Texas Fall 2017

[weatherdude1108]

It's getting to the point where we don't even have other seasons

Oct is already 8.4F above normal. Lows have been the real killer. Barring some major volcanic eruption 2017 could be another top 5 warmest year, August was just a blip. The number of above normal months since 2010 is unreal

Unfortunately, warmer than normal is becoming the norm. IIRC, Fall didn't really start until about mid-November last year. Soon, the trees will start the process of dropping leaves. It's weird seeing the leaves turn colors and it's still warm. Colorful leaves evoke expectations of cool weather, not warm/hot.

Yeah, my crape myrtle tree leaves have started dropping leaves and turning colors. They were fully blooming a few weeks ago. They thrive in hot weather with regular rains, but I guess they are responding to longer nights and slightly "cooler" (less hot) temps, and have very few flowers now, dropping periodic red/orange leaves. Gives me hope for cooler weather. My sister n law just moved to Michigan from Katy. She said some of the trees are showing fall full blown foliage. I'm jealous!

[TheProfessor]

We're getting rain from a tropical system for the third time this fall. We got a little bit more of a Trace from Harvey, about a half an inch of rain from Irma, and now we will likely finish somewhere between 1-2 inches of rain from Nate. It's been dry here otherwise, ended up breaking a streak of 20 days without rain on Thursday. If it weren't for the tropical systems this fall it would have been extremely dry(which actually isn't too unusual for Ohio as it is the driest part of the year until Late October.)

[Ntxw]

Ensembles show a nearly stationary raised (ridge) heights in our vicinty through third week of Oct.

[Brent]

Maybe by Halloween it will cool off for more than a day

[bubba hotep]

Looks like we are going for the 4th straight hot October... I haven't even bothered to look at any analogs or teleconnections, since the last few years it has been, "what ever you think might happen, just pick the warmest option and that will be right"

Maybe we can pull a storm out tomorrow evening. NAM 3k is at least somewhat encouraging for those east of I35 in DFW.

[Ntxw]

Hot day, then dramatically cooler tonight.

In other news the weekly ENSO reading is a dead even 0C. Not enough for La Nina and has been warmer than prior weeks. ERRSTv5 is not as friendly to the Nina compared to ERSSTv4. We likely could end up neutral which opens up more analogs.

[bubba hotep]

Woo hoo... Marg extended southward to the northern burbs.

[bubba hotep]

TXTech WRF agress with SPC but the 3k NAM is bit more generous

[gboudx]

I see the model says, "19 H". I assume that's 19 hour, but is that the equivalent of 7pm, or is it something else? Trying to get a read on when that is being forecasted.

[Ntxw]

I see the model says, "19 H". I assume that's 19 hour, but is that the equivalent of 7pm, or is it something else? Trying to get a read on when that is being forecasted.

01 utc is 7pm our time

Correction 8pm (I am thinking winter mode after time change )

[gboudx]

Ok thanks. My youngest son has soccer practice at 6:30 so I'll be watching the radar, and trends.

[Ntxw]

It may come through dry also but usually there is at least some in the eastern counties.

Tomorrow is going to feel wonderful. Give that AC a break.

[JDawg512]

Oct is already 8.4F above normal. Lows have been the real killer. Barring some major volcanic eruption 2017 could be another top 5 warmest year, August was just a blip. The number of above normal months since 2010 is unreal

Unfortunately, warmer than normal is becoming the norm. IIRC, Fall didn't really start until about mid-November last year. Soon, the trees will start the process of dropping leaves. It's weird seeing the leaves turn colors and it's still warm. Colorful leaves evoke expectations of cool weather, not warm/hot.

Yeah, my crape myrtle tree leaves have started dropping leaves and turning colors. They were fully blooming a few weeks ago. They thrive in hot weather with regular rains, but I guess they are responding to longer nights and slightly "cooler" (less hot) temps, and have very few flowers now, dropping periodic red/orange leaves. Gives me hope for cooler weather. My sister n law just moved to Michigan from Katy. She said some of the trees are showing fall full blown foliage. I'm jealous!

Your Crape Myrtle is losing leaves right now because it has a fungus along with mine and many across the region. This particular type of fungus is prevalent after especially heavy rain events and is the result of Harvey. No worries as the fungus should be gone by this coming up Spring but what I would suggest you do is rake up the dropped leaves and get rid of them. That helps lessen its spread to trees that are not being affected by it.

[weatherdude1108]

Unfortunately, warmer than normal is becoming the norm. IIRC, Fall didn't really start until about mid-November last year. Soon, the trees will start the process of dropping leaves. It's weird seeing the leaves turn colors and it's still warm. Colorful leaves evoke expectations of cool weather, not warm/hot.

Yeah, my crape myrtle tree leaves have started dropping leaves and turning colors. They were fully blooming a few weeks ago. They thrive in hot weather with regular rains, but I guess they are responding to longer nights and slightly "cooler" (less hot) temps, and have very few flowers now, dropping periodic red/orange leaves. Gives me hope for cooler weather. My sister n law just moved to Michigan from Katy. She said some of the trees are showing fall full blown foliage. I'm jealous!

Your Crape Myrtle is losing leaves right now because it has a fungus along with mine and many across the region. This particular type of fungus is prevalent after especially heavy rain events and is the result of Harvey. No worries as the fungus should be gone by this coming up Spring but what I would suggest you do is rake up the dropped leaves and get rid of them. That helps lessen its spread to trees that are not being affected by it.

Ok. Thanks for the tip!

[dhweather]

Need a freeze to kill ragweed. Some rain would be nice.

[weatherdude1108]

Need a freeze to kill ragweed. Some rain would be nice.

I think the Harvey rains made the Ragweed explode down here. My nose and sinuses have been stuffed.

[Tejas89]

Record hi at DFW today (96). woo-hoo.

[bubba hotep]

Cold front is moving into the western portions of DFW but, don't worry, the heat will be back next weekend

[Brent]

Cold front is moving into the western portions of DFW but, don't worry, the heat will be back next weekend

It never ends apparently. Thats all it ever is around here

[bubba hotep]

SPC coming strong with the 5% MCD but radar is looking rather bleak at the moment...