All eyes will be on the large upper level trough as it trudges
eastward towards the middle part of the country. Forcing for
ascent will remain west of the forecast area this weekend, but
will begin to affect the western counties of North Texas early in
the workweek. Chance POPs are in place west of I-35/35 W late
Monday and Tuesday. The persistent slow but steady eastward
progression of the trough will spread strong ascent slowly
eastward, causing an increase in showers and storms across the
central and eastern portions of the forecast area late Tuesday
and Wednesday.
The upper level system will be accompanied by a cold front, which
could locally enhance rain rates as it provides additional focus
for development. The front is currently progged to push steadily
southeastward across the region late Tuesday and Wednesday,
eventually clearing the southeast counties sometime Thursday.
Though it`s still early on in the forecast, the current thinking
is that instability and shear will be sufficient for a few strong
storms, but the severe threat appears pretty low. The bigger
concern may turn to locally heavy rainfall and the potential for
flooding. Tropical moisture will surge northward late Tuesday,
with fairly widespread 2" PWATs by Wednesday. Additional moisture
pooling along the surface boundary could create a narrow swath of
2.25" PWATs along the front as it pushes through Wednesday into
Thursday. Fortunately, the region has dried out significantly due
to the lack of any appreciable rain this month. That said, the
possibility of heavy rain will be something to keep an eye on as
we head for the middle of next week.
The upper level trough and cold front will progress east of the
forecast area late next week, which should hopefully bring more
comfortable early Fall weather by next weekend.
That's an area of the state that has by and large missed most of the big rains from 2015, 2016, and parts of 2017.
