Texas Fall 2017

[bubba hotep]

Well, at least for today in my area, it has been a pretty low bust. The high busted way low yesterday and the original forecast low was 44 and it already down to 40.

[Ralph's Weather]

Made it down to 38 at my place. When i saw the clear skies and calm winds yesterday evening I had a feeling I'd see the 30s today.

[bubba hotep]

Euro has DFW pushing mid 80s again next Friday... I wouldn't be surprised to see 90 again the way things have been going.

[Tejas89]

I wouldn't be surprised to see 90 again the way things have been going.

Hope not. FWD doesn't have any 80's through the 7-day, and advertises a cold front next weekend.
Before this year, no 90+ days had been recorded in November. We've had 3 so far!

[Brent]

Euro has DFW pushing mid 80s again next Friday... I wouldn't be surprised to see 90 again the way things have been going.

I swear we better not

Record highs are 87 next Thursday/Friday, one set last year lol

[Ntxw]

GFS does show above normal before frontal passage next weekend. MId 70s to near 80 is above normal for it. Then it's becoming more apparent a significant front will come Thanksgiving week. Still slightly back and forth but the colder solutions have become more numerous. Perhaps highs in the 40s and 50s with lows in the 30s via said trof.

500mb with blocking over Northeastern Canada slows the jet stream and likely more fronts with brief warm ups in between thereafter. In truth, the pattern could look worse and it could be worse but doesn't look that bad. We've actually knocked down November's average quite a bit from where it was

[Ntxw]

All that ridging in the Northeast Pacific has warmed the GOA. We may not win the small battles in the short term, but the longer picture is optimistic. In due time it will pay off. 2013 in November the ridging up there and SST really coupled by late month leading to the false winter storm, and eventually cobblestone ice storm early December

[Ntxw]

18z GFS flips from the 12z (sorta) instead of ridge out west, big trough comes in the SW in that kind of pattern Thanksgiving week. Just to show the fluid nature of how a pattern change (blocking setting up) can cause some volatile model runs until said pattern settles. If indeed the blocking is true in Northeastern Canada

[Ntxw]

In other news,

Dry and some drought has quietly been spreading. Though this is not all of a surprise given we are moving into what may be a second dip Nina



Long long range, there are very few wet/cool 2nd year Nina summers. They are hot and dry for the most part. Lets hope we get winter this year before that comes in 2018. We haven't seen a truly hot summer since 2012. 2013-2017 had spells of it but nothing wall to wall.

[TheProfessor]

Whew, I don't think we got above freezing today and It's 24 degrees now. I really wish I lived in a lake effect zone though.

[starsfan65]

GFS does show above normal before frontal passage next weekend. MId 70s to near 80 is above normal for it. Then it's becoming more apparent a significant front will come Thanksgiving week. Still slightly back and forth but the colder solutions have become more numerous. Perhaps highs in the 40s and 50s with lows in the 30s via said trof.

500mb with blocking over Northeastern Canada slows the jet stream and likely more fronts with brief warm ups in between thereafter. In truth, the pattern could look worse and it could be worse but doesn't look that bad. We've actually knocked down November's average quite a bit from where it was

WFAA said we are going to be 1-2 degrees above normal on Thanksgiving.

[Brent]

GFS does show above normal before frontal passage next weekend. MId 70s to near 80 is above normal for it. Then it's becoming more apparent a significant front will come Thanksgiving week. Still slightly back and forth but the colder solutions have become more numerous. Perhaps highs in the 40s and 50s with lows in the 30s via said trof.

500mb with blocking over Northeastern Canada slows the jet stream and likely more fronts with brief warm ups in between thereafter. In truth, the pattern could look worse and it could be worse but doesn't look that bad. We've actually knocked down November's average quite a bit from where it was

WFAA said we are going to be 1-2 degrees above normal on Thanksgiving.

its still fantasy land but the weather apps so far are near normal(around 65/45), the GFS blasts a front through the night before Thanksgiving with near 80 on Wednesday and highs in the 50s on Thanksgiving but again this is fantasy land. There does seem to be signals of some kind of cold front close to Thanksgiving at least.

[aggiecutter]

Whew, I don't think we got above freezing today and It's 24 degrees now. I really wish I lived in a lake effect zone though.

Portastorm is well acquainted with the lake effect zone. In some winters, SW Austin gets up to 3-4 mm of freezing drizzle when there is a NW flow off of Lake Travis.

[bubba hotep]

lol... Massive Euro flip for Thanksgiving week. 00z had a big trough sagging into the Rockies looking to setup a cold shot. 12z has a firehouse off the Pacific flooding the west with warm air.

[starsfan65]

lol... Massive Euro flip for Thanksgiving week. 00z had a big trough sagging into the Rockies looking to setup a cold shot. 12z has a firehouse off the Pacific flooding the west with warm air.

What does that mean?

[Brent]

lol... Massive Euro flip for Thanksgiving week. 00z had a big trough sagging into the Rockies looking to setup a cold shot. 12z has a firehouse off the Pacific flooding the west with warm air.

What does that mean?

Wont be cold if that verifies seasonal at best and could be warm

Maybe we'll get a freeze by Christmas lol

[starsfan65]

lol... Massive Euro flip for Thanksgiving week. 00z had a big trough sagging into the Rockies looking to setup a cold shot. 12z has a firehouse off the Pacific flooding the west with warm air.

What does that mean?

Wont be cold if that verifies seasonal at best and could be warm

Maybe we'll get a freeze by Christmas lol

Don't give up hope!! Wait until the GFS comes out.

[Portastorm]

Whew, I don't think we got above freezing today and It's 24 degrees now. I really wish I lived in a lake effect zone though.

Portastorm is well acquainted with the lake effect zone. In some winters, SW Austin gets up to 3-4 mm of freezing drizzle when there is a NW flow off of Lake Travis.

Austin: The Freezing Drizzle Capital of Texas!

[Brent]

The gfs entire run is pretty much a torch no cold air at all

[starsfan65]

The gfs entire run is pretty much a torch no cold air at all

A torch?