Texas Fall 2017

[Ntxw]

Not a bad 500mb look on the Euro Ensembles. Not an Arctic Outbreak, but we'll take the ridges out west and east of us. Usually translates to unsettled and cool pocket over the southern plains.



Maybe signs of an early season bowling ball low.

[Ntxw]

2017___Oct31
2016___Oct31___87/61/74/11/warmer than average (La Nina/Neutral)
2015___Oct31___68 /59/ 64/ 1/ warmer than average (El Nino)
2014___Oct31___67/ 47/ 57/ -6/ colder than average (El Nino)
2013___Oct31___75/ 54/ 65/ 2/ colder than average (Neutral)
2012___Oct31___83/ 50/ 67/ 4/ warmer than average (Neutral)
2011___Oct31___77/ 46/ 62/ -1/ warmer than average (La Nina)
2010___Oct31___85/ 53/ 69/ 8/ warmer than average (La Nina)
2009___Oct31___74/ 41/ 58/ -3/ colder than average (El Nino)
2008___Oct31___84/ 59/ 72/ 11/ warmer than average (La Nina)
2007___Oct31___81/ 54/ 68/ 7/ warmer than average (La Nina)
2006___Oct31___70/ 45/ 58/ -3/ warmer than average (El Nino)
2005___Oct31___73/ 51/ 62/ 1/ warmer than average (La Nina)
2004___Oct31___84/ 62/ 73/ 12/ warmer than average (El Nino)
2003___Oct31___87/ 72/ 80/ 19/ warmer than average (Neutral)
2002___Oct31___52/ 46/ 49/ -12/ colder than average (El Nino)


Things that make you go hmmmm

What an ugly warm period from 2003-2008 . That's nearly the entire 2000s decade, 2010s have been better somewhat thought really you're only talking about 2 cold winters per decade on that list..sometimes the real numbers as is can be blunt about the truth.

[Portastorm]

Since it was brought up about a possible cold Halloween, I thought I would toss out a little unscientific, but factual data. As you may or may not know, several years ago I did a thing I called the Halloween analogy. The folklore behind it (mine of course) is that if Halloween was either colder or warmer than normal, then that would tell you how the following Winter would play out. The side bonus was if Halloween was wet it meant a wetter Winter.

So here is Halloween 2002-2016 and what the following winter was like on average. (.05 +/- is average) (1.0 +/- is warmer/colder than avg) Winter 2013/2014 could go average/slightly colder than....

I didn't do the precip averages but the colder winters did tend to be slightly wetter historically.



Year__Halloween__High/Low/Avg/ +/- Following Winter

2017___Oct31
2016___Oct31___87/61/74/11/warmer than average (La Nina/Neutral)
2015___Oct31___68 /59/ 64/ 1/ warmer than average (El Nino)
2014___Oct31___67/ 47/ 57/ -6/ colder than average (El Nino)
2013___Oct31___75/ 54/ 65/ 2/ colder than average (Neutral)
2012___Oct31___83/ 50/ 67/ 4/ warmer than average (Neutral)
2011___Oct31___77/ 46/ 62/ -1/ warmer than average (La Nina)
2010___Oct31___85/ 53/ 69/ 8/ warmer than average (La Nina)
2009___Oct31___74/ 41/ 58/ -3/ colder than average (El Nino)
2008___Oct31___84/ 59/ 72/ 11/ warmer than average (La Nina)
2007___Oct31___81/ 54/ 68/ 7/ warmer than average (La Nina)
2006___Oct31___70/ 45/ 58/ -3/ warmer than average (El Nino)
2005___Oct31___73/ 51/ 62/ 1/ warmer than average (La Nina)
2004___Oct31___84/ 62/ 73/ 12/ warmer than average (El Nino)
2003___Oct31___87/ 72/ 80/ 19/ warmer than average (Neutral)
2002___Oct31___52/ 46/ 49/ -12/ colder than average (El Nino)


Things that make you go hmmmm

While it is a relatively small statistical sample, I have to admit the evidence is compelling. Seems to support the Captin's Halloween analogy. Very interesting!

[bubba hotep]

Not a bad 500mb look on the Euro Ensembles. Not an Arctic Outbreak, but we'll take the ridges out west and east of us. Usually translates to unsettled and cool pocket over the southern plains.



Maybe signs of an early season bowling ball low.

Then beyond that, it digs a deep trough down the central portion of the country. Fairly strong signal for a nice below normal stretch.

[CaptinCrunch]

NWS Fort Worth F6 data page only went back to 2002 but yeah it was a really warm decade from 2000 thru 2009. However it's odd to see 12 of 15 Winters go the same way that October 31st did based on the daily average. I'm pricing a 1/2 cord this year since it took the last 2 winters just to burn a full cord.

What was consistent were LaNina winters, all warm, while El Nino was 50/50 as well were Neutrals. Look we live in a warm winter region, so I fully expect more times than not we have warm winters. What I as well as you all hate is the extremely warm non-cold and dry winters, just like the last 2 suck ass winter we've experienced.

[Ntxw]

NWS Fort Worth F6 data page only went back to 2002 but yeah it was a really warm decade from 2000 thru 2009. However it's odd to see 12 of 15 Winters go the same way that October 31st did based on the daily average. I'm pricing a 1/2 cord this year since it took the last 2 winters just to burn a full cord.

