Texas Fall 2017

[Ntxw]

Anyone think EPAC Norma could bring us some rain middle end of next week? It looks like it's going to recurve

That's what some guidance are showing, particularly the GFS with a heavy rain event connected to Norma after landfall near the baja or NW Mex.

[Brent]

Euro doesn't show much during the work week but has a good front next weekend with widespread rainfall

[aggiecutter]

Great info aggiecutter.

We've been bandying about the whole Niña thing in the Texas Winter thread also. We've had several nice winter weather events in Austin during Niña winters. The last time it snowed here was during a Niña winter (2011).

I just went back and looked more closely at the graph that I posted earlier. Nearly all the years where there was a strong to moderately strong La Nina, the Texarkana area was the recipient of some sort of major winter weather event. 1973- major ice storm in January. 1989- Frigid cold in December. 2000- 2 major winter storms and a catastrophic ice-storm. 2011- on two occasions in January, Texarkana received 6" of snow, and a 4" snowfall the first week of February. As Ryan Maue posted yesterday, there is a correlation between strong to moderately strong La Ninas and severe winter weather.

I would take that even further and say there is also a correlation between extreme weather events and La Ninas. In 2011, there was the Dixie Alley Tornado outbreak in April, the devastating Joplin tornado in May, and the record breaking heat-drought in the southern plains that summer.

[Ntxw]

Great info aggiecutter.

We've been bandying about the whole Niña thing in the Texas Winter thread also. We've had several nice winter weather events in Austin during Niña winters. The last time it snowed here was during a Niña winter (2011).

I just went back and looked more closely at the graph that I posted earlier. Nearly all the years where there was a strong to moderately strong La Nina, the Texarkana area was the recipient of some sort of major winter weather event. 1973- major ice storm in January. 1989- Frigid cold in December. 2000- 2 major winter storms and a catastrophic ice-storm. 2011- on two occasions in January, Texarkana received 6" of snow, and a 4" snowfall the first week of February. As Ryan Maue posted yesterday, there is a correlation between strong to moderately strong La Ninas and severe winter weather.

I would take that even further and say there is also a correlation between extreme weather events and La Ninas. In 2011, there was the Dixie Alley Tornado outbreak in April, the devastating Joplin tornado in May, and the record breaking heat-drought in the southern plains that summer.

1972-1973 was a super El Nino. 1989-1990 was neutral. We do tend to get some powerful spells of cold if the dam does open in moderate to strong Ninas but overall the winters as a whole are above average. Hence we had a strong blast of cold early January (despite the warmest winter on record) just this past Nina.

[Ntxw]

I'd like a cold October and November to be honest. I'm tired of these warm falls . For once can't we just have winter from October to March!

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Really cooled down alot this week in the pacific. Warm pool north of hawaii were to strengthen and move northward, that would improve our chances of strong cold shots.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Did some research last night since it seems quite likely we get a -1.0 - -1.5 ONI this winter. I looked at some of the analogs provided from the graphic on the previous page annnnnnd doesnt look good lol. As we expect, warm, dry, with some big cold shots. So there is hope.

Later i will look more into these years. Feel free to add more years if you want:

70-71
84-85
07-08
10-11

Any more?

[JDawg512]

Do we have a good indication of how strong it will be? Normally I'm pretty good about following Pacific cycles but have been pretty busy lately plus I tend to drop off during Niña phases. Also is the decadal still positive? If it is that can dampen niña's strength and shorten it.

Forecast for this week continues to be summer-like with low end chances for showers but more likely not.

I'm more interested in how the weather will be during the last weekend of September.

[Ntxw]

Do we have a good indication of how strong it will be? Normally I'm pretty good about following Pacific cycles but have been pretty busy lately plus I tend to drop off during Niña phases. Also is the decadal still positive? If it is that can dampen niña's strength and shorten it.

Forecast for this week continues to be summer-like with low end chances for showers but more likely not.

I'm more interested in how the weather will be during the last weekend of September.

JISAO PDO hasn't updated but NCDC has and it has gone negative. Correlation suggests JISAO will be negative as well so it will be the first break in the +PDO.

Of note, hurricane hits on the Atlantic side in the past has often been a precursor of oncoming drought period/years. I don't know if this period will follow that trend but I'd say odds are increasing during the next year or two.

Subsurface does not quite suggest a strong Nina, weak is most likely with moderate a low probability. Neutral has a distance chance as well. If we do end up a NIna then we will have had 2 back to back, hydrology interests should probably be on the lookout for falling water tables in the coming seasons.

[Yukon Cornelius]

By some luck, I pick up 1/4" of rain this evening out a nice stray storm.

[Brent]

GFS has a good front around day 9

Keep your fingers crossed

Looks like summer-like prevails til then... the rain chances this week have pretty much vanished.

[JDawg512]

Do we have a good indication of how strong it will be? Normally I'm pretty good about following Pacific cycles but have been pretty busy lately plus I tend to drop off during Niña phases. Also is the decadal still positive? If it is that can dampen niña's strength and shorten it.

