Texas Fall 2017

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Brent
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#941 Postby Brent » Wed Nov 15, 2017 4:55 pm

starsfan65 wrote:
Brent wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:
I'll go with a 60 degree swing at DFW from 12z.


Considering the 12z had temperatures colder than ever seen in November

Yeah I expect a wild swing. I don't see any support for an extreme cold solution.
Will it still be cool?


temps look pretty seasonal next week at worst which is still better than a lot of recent weeks.

the Friday record heat has also disappeared. Probably no warmer than today.
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#942 Postby starsfan65 » Wed Nov 15, 2017 4:57 pm

Brent wrote:
starsfan65 wrote:
Brent wrote:
Considering the 12z had temperatures colder than ever seen in November

Yeah I expect a wild swing. I don't see any support for an extreme cold solution.
Will it still be cool?


temps look pretty seasonal next week at worst which is still better than a lot of recent weeks.

the Friday record heat has also disappeared. Probably no warmer than today.

No 50's?
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#943 Postby Brent » Wed Nov 15, 2017 4:59 pm

starsfan65 wrote:
Brent wrote:
starsfan65 wrote:Will it still be cool?


temps look pretty seasonal next week at worst which is still better than a lot of recent weeks.

the Friday record heat has also disappeared. Probably no warmer than today.

No 50's?


we'll see... still a lot of uncertainty with how the Thanksgiving storm pans out. Could be 50s if it rains significantly.
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#944 Postby starsfan65 » Wed Nov 15, 2017 5:02 pm

Brent wrote:
starsfan65 wrote:
Brent wrote:
temps look pretty seasonal next week at worst which is still better than a lot of recent weeks.

the Friday record heat has also disappeared. Probably no warmer than today.

No 50's?


we'll see... still a lot of uncertainty with how the Thanksgiving storm pans out. Could be 50s if it rains significantly.
when is the storm supposed to get here?
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#945 Postby Brent » Wed Nov 15, 2017 5:06 pm

starsfan65 wrote:
Brent wrote:
starsfan65 wrote:No 50's?


we'll see... still a lot of uncertainty with how the Thanksgiving storm pans out. Could be 50s if it rains significantly.
when is the storm supposed to get here?


Tuesday Night still almost a week out
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#946 Postby CaptinCrunch » Wed Nov 15, 2017 5:10 pm

.LONG TERM...
/Friday Onward/

Models have come into much better agreement for the timing of the
Friday/Saturday front, giving increased confidence for this
forecast. Albeit, there are still some mesoscale factors that will
come into play such as eroding cloud cover.

Models show a strong moisture inflow from the south and southwest,
suggesting a slower erosion to cloud cover. This in turn will limit
the pre-frontal torch on Friday and keep some low POPs in the
forecast.

After the passage of the front, the weekend will see cooler drier
weather. Gusty winds will fill in behind the front on Saturday.

Tuesday may see some low chances for precip across our southern
counties as a shortwave passes just south of us, but the better
chances look to be on Tuesday and Wednesday. Both the ECMWF and
the GFS show some sort of system moving through midweek next week,
though they differ greatly on what that system looks like.
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#947 Postby starsfan65 » Wed Nov 15, 2017 5:20 pm

CaptinCrunch wrote:
.LONG TERM...
/Friday Onward/

Models have come into much better agreement for the timing of the
Friday/Saturday front, giving increased confidence for this
forecast. Albeit, there are still some mesoscale factors that will
come into play such as eroding cloud cover.

Models show a strong moisture inflow from the south and southwest,
suggesting a slower erosion to cloud cover. This in turn will limit
the pre-frontal torch on Friday and keep some low POPs in the
forecast.

After the passage of the front, the weekend will see cooler drier
weather. Gusty winds will fill in behind the front on Saturday.

Tuesday may see some low chances for precip across our southern
counties as a shortwave passes just south of us, but the better
chances look to be on Tuesday and Wednesday. Both the ECMWF and
the GFS show some sort of system moving through midweek next week,
though they differ greatly on what that system looks like.
I don't see the storm system on this run.
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#948 Postby Brent » Wed Nov 15, 2017 5:22 pm

The GFS/Euro continue to be light years apart in a week... the Euro has 3" of rain at DFW, the GFS has basically zero rain...

Highs well into the 60s on Thanksgiving on the GFS maybe pushing 70
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#949 Postby starsfan65 » Wed Nov 15, 2017 5:24 pm

Brent wrote:The GFS/Euro continue to be light years apart in a week... the Euro has 3" of rain at DFW, the GFS has basically zero rain...

Highs well into the 60s on Thanksgiving on the GFS
I knew it!! It will be warm Thanksgiving!!
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#950 Postby Brent » Wed Nov 15, 2017 5:25 pm

GFS is gonna be much warmer after Thanksgiving too... not surprising
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#951 Postby starsfan65 » Wed Nov 15, 2017 5:26 pm

Brent wrote:GFS is gonna be much warmer after Thanksgiving too... not surprising
NO!! NO!! NO!! NO!!!!!!!!!!!!!How much warmer?
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#952 Postby starsfan65 » Wed Nov 15, 2017 5:33 pm

I hope it is a bad run.
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#953 Postby Brent » Wed Nov 15, 2017 5:33 pm

the arctic blast in the plains at 12z is replaced by a megatorch almost to Canada

Now this is believable. :roflmao:

instead of teens there are 70s this run
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#954 Postby starsfan65 » Wed Nov 15, 2017 5:39 pm

Brent wrote:the arctic blast in the plains at 12z is replaced by a megatorch almost to Canada

Now this is believable. :roflmao:

instead of teens there are 70s this run
I Hate warm weather!!
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#955 Postby starsfan65 » Wed Nov 15, 2017 6:05 pm

You can't trust forecast models over 5 days out.
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#956 Postby starsfan65 » Wed Nov 15, 2017 6:28 pm

starsfan65 wrote:You can't trust forecast models over 5 days out.
Every local stations has temps in the 50's on Thanksgiving.
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#957 Postby gpsnowman » Wed Nov 15, 2017 10:12 pm

https://youtu.be/A__OujlO-8o

When Cheswick learned about the difference between the 12z and 18z.
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#958 Postby starsfan65 » Wed Nov 15, 2017 10:45 pm

The 0z GFS is up and running!!! I hope we a different outcome than the 18z!!
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#959 Postby Brent » Wed Nov 15, 2017 11:20 pm

never ceases to amaze me how the GFS can totally lose cold air...

gonna be even warmer on Thanksgiving than the 18z. If we get much warmer we can go for a record high :roll:
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#960 Postby starsfan65 » Wed Nov 15, 2017 11:40 pm

Brent wrote:never ceases to amaze me how the GFS can totally lose cold air...

gonna be even warmer on Thanksgiving than the 18z. If we get much warmer we can go for a record high :roll:
How can they lose the cold air so quickly?
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