STORM2K

Here ya go

Thank you Tireman4! Fall forecasts post away! General discussion will be open Sept 1st. No extended summers please. We'll most likely be in ENSO warm neutral for Sept-Nov

With the warmth trying to return has anyone seen any Fall outlooks or forecasts released yet? Better yet, any from reliable sources?

Yukon Cornelius wrote:With the warmth trying to return has anyone seen any Fall outlooks or forecasts released yet? Better yet, any from reliable sources?

Enso neutral is difficult to forecast which is why few have made attempts to predict fall. Going with decadal trends, above normal temps, near or below normal precip will be your best odds. That forecast hasn't faltered in almost 2 years, with precip being more volatile

Ntxw wrote:

Yukon Cornelius wrote:With the warmth trying to return has anyone seen any Fall outlooks or forecasts released yet? Better yet, any from reliable sources?

Enso neutral is difficult to forecast which is why few have made attempts to predict fall. Going with decadal trends, above normal temps, near or below normal precip will be your best odds. That forecast hasn't faltered in almost 2 years, with precip being more volatile

Is it usually the same for winter with it probably still being in ENSO neutral or do different variables come into play?

Yukon Cornelius wrote:

Ntxw wrote:

Yukon Cornelius wrote:With the warmth trying to return has anyone seen any Fall outlooks or forecasts released yet? Better yet, any from reliable sources?

Enso neutral is difficult to forecast which is why few have made attempts to predict fall. Going with decadal trends, above normal temps, near or below normal precip will be your best odds. That forecast hasn't faltered in almost 2 years, with precip being more volatile

Is it usually the same for winter with it probably still being in ENSO neutral or do different variables come into play?

Probably the same.

Ntxw wrote:

Yukon Cornelius wrote:

Ntxw wrote:
Enso neutral is difficult to forecast which is why few have made attempts to predict fall. Going with decadal trends, above normal temps, near or below normal precip will be your best odds. That forecast hasn't faltered in almost 2 years, with precip being more volatile

Is it usually the same for winter with it probably still being in ENSO neutral or do different variables come into play?

Probably the same.

Definitely not looking forward to a yet another possible warm winter.

Yukon Cornelius wrote:

Ntxw wrote:

Yukon Cornelius wrote:Is it usually the same for winter with it probably still being in ENSO neutral or do different variables come into play?

Probably the same.

Definitely not looking forward to a yet another possible warm winter.

Oh no no, I have not even looked at what winter will bring, uncertainty. What I meant was if you were forecasting 9/10 if you said warmer than normal you'd likely be right. Since 2010 for DFW only 2013-2014 has been below normal. 2014-2015 I think was near normal, the rest have been warmer

Ntxw wrote:

Yukon Cornelius wrote:

Ntxw wrote:
Probably the same.

Definitely not looking forward to a yet another possible warm winter.

Oh no no, I have not even looked at what winter will bring, uncertainty. What I meant was if you were forecasting 9/10 if you said warmer than normal you'd likely be right. Since 2010 for DFW only 2013-2014 has been below normal. 2014-2015 I think was near normal, the rest have been warmer

Gotcha. Thanks for the reply man.

looks like our first taste of fall could come late next week... maybe even some 50s in N TX...

Hmmmm....maybe I should buy firewood early then. I still have about 4 dozen sticks left from last Winter. Nice and seasoned.

GFS/Euro both have low 60s at DFW next Thursday/Friday and highs around 80, Euro actually had DFW in the 50s last night

Looks like fropa would be Wednesday

FWD


Early next week the overall upper air pattern looks to be largely
amplified as both deterministic and ensemble NWP both support
deep troughing across the east with a building ridge to the west.
In fact, both GEFS and EPS H5 anomalies indicate the presence of a
very deep trough (-30 to -36 meter height anomalies) out across
the Great Lakes region. This places North and Central TX in swift
northwesterly flow aloft and this will open the door for cooler
air to spill southward towards the region. The operational GFS is
a bit slower with the progression of the early week front, while
the operational ECMWF is a tad faster. For now, have sped up FROPA
a bit with the latest forecast closer to the ECMWF solution given
the signal from ensemble model output. This would place the front
through much of the area by day break Wednesday. There will be a
threat for showers and thunderstorms associated with the frontal
passage on Tuesday and Wednesday. Given that a majority of the
upper forcing still remains to the west, the threat for organized
thunderstorm modes appears unlikely as it stands right now. Decent
pressure rises across Oklahoma, however, should yield brisk north
winds in the wake of the front---appropriately ushering in cooler
and drier air coincident with the early beginnings of
Meteorological fall that occurs on September 1st.

0z Euro has multiple days next Wednesday-Friday where DFW may struggle to get out of the 70s

The early Sept Fallish-front in large part, will be a part of the large Pacific amplification ridge-trough pattern signaled by the re-curvature of Typhoon Sanvu

We've now crossed 00Z September 1st. Fall time!

still appears DFW will be on track for several days struggling to get out of the 70s and likely some 50s away from the metroplex starting Wednesday

Probably a cool breeze to go with it initially...

We've turned a corner guys...

Average high this month drops from 93 to 83!!!

Average low 73 to 62

Fall is here gang! And we have below normal temperatures coming with brisk, cool air



Oh and not to mention football is around the corner and the state fair!

Well, hello Fall! Summer, good riddance!

AHHHHH. The mornings the past few mornings have felt like Fall. Nice! High school and college football games right around the corner!