Texas Fall 2017

[Ntxw]

Fall equinox is this Friday evident by later sunrise and earlier sunset. Nights will shortly be longer than days!

Pattern is still blasé this week. Looks to improve a little next week with the western half of the state cooler/active than the eastern half.

[texas1836]

I just went back and looked more closely at the graph that I posted earlier. Nearly all the years where there was a strong to moderately strong La Nina, the Texarkana area was the recipient of some sort of major winter weather event. 1973- major ice storm in January. 1989- Frigid cold in December. 2000- 2 major winter storms and a catastrophic ice-storm. 2011- on two occasions in January, Texarkana received 6" of snow, and a 4" snowfall the first week of February. As Ryan Maue posted yesterday, there is a correlation between strong to moderately strong La Ninas and severe winter weather.

I would take that even further and say there is also a correlation between extreme weather events and La Ninas. In 2011, there was the Dixie Alley Tornado outbreak in April, the devastating Joplin tornado in May, and the record breaking heat-drought in the southern plains that summer.

1972-1973 was a super El Nino. 1989-1990 was neutral. We do tend to get some powerful spells of cold if the dam does open in moderate to strong Ninas but overall the winters as a whole are above average. Hence we had a strong blast of cold early January (despite the warmest winter on record) just this past Nina.

La Nina winters have produced cold blasts. February 1895, February 1899, December 1924, January/February 1951, December 1983, February 1989, February 1996, and February 2011 occurred in La Nina. There were big ice storms in 1924, 1951, and 1989. There big snowstorm in 1895. 1899 produced epic freeze.

La Nina is not the only factor. There is also North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Arctic Oscillation (AO), Pacific-North America (PNA), East Pacific Oscillation (EPO), and West Pacific Oscillation (WPO). I also look at Pacific Decadal Oscillation and Gulf of Alaska.

I like the way you sound!!!

[Portastorm]

Just looked over the next 15 days per the Euro and GFS for south central Texas. You want to talk about downright depressing ... little if any rain. No sign of cooler air, really.

[dhweather]

Just looked over the next 15 days per the Euro and GFS for south central Texas. You want to talk about downright depressing ... little if any rain. No sign of cooler air, really.

You would be correct, sir.

[Tireman4]

Just looked over the next 15 days per the Euro and GFS for south central Texas. You want to talk about downright depressing ... little if any rain. No sign of cooler air, really.

Man, that is not good. Goodness...like Browns football..no wait..I am sorry..not like Indians baseball...which is hot right now sir.

[weatherdude1108]

Just looked over the next 15 days per the Euro and GFS for south central Texas. You want to talk about downright depressing ... little if any rain. No sign of cooler air, really.

Man, that is not good. Goodness...like Browns football..no wait..I am sorry..not like Indians baseball...which is hot right now sir.

Like the Indian Summer that won't leave.

[weatherdude1108]

Well, I just washed and waxed both mine and Mrs. Weatherdude1108s cars, so it's gotta rain soon based on that, right?

[Tireman4]

Saw a V formation of birds flying south this morning..something is coming...eventually...

[gboudx]

And I've seen some monarch butterflies as well. So, the change of seasons is coming. Just not soon enough for us.

[Portastorm]

:uarrow: And I've seen some monarch butterflies as well. So, the change of seasons is coming. Just not soon enough for us.

When the heat index is 103 degrees at 3 pm and I walk to my Starbucks, two blocks, sweating profusely and see ads inside about it being Autumn and try a Pumpkin Spice Latte ... etc. ... well, it's surreal. LOL.

I'm so ready for fall and winter. I swear if we get another blowtorch Nina ... I may have to retire early and convince Mrs. Portastorm it's time to move to a cooler clime.

[Tireman4]

:uarrow: And I've seen some monarch butterflies as well. So, the change of seasons is coming. Just not soon enough for us.

When the heat index is 103 degrees at 3 pm and I walk to my Starbucks, two blocks, sweating profusely and see ads inside about it being Autumn and try a Pumpkin Spice Latte ... etc. ... well, it's surreal. LOL.

