Texas Fall 2017

[Brent]

More storms behind the front than ahead/along it...

[gpsnowman]

Just woke up from my coma and it is pouring rain at 60 degrees. Finally a cold front with a little rain. Ok, time to go.to work.

[Ntxw]

56 degrees at DFW this morning. Beautiful.

Also from 96 to 56 is a 40F drop in less than 24 hours.

[Yukon Cornelius]

48 this morning with a wind chill of 41. Tomorrow morning ive seen it forecasted from 39-41 for a low. Awesome weather! Too bad it looks to warm back up by the weekend.

[Ntxw]

48 this morning with a wind chill of 41. Tomorrow morning ive seen it forecasted from 39-41 for a low. Awesome weather! Too bad it looks to warm back up by the weekend.

Unfortunately. But it should be just a weekend ordeal, early next week returns to normal it seems with 70s.

[weatherdude1108]

63 degrees at the house! Breezy! Highs in the 70s the next couple days. Love it!

[Tireman4]

48 this morning with a wind chill of 41. Tomorrow morning ive seen it forecasted from 39-41 for a low. Awesome weather! Too bad it looks to warm back up by the weekend.

Unfortunately. But it should be just a weekend ordeal, early next week returns to normal it seems with 70s.

If we can get the cool downs on a regular basis, it will make October tolerable..

[Tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 101025
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
525 AM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017

.DISCUSSION...
The cold front appears to be making its way into SE TX this morn-
ing...with the wind shift about an hour or so ahead of the actual
colder air. Most of the precipitation associated with this bound-
ary is also lagging well behind it given the current radar trends
so far this morning. Shower and isolated thunderstorm development
is expected to become more widespread through the morning as this
front makes its way toward the coast. Much deeper moisture/higher
PWs just offshore should fuel stronger activity as the cold front
moves into the Gulf late this afternoon/early this evening.

Much cooler temps (than it has been of late) progged for the next
day or so, but the building upper ridge from the east could bring
about the return of above normal temps starting Thurs on into the
weekend. Despite the strong upper ridging...rain chances could re-
turn Fri/Sat as a deepening easterly flow helps to draw in a slug
of some much deeper tropical moisture across the northern Gulf of
Mexico (under the ridge). Extended guidance hinting that the next
cold front is slated for late Sun/early next Mon. 41

&&


.MARINE...
Cold front marching southward and prefrontal trough near the coast.
Expect the winds over the coastal waters to weaken this morning
before the front moves off the coast then ramp up to 15-20 knots
with gusts near 25 knots. SCEC for Matagorda Bay and Gulf waters.
Winds remain elevated through Wednesday morning then relax. This
northerly wind will finally draw down our extended period of
elevated tides. At 3 am tides were still running 1 to 1.5 feet above
normal. By late afternoon should be back near normal with the
outgoing tide.
45
&&

.Aviation...
CIGS and VISBY dropping ahead of the prefrontal trough with some
areas down into LIFR to VLIFR. These conditions should improve
rapidly as front moves through and MVFR CIGS of 1500-2500ft should
prevail by 14-15z through mid afternoon. Winds becoming north-
northwest 10-15kts and gusty after FROPA...and a little moreso with
daytime heating. Mid afternoon expecting breaks to develop in MVFR
CIGS and gradual clearing.

Precip chances looking fairly slim over most of the northern half of
the area. Closer to the coast mainly HOU southward thinking rain
chances much higher and VCSH to TEMPO in order for coverage of
showers and a few thunderstorms between 13-18z.
45
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 76 58 80 61 87 / 30 0 10 10 10
Houston (IAH) 82 63 80 63 86 / 40 10 10 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 84 70 80 72 85 / 60 20 10 10 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION through Wednesday morning
for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
the Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
High Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to
the Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
High Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

[Ntxw]

48 this morning with a wind chill of 41. Tomorrow morning ive seen it forecasted from 39-41 for a low. Awesome weather! Too bad it looks to warm back up by the weekend.

Unfortunately. But it should be just a weekend ordeal, early next week returns to normal it seems with 70s.

If we can get the cool downs on a regular basis, it will make October tolerable..

Yes! Eventually cooler air will win (relative). Anything beats last October's obnoxious warmth. It was still going 90s the last 2 weeks...

[Cerlin]

I don't know too much about weather, but what I do know is that my tile bathroom floor is cold, and when it's cold, that means it's chilly outside! First time it has felt cold in about 6 months, what a welcome feeling!

[bubba hotep]

48 this morning with a wind chill of 41. Tomorrow morning ive seen it forecasted from 39-41 for a low. Awesome weather! Too bad it looks to warm back up by the weekend.

Unfortunately. But it should be just a weekend ordeal, early next week returns to normal it seems with 70s.

