Texas Fall 2017

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bubba hotep
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#981 Postby bubba hotep » Thu Nov 16, 2017 3:25 pm

Ntxw wrote:
CaptinCrunch wrote:For the month of November we have climbed up to +5.4 for the monthly average. Models are all over the place as Ntxw stated, nothing is concrete as far next week goes, but I will take normal temps over above any day of the week.


Its been really hard to overcome these fast above normal starts. DFW is outnumbering cool months with warm months 12:1 since 2015. That is an unfathomable number. And we thought the warmer months in the 2000s 2:1 was wicked, small compared to now.


It really is crazy. Also, I believe we have probably shattered records for the least amount of record lows durung that timeframe. I was thinking we would start to see a global step down post super nino but temps just spiked again in October.
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#982 Postby CaptinCrunch » Thu Nov 16, 2017 3:55 pm

bubba hotep wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
CaptinCrunch wrote:For the month of November we have climbed up to +5.4 for the monthly average. Models are all over the place as Ntxw stated, nothing is concrete as far next week goes, but I will take normal temps over above any day of the week.


Its been really hard to overcome these fast above normal starts. DFW is outnumbering cool months with warm months 12:1 since 2015. That is an unfathomable number. And we thought the warmer months in the 2000s 2:1 was wicked, small compared to now.


It really is crazy. Also, I believe we have probably shattered records for the least amount of record lows durung that timeframe. I was thinking we would start to see a global step down post super nino but temps just spiked again in October.


Exactly, Super El Nino was more than just a once in 50 year event, it has had lingering effects on the global weather patterns. I think it's one reason why the upper level winds have remained warm for the last 24 months, and it may take another year before we see any global step down in temps. I still don't see this winter being as warm as last winter, and while we my not see the average number of freezes (33) here in NTX, we will see more than the (14) we got last winter.
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#983 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Thu Nov 16, 2017 4:16 pm

What the heck kind of a system does the Euro put into the GOM next week? Not sure i recall seeing something like that.
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#984 Postby Tireman4 » Thu Nov 16, 2017 4:34 pm

TeamPlayersBlue wrote:What the heck kind of a system does the Euro put into the GOM next week? Not sure i recall seeing something like that.



Cat 5 in the Gulf?
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#985 Postby weatherdude1108 » Thu Nov 16, 2017 4:57 pm

Tireman4 wrote:
TeamPlayersBlue wrote:What the heck kind of a system does the Euro put into the GOM next week? Not sure i recall seeing something like that.



Cat 5 in the Gulf?


Frontogenesis-related closed low over the Gulf? If it were September on a decaying stationary front in the Gulf, I'd be more interested in it.

Model "burp"
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#986 Postby Brent » Thu Nov 16, 2017 5:25 pm

The CPC map is ugly... above normal probs to close out November

Maybe some year things will change around here
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#987 Postby bubba hotep » Thu Nov 16, 2017 10:20 pm

Euro Weeklies control run looks like it has a really big snowstorm. It looks 09/10sih with snow starting in Texas then in a swath across the SE towards a big Noreaster. Outside of that, the mean is torchy looking for all of Dec...

Edit: 2nd half of Dec might not be all bad, some signs of a better pattern.
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#988 Postby Brent » Fri Nov 17, 2017 12:43 am

bubba hotep wrote:Euro Weeklies control run looks like it has a really big snowstorm. It looks 09/10sih with snow starting in Texas then in a swath across the SE towards a big Noreaster. Outside of that, the mean is torchy looking for all of Dec...

Edit: 2nd half of Dec might not be all bad, some signs of a better pattern.


I saw that posted elsewhere, it was valid for Christmas Eve of all days(the end of it east of here anyway).. :roll: :lol:

The 0z GFS is so boring, no real rain, nothing extreme on temps, but at least, there's no 80s after tomorrow.... progress?
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#989 Postby starsfan65 » Fri Nov 17, 2017 1:17 am

Brent wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:Euro Weeklies control run looks like it has a really big snowstorm. It looks 09/10sih with snow starting in Texas then in a swath across the SE towards a big Noreaster. Outside of that, the mean is torchy looking for all of Dec...

Edit: 2nd half of Dec might not be all bad, some signs of a better pattern.