I'm so ready for fall and winter. I swear if we get another blowtorch Nina ... I may have to retire early and convince Mrs. Portastorm it's time to move to a cooler clime.

Go Browns...I mean..cough...go Winter..and Champ the Charger!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Yukon Cornelius]

:uarrow: And I've seen some monarch butterflies as well. So, the change of seasons is coming. Just not soon enough for us.

When the heat index is 103 degrees at 3 pm and I walk to my Starbucks, two blocks, sweating profusely and see ads inside about it being Autumn and try a Pumpkin Spice Latte ... etc. ... well, it's surreal. LOL.

I'm so ready for fall and winter. I swear if we get another blowtorch Nina ... I may have to retire early and convince Mrs. Portastorm it's time to move to a cooler clime.

I hear ya. I live in a historically chilly to cold part of the state during winter and the last few years its been hard to tell the difference in summer and winter. Our seasons have trended to Summer, Summer 2.0, Summer 3.0 and iffy Fall.

[Ntxw]

DFW hit 98 today...knew it was too good to be true that summer ended early.

[Brent]

DFW hit 98 today...knew it was too good to be true that summer ended early.

I really hate Texas weather. It just feels like summer never ends then we barely get a winter and then it repeats

[Ntxw]

Euro has cold front, and much cooler air at the end of its run

[srainhoutx]

Euro has cold front, and much cooler air at the end of its run

The Euro suggests temperatures near what we experienced with the front that arrived after Harvey. Lows in the 50's to 60's and highs in the 70's to low 80's.

[Tireman4]

Euro has cold front, and much cooler air at the end of its run

The Euro suggests temperatures near what we experienced with the front that arrived after Harvey. Lows in the 50's to 60's and highs in the 70's to low 80's.

The end of the 10 day period?

[Ntxw]

Euro has cold front, and much cooler air at the end of its run

The Euro suggests temperatures near what we experienced with the front that arrived after Harvey. Lows in the 50's to 60's and highs in the 70's to low 80's.

The end of the 10 day period?

Next weekend, last days of September and early October

[Tireman4]

The Euro suggests temperatures near what we experienced with the front that arrived after Harvey. Lows in the 50's to 60's and highs in the 70's to low 80's.

The end of the 10 day period?

Next weekend, last days of September and early October

Got it..yeah Srain posted his forecast on the KHOU Weatherboard...just got it...Maybe this will be the front to finally sweep those persistent SE winds out....

[weatherdude1108]

More encouraging. It would be almost exactly a month since we got rain from Harvey. Too long, especially for the second wettest month of the year climatologically.

000
FXUS64 KEWX 200747
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
247 AM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017

.SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday)...
Isolated to scattered showers and few thunderstorms are possible
across the coastal plains this afternoon as courtesy of the
seabreeze. Also, isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible
across the far northwest of the area late this afternoon and early
evening as a mid short-wave disturbance moves from west into
central Texas. Otherwise, the rest of the region remains dry and
warm with highs in the mid 90s most locations. Similar weather
conditions are expected on Thursday with better coverage of isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms along and east of Interstate
35 as a result on a mid-level inverted trough pushing westward from
the upper Texas coast into our area.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday Night through Tuesday)...
Not a whole lot of activity expected for the latter part of the work
week into the weekend with the exception of isolated to scattered
showers and few storms along the coastal plains. The weather
pattern begins to change Sunday into the first part of next week
with rain expected across all of South Central Texas during this
period. Increased moisture arriving from the Gulf of Mexico and
eastern Pacific in combination with a frontal boundary pushing down
into our area will result in widespread rains during the extended
forecast period. The GFS and ECM models have a fair idea where the
rain will fall, but differ on the position of the frontal
boundary/lifting mechanism. With that said, the extended forecast
will be monitored and updated accordingly to reflect latest guidance
solutions and the possibility of heavy rains especially along the Rio
Grande and Edwards Plateau.


Isolated showers and storms will be primarily located across the eastern half of the area during the afternoon and early evening hours Tuesday through the weekend. Better opportunities for rainfall are forecast to develop over South Central Texas early next week.