Texas Fall 2017

[JDawg512]

Enjoying this lovely morning storm.

[Shoshana]

Enjoying this lovely morning storm.

Me too, except I didn’t enjoy the sound of hail hitting the windows. At least it was tiny (sounded pea sized) so if I got dings on my car at least they won’t be noticeable amongst the already there hail damage

[starsfan65]

0z Euro has a lot of cold rain(over an inch) Friday Night into Saturday in DFW, temperatures in the 40s most of the day Saturday

Could be our first winter tease

Cold would peak Saturday and Sunday then gradually warmup

Early look at Halloween it appears temperatures will moderate some by then(Euro is in the 60s for highs, GFS well into the 70s)

It better not get warm for Halloween!!

[dhweather]

1.66" of liquid gold in Heath overnight

[weatherdude1108]

Enjoying this lovely morning storm.

Me too, except I didn’t enjoy the sound of hail hitting the windows. At least it was tiny (sounded pea sized) so if I got dings on my car at least they won’t be noticeable amongst the already there hail damage

We were driving back from Katy and hit some heavy rain with lightning. Saw 0.75 in the gauge.

[Brent]

GFS/Euro agree on DFW temperatures in the 50s all day Friday with possibly a little rain, a very raw and dreary winter-like day

Saturday has some disagreement, the GFS approaches 70 while the Euro stays mostly in the 50s

Temperatures warm up Sunday and especially next Monday with widespread 70s

Halloween preview

GFS mid/upper 70s
Euro mid 60s/around 70

Probably a storm system just after Halloween to begin November

[gpsnowman]

NBC 5 has a 58 for Saturday with a low of 38 Sunday morning. Maybe some area frost I would imagine. Excellent.

[CaptinCrunch]

Good Morning,

Yes, Yes, yes......much cooler weather is on tap for this weekend . I do hope for some showers as this past weekend rain was very disappointing at the house. Did get some thunder but not much rain at all, don't even think it was 1/4"

The second in our frontal trilogy this week will make Tuesday
noticeably cooler than today. Gusty northwest winds will prevail
much of the day. Even with full sun, temperatures will take the
better part of the day to reach 70F. Locations north of the I-20
corridor will likely remain in the 60s. Temperatures will plunge
into the 40s Tuesday night. If the winds are able to go calm, a
few spots may dip into the 30s Wednesday morning, but the current
forecast will keep just enough wind in the surface layer to avoid
this. The postfrontal air mass may be too dry, but with sub-
freezing dew points west of the I-35 corridor, this will need to
be scrutinized carefully for frost potential.

The thin layer of cold air will quickly erode on Wednesday, and a
pleasant afternoon will follow. The warming trend will continue
into Thursday when breezy south and southwest winds push
temperatures back above normal. With enough of a westerly
component, western zones may reach 90F. With relative humidity
values falling below 30 percent, there may be some fire weather
concerns, but the recent rainfall that kick-started the autumn
growing season may have provided enough fuel moisture to limit
wildfire initiation.

The GFS/CMC consensus has sped up the arrival of our late week
front. The latest ECMWF (23/00Z) is also trending toward an
earlier FROPA, but its solution still lags behind the others. As
the trough over the eastern half of the country deamplifies, our
flow will become more zonal in advance of the front. But once an
air mass of the magnitude is charging down the plains, it
typically has enough inertia to continue. Thus, will favor the
quicker arrival (now Thursday night). Low rain chances will linger
into Friday night and Saturday. This doesn`t appear to be a good
setup for much postfrontal rain, but since the PoP forecast is by
definition probabilistic, this will cover the slower/wetter ECMWF.
Even if the clouds quickly clear, Friday and Saturday should still
be unseasonably cool with our Red River counties peaking in the
50s. Some locations will see morning lows in the 30s Saturday and
Sunday. Sunday could be frosty for some, but have kept much of the
region safely in the 40s.