The cold front next week looks a little stronger and might bring the 1st 40s to DFW. Then another weekend rebound followed by another progressively stronger front. So maybe an actual fall pattern is setting in? Also, there appears to actually be some cold air in western Canada. Some of the long range guidance points to that being a theme for this winter. Last couple of winters have sucked so bad because western Canada has been so warm. Even when we would get a good pattern there was no cold air to tap.

[Ntxw]

I think the pattern may be hinting for winter. Strong SE ridge and cold in the NW parts of the continent (Nina). We kind of split the two with excursions from both. If there is strong -NAO/AO block then the cold may be allowed to bleed more our way but thats not easily predictable. I feel a lot better about this winter than last because we are not going back and forth between Nino and Nina patterns, but rather mostly Nina. I know the fears of Ninas but NW Canada really does get really cold with a true Nina. As long as we avoid the Ninoesque blasting Pacific jet we should be alright.

Bubba is right this pattern favors laying down snow in NW and W Canada.

[gboudx]

Walking the dog today, I noticed the Elm and Pecan trees in my hood are starting to yellow. The hackberries behind my house are as well. Not full blown color, or leaves dropping, but the process appears to have started. Shorter days, longer nights will induce this. Now, the ragweed and grass need to follow.

[Cpv17]

I feel as if I’m the only one on here that doesn’t really care for cold weather, mainly because when fronts start coming and it changes from warm to cold, I start getting sick. During the warmer months, I’m rarely, if ever sick. Plus, I have a higher tolerance to the heat than I do the cold. Probably because I’ve lived in SE TX my whole life and that’s just what I’m used to. I’m an outdoorsy type of person and when it’s cold out there all I wanna do is stay in the house so it limits my outdoor activities. The way I look at it is if it’s going to get cold, then it needs to snow because otherwise it’s just good for nothing. I’m fine with the 50’s, but anything colder than that is a no go for me unless it snows. I’m saying all this, but then when we get Artic blasts I still get excited for them, which I know doesn’t make much sense considering what I just said. I’m just the type of person that gets excited for any type of extreme weather event. It’s part of being a weather enthusiast, I suppose. I just wish I wouldn’t get sick 3 or 4 times every winter.

[weatherdude1108]

I feel as if I’m the only one on here that doesn’t really care for cold weather, mainly because when fronts start coming and it changes from warm to cold, I start getting sick. During the warmer months, I’m rarely, if ever sick. Plus, I have a higher tolerance to the heat than I do the cold. Probably because I’ve lived in SE TX my whole life and that’s just what I’m used to. I’m an outdoorsy type of person and when it’s cold out there all I wanna do is stay in the house so it limits my outdoor activities. The way I look at it is if it’s going to get cold, then it needs to snow because otherwise it’s just good for nothing. I’m fine with the 50’s, but anything colder than that is a no go for me unless it snows. I’m saying all this, but then when we get Artic blasts I still get excited for them, which I know doesn’t make much sense considering what I just said. I’m just the type of person that gets excited for any type of extreme weather event. It’s part of being a weather enthusiast, I suppose. I just wish I wouldn’t get sick 3 or 4 times every winter.

I have the opposite problem to an extent. I tend to get sick when the weather starts getting warmer (off of being relatively cold during late Winter). Like clockwork. My tolerance for heat is much lower than for cold. There's a point where your birthday suit is all you have left with hot weather. Whereas with cold, you can put more layers on as it gets colder and huddle around the fire. All I want to do is hibernate in the house or building in the air conditioning when it is consistently in the 90s+ outside.

Plus, it seems like more people get irritable and drive crazier when it's consistently hot I've noticed. Not pleasant. I guess that can happen in extreme cold too. But yeah, it has to snow if it gets into the 30s, otherwise, it's wasted cold IMO. And we need regular thundershowers when it's hot.

[Ralph's Weather]

Very nice today with a high near 70. Tomorrow morning will likely see some mid 40s in cold spots with most everyone in N & E Tx below 55.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Very nice today with a high near 70. Tomorrow morning will likely see some mid 40s in cold spots with most everyone in N & E Tx below 55.

I'm hoping for the first low in the 30s up here! Ive seen a few forecasts of 39 and a few others from 40-41. Wish us luck!

[South Texas Storms]

The cooler temperatures feel nice, but I don't like this La Nina like pattern setting up. It's been quite dry lately, and unfortunately that looks to continue for at least the next week.

[Brent]

Man this air is a shock to the system it's been so long lol

I just turned on the heat in my car for a few minutes

[JDawg512]

The cooler temperatures feel nice, but I don't like this La Nina like pattern setting up. It's been quite dry lately, and unfortunately that looks to continue for at least the next week.

Agreed, I feel the same way. Starting to see that northerly shift in these troughs. This area has been lucky with a good amount of rain the past couple of weeks but we could be in for a long dry period if we keep seeing these dry fronts. Didn't get any rain from this front, the next front looks to be the same.

Honestly I would rather have warmer weather if it means a more southerly storm track, would be nice to have cooler weather but I would never trade my rain for it.