I saw that posted elsewhere, it was valid for Christmas Eve of all days(the end of it east of here anyway).. :roll: :lol:

The 0z GFS is so boring, no real rain, nothing extreme on temps, but at least, there's no 80s after tomorrow.... progress?
Are we going to have any days below normal?
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#990 Postby Brent » Fri Nov 17, 2017 1:28 am

starsfan65 wrote:
Brent wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:Euro Weeklies control run looks like it has a really big snowstorm. It looks 09/10sih with snow starting in Texas then in a swath across the SE towards a big Noreaster. Outside of that, the mean is torchy looking for all of Dec...

Edit: 2nd half of Dec might not be all bad, some signs of a better pattern.


I saw that posted elsewhere, it was valid for Christmas Eve of all days(the end of it east of here anyway).. :roll: :lol:

The 0z GFS is so boring, no real rain, nothing extreme on temps, but at least, there's no 80s after tomorrow.... progress?
Are we going to have any days below normal?


Not really. Average is low/mid 60s now, looks pretty close to that.
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#991 Postby bubba hotep » Fri Nov 17, 2017 9:48 am

Brent wrote:
starsfan65 wrote:
Brent wrote:
I saw that posted elsewhere, it was valid for Christmas Eve of all days(the end of it east of here anyway).. :roll: :lol:

The 0z GFS is so boring, no real rain, nothing extreme on temps, but at least, there's no 80s after tomorrow.... progress?
Are we going to have any days below normal?


Not really. Average is low/mid 60s now, looks pretty close to that.


It looks lime a really bleh pattern setting up. Dry and seasonally mild. The biggest problem that I see is that the NPAC shuffles around and there is no cold air in WCAN. So, when we do get a break and a cold push comes the source region will be above normal. That happened a lot the last two winters.
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#992 Postby Ntxw » Fri Nov 17, 2017 2:50 pm

12z Euro at the end of it's run has the -NAO sending a deep cold air mass into the E-US, Texas on the edges. Now if we can just send that western ridge more west. Of course...10 days out

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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#993 Postby Ntxw » Fri Nov 17, 2017 3:01 pm

DFW airport as of 2pm is at 83F. The record for the day is 87F back in 2013

Austin is 85 while Houston is 84
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#994 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Fri Nov 17, 2017 3:34 pm

Yeah we need the wave train to kick back west just a bit more.


The Euro has shown the big -NAO trough twice in a row now
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#995 Postby aggiecutter » Fri Nov 17, 2017 4:00 pm

JB's winter forecast. Snowfall on the left and temps on the right.

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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#996 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Fri Nov 17, 2017 4:37 pm

Ntxw wrote:DFW airport as of 2pm is at 83F. The record for the day is 87F back in 2013

Austin is 85 while Houston is 84

84 here. The forecast for today was suppose to be 88, with it being 3:30, I don't see that happening. For tomorrow they've updated the high to 58 with N. winds at 25-30 mph and gusts at 40.
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#997 Postby bubba hotep » Fri Nov 17, 2017 6:57 pm

The 12z Euro EPS seems to offer some hope in the longer range, if only for some rain. Depending on evolution, there could also be some decent cold.
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#998 Postby South Texas Storms » Fri Nov 17, 2017 10:05 pm

bubba hotep wrote:The 12z Euro EPS seems to offer some hope in the longer range, if only for some rain. Depending on evolution, there could also be some decent cold.


I hope it's right. We could really use some rain around here. Been quite dry lately.
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#999 Postby Ntxw » Fri Nov 17, 2017 11:45 pm

0z GFS is back with a cooler Thanksgiving for the eastern half of the state. This s now almost comical :lol:

Still glancing blows Thanksgivings on forward with deep eastern trof
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#1000 Postby Brent » Sat Nov 18, 2017 2:51 am

Ntxw wrote:0z GFS is back with a cooler Thanksgiving for the eastern half of the state. This s now almost comical :lol:

Still glancing blows Thanksgivings on forward with deep eastern trof


meanwhile the Euro has a warmup for Thanksgiving weekend, 50s Wednesday, but 70s Thursday/Friday and 80s Saturday before a front :lol: Even the GFS is near 80 next Saturday(that's the day it had the snowstorm on the 12z Wednesday run :roll: )

These models are still over the place even 5 days out
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