What was consistent were LaNina winters, all warm, while El Nino was 50/50 as well were Neutrals. Look we live in a warm winter region, so I fully expect more times than not we have warm winters. What I as well as you all hate is the extremely warm non-cold and dry winters, just like the last 2 suck ass winter we've experienced.

Yes, you can go back further with NCDC data that is the official records for the sites after finalized. Indeed I've made note earlier we have not had a "cold" winter Nina since 1980s. We've had cold spurts within what is an overall warm winters during La Nina of any kind the past few decades. I do hope it ends up neutral, the door is more open that way.

[Brent]

What a bunch of warm halloweens

[dhweather]

Cold front is moving into the western portions of DFW but, don't worry, the heat will be back next weekend

It never ends apparently. Thats all it ever is around here

North Texas weather in a nutshell:

Winter:

Mild with a some cold days mixed in, little rain, even less wintry precip.

Spring:

Warm with some hot days mixed in, occasional rain. Isolated heavy rains.

Summer:

Hot with several days hotter than hell. Rain?

Fall:

Warm with some hot days mixed in, and occasionally a cool down for a few days. Rain?

[JDawg512]

Hmm... Big Texas rain event before full latitude trough sets up across Central US?



When filtering analogs by QBO there does appear to be a risk of this winter being wetter than a typical Nina. However, I'm still bummed ENSO didn't play along with my fav analog from back in March.

This is where I see a silver lining. While we know general patterns during El Niños/La Niñas, each event is a little different depending on factors such as water temp placement across the Pacific and other pattern cycles having an influence. My hope is that this La Niña could be a little more kind to us in terms of moisture. I wouldn't bet on it however but it's something to watch for at least as we head into the winter months.

[bubba hotep]

Seriously? Ugh... The Euro now wants to retrograde that cutoff back towards Cali...

[Brent]

GFS has snow and freezing temperatures close to DFW the weekend before Halloween

[Ntxw]

Cold front on the way with showers along it. 60s tomorrow and first widespread 40s for lows.

[CaptinCrunch]

Hmm, maybe the rain got lost on its way to my house... Lol, not a drop fell

[Tireman4]

Meanwhile in the Holler, it is 92 degrees and freaking hot

[Brent]

Models starting to agree on a possibly widespread rainfall sometime next weekend into the following week

and still hints of bigger cold right before Halloween

[Cpv17]

Models starting to agree on a possibly widespread rainfall sometime next weekend into the following week

and still hints of bigger cold right before Halloween

What’s the Euro show for SE TX next weekend?

[JDawg512]

Well at least festival goers had one cool day for ACL. Up next is Formula 1 U.S. Grand Prix. Would be cool to see a wet race. 2015's race started right as the rains from Patricia ended.

[weatherdude1108]

Well at least festival goers had one cool day for ACL. Up next is Formula 1 U.S. Grand Prix. Would be cool to see a wet race. 2015's race started right as the rains from Patricia ended.

They may have to move it up to mid-November in the coming years, for cooler, more comfortable temps.

[weatherdude1108]

I love 40s in October, and a chance for a cut-off low to set up shop late this weekend.

000
FXUS64 KEWX 160825
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
325 AM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

.SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday)...
Cool conditions and breezy northerly winds continue across South-
Central Texas tonight. The 10-15 mph winds are keeping temperatures
from dropping too far with values currently in the 50s to middle 60s.
Should see temps drop several more degrees before solar insolation
commences with sunrise. Today should be pretty outstanding across the
region with mostly clear skies and temperatures in the lower to
middle 70s. Surface winds well be weaker tonight, and with dewpoints
in the 30s and 40s we should have much better radiational cooling
than tonight. This will lead to our coldest night of the Fall season
with lows bottoming out in the 40s for much if not all the area.
Lower 40s are expected for the Hill Country. Another day in the 70s
to near 80 degrees is expected Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Winds will remain light through the Wednesday which should keep
moisture values low. After lows in the 40s and 50s Wednesday morning,
highs will be in the lower 80s across much of the region. By
Thursday, a weak shortwave trough will approach the area and we
should southerly flow increase ahead of the system. This increase in
flow should help bring begin to bring moisture back to the region.
The areas with sufficient moisture for rain chances Thursday
afternoon in an area of weak lift will be across the southeastern
quadrant of the CWA and will show a 20 PoP. Friday, the trough will
be east of the area, but moisture values should continue to support
isolated to scattered diurnally driven showers and storms for areas
east of I-35.

On Saturday, a large trough axis will be pushing through the Central
Plains and this trough axis will send another cold front into the
area on Sunday. The GFS is farther south and slower than the ECMWF
on the track of the base of the trough and is therefore much more wet
than the ECMWF ahead of the front Saturday through Sunday. This
trough axis is expected to close off into closed-low as well on
Sunday which could continue rain chances beyond the forecast package.
However, there are large differences in the medium-range guidance
regarding the exact location where this is expected to happen. Rain
chances and temperatures Sunday and beyond will be highly dependent
on the exact position of the closed low.

[Ralph's Weather]

48 at my house this morning and low 40s possible tomorrow morning as winds die off.