[starsfan65]

GFS/Euro agree on DFW temperatures in the 50s all day Friday with possibly a little rain, a very raw and dreary winter-like day

Saturday has some disagreement, the GFS approaches 70 while the Euro stays mostly in the 50s

Temperatures warm up Sunday and especially next Monday with widespread 70s

Halloween preview

GFS mid/upper 70s
Euro mid 60s/around 70

Probably a storm system just after Halloween to begin November

How is there are disagreements with these forecast models?

[Yukon Cornelius]

GFS/Euro agree on DFW temperatures in the 50s all day Friday with possibly a little rain, a very raw and dreary winter-like day

Saturday has some disagreement, the GFS approaches 70 while the Euro stays mostly in the 50s

Temperatures warm up Sunday and especially next Monday with widespread 70s

Halloween preview

GFS mid/upper 70s
Euro mid 60s/around 70

Probably a storm system just after Halloween to begin November

How is there are disagreements with these forecast models?

Its still quite a ways out and a disagreement with the models this time frame out seems to be the norm.

[JDawg512]

:)

Enjoying this lovely morning storm.

Me too, except I didn’t enjoy the sound of hail hitting the windows. At least it was tiny (sounded pea sized) so if I got dings on my car at least they won’t be noticeable amongst the already there hail damage

We were driving back from Katy and hit some heavy rain with lightning. Saw 0.75 in the gauge.

Close to an inch (0.97") fell here at the rain cave. Not too bad, however we we're pretty lucky that we got as much as we did in the Austin area. The line really thinned and broke up from Hays County southward. These systems continue to be pretty far north and the forecast indicates a continuation of mainly tail end or dry fronts.

[aggiecutter]

[gpsnowman]

That sure is a beautiful map. Maybe it is just the certain time frame, but the core of cold seems a bit further west than some of the other maps I have seen. Either way the weekend will be nice and cool. I can't wait.

[Brent]

FWD mentioning freezing temperatures possible in NW zones this weekend

[Ntxw]

FWD mentioning freezing temperatures possible in NW zones this weekend

If Euro is right, probably even northern half of NTX. 0C 850s well to the south

[Ntxw]

So far the fronts have been somewhat more impressive than the past few years during this month. We've had a few nights in the 40s at the airport when the past 2 had basically zero below 50 temps. 2012 was the last time we were in the 30s during Oct.

We've hit 90 or more a bit easily though which has been the other side of the coin.

[Ralph's Weather]

So far the fronts have been somewhat more impressive than the past few years during this month. We've had a few nights in the 40s at the airport when the past 2 had basically zero below 50 temps. 2012 was the last time we were in the 30s during Oct.

We've hit 90 or more a bit easily though which has been the other side of the coin.

This is how most of the winter will lilely be. Warm and dry between fronts with precip near the fronts then cold post front. Not much sustained moisture so temps will fluctuate significantly.

I am thinking that Sunday could be frosty and with maybe a freeze in NE Tx if the high doesn't shift east too quickly. Friday will likely be pretty raw easpecially if the trough axis is on the western side of guidance.

[Ntxw]

It would be really nice if the modeled -EPO pattern is a dominant feature this winter. Many of us would take a 2013-2014 redux



November is likely to start with several seasonally modified cold surges. We've basically settled into the Pacific regime shift, with fronts becoming common, each colder than the previous. Such patterns are hard to change seasonally once they've become dominant, particularly with lengthening wavelengths.

[Ralph's Weather]

It would be really nice if the modeled -EPO pattern is a dominant feature this winter. Many of us would take a 2013-2014 redux

November is likely to start with several seasonally modified cold surges. We've basically settled into the Pacific regime shift, with fronts becoming common, each colder than the previous. Such patterns are hard to change seasonally once they've become dominant, particularly with lengthening wavelengths.

That is a beautiful gif. November may be a very cool month and hopefully that will continue through the winter.

[Brent]

If DFW hits 30s this weekend it'll be 3-4 weeks earlier than the last 2 falls so hopefully that's a sign of a different winter. Of course last November opened with temps pushing 90

In other news the 0z Euro still hasn't loaded and it was due an hour ago. Halloween is looking pretty nice at this point, probably temps very seasonal and right now dry though a storm system may be approaching Halloween night. The CMC has rain breaking out by afternoon in N TX.