Forecast for this week continues to be summer-like with low end chances for showers but more likely not.

I'm more interested in how the weather will be during the last weekend of September.

JISAO PDO hasn't updated but NCDC has and it has gone negative. Correlation suggests JISAO will be negative as well so it will be the first break in the +PDO.

Of note, hurricane hits on the Atlantic side in the past has often been a precursor of oncoming drought period/years. I don't know if this period will follow that trend but I'd say odds are increasing during the next year or two.

Subsurface does not quite suggest a strong Nina, weak is most likely with moderate a low probability. Neutral has a distance chance as well. If we do end up a NIna then we will have had 2 back to back, hydrology interests should probably be on the lookout for falling water tables in the coming seasons.

You know I was just thinking about tropical systems hitting with drought occurring after earlier today. I think it was Hermine that was followed by the horrible drought in 2011 of course coupled with a strong La Niña.

I would assume that this negative period in the PDO is temporary considering that we haven't been in the positive phase for very long plus the oceans world wide continue to warm. What it means for ocean currents/wind patterns moving into mid century remains to be seen but for the time being, I expect this winter won't be my favorite. Heck this Autumn is not going to be a good one IMO.

Needless to say this Rain Miser is going to be very grumpy so heads up everyone.

[Ntxw]

Things do look bleak the next 7 days. After a cool start and cool August, Sept has reverted back to the high and dry feel. Still slighty below normal but will be erased next few days. After that the month will be coming to an end probably above normal as a whole.

Through 18 days of the month DFW has picked up a meager 0.07" of rain.

[South Texas Storms]

Seeing signs of some increasing rain chances in the 8-14 day time period based on the latest operational models and ensembles. Looks like a slow-moving trough across the Rockies southward into Mexico. If we can get it to move far enough east to tap into the Gulf moisture, we could see some beneficial rainfall from this system.

[Tireman4]

GFS has a good front around day 9

Keep your fingers crossed

Looks like summer-like prevails til then... the rain chances this week have pretty much vanished.

Day 9, October 1st?

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Ntx, you're so right. I also was thinking that, not only did the MJO help kick these storms off, but the cooler pacific means less shear in the atlantic region.

This winter could be brutal.

[Ntxw]

Ntx, you're so right. I also was thinking that, not only did the MJO help kick these storms off, but the cooler pacific means less shear in the atlantic region.

This winter could be brutal.

Yeah SST's are not the most preferred but as you mentioned as long as 1+2 remains cooler than 3.4 and 4 we could make it work. Another good thing is far too early and things could and will likely change before December.

[Brent]

Not texas but our weather sucks so

Yet another Cat 5 in the atlantic maria has a pinhole eye

[Ptarmigan]

Great info aggiecutter.

We've been bandying about the whole Niña thing in the Texas Winter thread also. We've had several nice winter weather events in Austin during Niña winters. The last time it snowed here was during a Niña winter (2011).

I just went back and looked more closely at the graph that I posted earlier. Nearly all the years where there was a strong to moderately strong La Nina, the Texarkana area was the recipient of some sort of major winter weather event. 1973- major ice storm in January. 1989- Frigid cold in December. 2000- 2 major winter storms and a catastrophic ice-storm. 2011- on two occasions in January, Texarkana received 6" of snow, and a 4" snowfall the first week of February. As Ryan Maue posted yesterday, there is a correlation between strong to moderately strong La Ninas and severe winter weather.

I would take that even further and say there is also a correlation between extreme weather events and La Ninas. In 2011, there was the Dixie Alley Tornado outbreak in April, the devastating Joplin tornado in May, and the record breaking heat-drought in the southern plains that summer.

1972-1973 was a super El Nino. 1989-1990 was neutral. We do tend to get some powerful spells of cold if the dam does open in moderate to strong Ninas but overall the winters as a whole are above average. Hence we had a strong blast of cold early January (despite the warmest winter on record) just this past Nina.

La Nina winters have produced cold blasts. February 1895, February 1899, December 1924, January/February 1951, December 1983, February 1989, February 1996, and February 2011 occurred in La Nina. There were big ice storms in 1924, 1951, and 1989. There big snowstorm in 1895. 1899 produced epic freeze.

La Nina is not the only factor. There is also North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Arctic Oscillation (AO), Pacific-North America (PNA), East Pacific Oscillation (EPO), and West Pacific Oscillation (WPO). I also look at Pacific Decadal Oscillation and Gulf of Alaska.

[Ptarmigan]

wasn't Christmas 1989 also a la nina? The last time Dallas got below zero?

It may not be that cold overall but there may be a lot more extremes on both ends

If we just get one solid winter storm it'd be an improvement over the last 2 winters.

I think the key is to keep them weak, the strong el nino doomed us, a weak la nina would be a lot better than something strong

according to this the infamous winter of 83-84 was also weak la nina the longest time Dallas has ever been below freezing

http://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm

1989 was Neutral. The previous winter of 1988-1989 was La Nina.

The rest of the winter from January to February 1990 was mild.