeah ... me too.

what a difference a week makes...

The 0z GFS just gave me another 10" of rain for next week on top of the 25" I had from Harvey..unreal.

0z Euro has a big trough saving Texas and has the storm next week headed well east of the state

Gonna be some really nice weather if that trough happens, coolest temperatures in months. In fact the 0z Euro drops DFW Into the 50s next Friday!!!

Just an utterly horrific night of flooding ongoing in the Golden Triangle.

This was posted about 3:15 a.m. to the Southeast Louisiana Storm Spotter's Facebook page:

"URGENT--
ALL CAJUN NAVY ASSETS IN AND HEADING TO THE BEAUMONT-PORT ARTHUR AND ORANGE TEXAS AREAS HAVE BEEN ORDERED TO STAND DOWN AND PULL BACK TO HIGHER GROUND DUE TO THE FEROCITY OF CURRENTS IN THE FLOODED AREAS ABOVE.
WE HAVE CONFIRMED REPORTS OF SEVERAL RESCUE BOATS THAT HAVE CAPSIZED AND SWEPT AWAY. STATUS OF THE BOAT PERSONNEL ARE UNKNOWN EXCEPT FOR ONE WHICH IS IN THE PROCESS OF BEING RESCUED BY A COAST GUARD HELICOPTER AT THIS TIME.
PUBLIC OFFICIALS HAVE SAID THAT RIGHT NOW THIS WILL ONLY BE A COAST GUARD, FIRST RESPONDER AND CERTIFIED SAR ASSET OPERATION. ALL OTHERS WILL BE STOPPED BEFORE ENTERING INTO THE AREAS WHERE THE WATER IS SO BAD THAT ONLY LARGE BOATS WITH AT LEAST A 300HP ENGINE ARE BEING ALLOWED.
REPEATING, ALL CAJUN NAVY ASSETS HAVE BEEN ORDERED TO STAND DOWN AND PULL BACK FROM THE BEAUMONT-PORT ARTHUR AND ORANGE TEXAS AREAS BY CAJUN NAVY LEADERSHIP."

Brent wrote:

Portastorm wrote:Remember when we used to have legitimate tropical systems/threats in the western Gulf?

Yeah ... me too.

what a difference a week makes...

Yeah ... to be honest I feel like an absolute idiot now for posting that. How quickly things can change. I deserve all the grief and abuse I should get on here.

Reminds me of a former poster here who declared hurricane season over for Texas in 2008 about a week before Ike hit.

Cpv17 wrote:The 0z GFS just gave me another 10" of rain for next week on top of the 25" I had from Harvey..unreal.

6z GFS even worse ... let's hope it's just the GFS doing GFS things.

Portastorm wrote:

Cpv17 wrote:The 0z GFS just gave me another 10" of rain for next week on top of the 25" I had from Harvey..unreal.

6z GFS even worse ... let's hope it's just the GFS doing GFS things.

What's it showing now?

There is a whole thread on it here:

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=119080

Portastorm wrote:

Brent wrote:

Portastorm wrote:Remember when we used to have legitimate tropical systems/threats in the western Gulf?

Yeah ... me too.

what a difference a week makes...

Yeah ... to be honest I feel like an absolute idiot now for posting that. How quickly things can change. I deserve all the grief and abuse I should get on here.

Reminds me of a former poster here who declared hurricane season over for Texas in 2008 about a week before Ike hit.

hey don't feel too bad... I think most of us regulars felt the same way. I know there was a good amount of skepticism at Harvey for a long time, we laughed at the model runs and at the satellite appearance, I mean it had been so many years...